Wazua
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Mumias FY 2014
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Ngoja tu..they start a real estate thing or get Brazilian strategic investor
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 903
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For the past 2 days the trades on this counter have been exceptionally high in volume, there is a high chance someone knows something and is trying to maximize on rewards. “You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Njung'e wrote:Comesa threat to Kenyan sugar industry is one big fallacy.If i may,is there a country in Africa that is a net exporter of sugar other than Mauritius? See here http://www.bakeryinfo.co...p_new_supply_deals.html
As far as buying the rumor & selling the fact of last year's extension, that trade yielded 30%. 2nd round, concerns of cane supply kept growing. Spooked. Thus, took a 8% haircut & folded (2.15-2.05). Now, I also don't view COMESA as big a threat as portrayed. COMESA's my territory. So, my major concern with MSC is cane supply. There was indication from a DN article when a Treasurer of one of the Unions said it would end 'soon'. That's a politico type office too, so, 50/50. The best remedy for cheap sugar imports is a market based one. So it's to keep an eye on those Futures. That's the most credible dis-incentive I can see.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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A World Bank report on the sugar industry in Africa had this to say about Kenya Quote:Kenya – Five state-owned or controlled sugar factories, of which the largest by far is Mumias, (capacity of around 275,000 tonnes p.a. from 2.3m tonnes of cane. Listed on the Nairobi stock market in 2001). Unusually the industry mainly relies on small-scale outgrowers which has made the pricing of sugar cane, controlled by the Government, a politically sensitive issue. Total national sugar production is around 500,000 tonnes and is below potential due to lack of effective support from the Government. Net sugar imports are around 200,000 tonnes, but nevertheless Kenya has an 11,300 tonne export quota to the EU. The way out of the mess that mumias is in today is ONLY by the company producing its own canes. Going through all the other countries highlighted in that report, ALL rely on HUGE SCALE PRODUCTION and not the Kenyan SMALL SCALE FARMERS PRODUCTION. Link for the pdf report is HERE Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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 Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Here is the India food minister breathing fire back at the Millers. V/Interesting. For X-purposes, MSC should indeed renew & revamp the relationship with Farmers. Government open to extending export subsidy to Uttar Pradesh sugar mills: Ram Vilas Paswan: Facing payouts of ... http://bit.ly/1saR1Lj Meanwhile, in Zim & SA, local millers also seek protection. http://www.fin24.com/Com...Sadc-producers-20140724
http://www.fin24.com/Com...ngaat-Zim-unit-20140922 Yup, something gotta give.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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In my opinion Mumias at this point is not worth analyzing in terms of fundamentals. It falls in the category of these laggards and only emotions apply. 4-5 level is not total imaginations. @Hisah / @mnadii, have the charts changed? I move the motion: that 2.00 is the new trusted support for MSC
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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@Cde & dunkang I dont think Mumias woes have to do with the farmers or shortage of sugar as they keep saying. Most of the problem plagues the company are with the management. Look at the company's debt management,then look at how they initiated big projects...their planning was flawed...in that 2 huge projects were launched simultaneously.creating a cash crunch that the company is now trying to deal with. Finally the company farming methods and the inputs given to farmers seems not to have changed with the times...they have not looked into quick maturing varieties....wastage of cane has always been an issue ... and process of farmers dues has also been a concern.... The company needs new blood into its management...but as things stand the performance of this company will continue deteriorating...due to the archaic management style . '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@selah, all the points you've raised are true. My line of thought was 'no cane, no factory'. So, that is number one issue to be solved, the rest can be solved as time goes.
Ideally, I believe that replicating MSC's diversification investments would probably cost double now. So the err IMO was in the tenor of finance. The bankers should be kind.
Bottom line, is to have a factory running at optimal. Cane availability is foremost. The revenue generated will go a long way in financing the solutions to the other problems you've listed.
MSC is still a strong brand. I personally prefer the quality & its looks.
It's stocked as we speak (from Uchumi and lots of it) so there should be some activity going on at the factory.
Let's see.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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It seems the only challenge is that none of wazuans and stock brokers want to be the first to attach a fair value to this counter. Be prepaired to chase it up there the day this bull will discover fangi
I volunteer: Msc : BUY target value: 9.00
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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selah wrote: @Cde & dunkang I dont think Mumias woes have to do with the farmers or shortage of sugar as they keep saying.
Most of the problem plagues the company are with the management.
Look at the company's debt management,then look at how they initiated big projects...their planning was flawed...in that 2 huge projects were launched simultaneously.creating a cash crunch that the company is now trying to deal with.
Finally the company farming methods and the inputs given to farmers seems not to have changed with the times...they have not looked into quick maturing varieties....wastage of cane has always been an issue ... and process of farmers dues has also been a concern....
The company needs new blood into its management...but as things stand the performance of this company will continue deteriorating...due to the archaic management style . http://www.kenyasugar.co...4-15-cane-census-report
http://www.kenyasugar.co...l-june-of-2014-and-2013
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/4/2013 Posts: 255
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Akenyan2014 wrote:It seems the only challenge is that none of wazuans and stock brokers want to be the first to attach a fair value to this counter. Be prepaired to chase it up there the day this bull will discover fangi
I volunteer: Msc : BUY target value: 9.00 I like your optimism 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/30/2008 Posts: 6,029
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Akenyan2014 wrote:It seems the only challenge is that none of wazuans and stock brokers want to be the first to attach a fair value to this counter. Be prepaired to chase it up there the day this bull will discover fangi
I volunteer: Msc : BUY target value: 9.00 I support.EABL could make an announcement to acquire Mumias and convert it to a brewery with the vast land from outgrowers and nucleus estate used to grow sorghum which is a raw material.Such an announcement would be welcome as it could push the share to untested highs of Kshs.200 per share!!!!!! wishful thinking!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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mawinder wrote:Akenyan2014 wrote:It seems the only challenge is that none of wazuans and stock brokers want to be the first to attach a fair value to this counter. Be prepaired to chase it up there the day this bull will discover fangi
I volunteer: Msc : BUY target value: 9.00 I support.EABL could make an announcement to acquire Mumias and convert it to a brewery with the vast land from outgrowers and nucleus estate used to grow sorghum which is a raw material.Such an announcement would be welcome as it could push the share to untested highs of Kshs.200 per share!!!!!! wishful thinking!!!! EABL has more sorghum than it needs. It cancelled contracts with farmers because its warehouses are over-flowing with sorghum. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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All dreams come true espcially when they occur during day light
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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streetwise wrote:All dreams come true especially when they occur during day light You are right because if they occur at night they could turn out to be 'wet' Therefore the msc dreams are valid. On a different note, I only focus on beaten up counters where there is a possibility of turn around exist though in many cases could take a while and quite radical decisions like receivership and forced takeovers.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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@Cde I have quoted some of the challenges highlighted in the report you shared....as you can see management ineptitude and failure to plan ahead might be the reason for the poor performance especially when you consider only 22% of cane is early maturing when the company is facing cane deficit of 1,190,206 tonnes. Quote:1.Millers should adopt yield improvement strategies in order to maximize on their cane yields
2.Mumias,Kibos and Soin sugar mills need to pursue a sustainable cane development plan
commensurate to their crushing capacities
A deliberate policy to commence a phased adoption of early maturing cane varieties is critical to sustainable cane supply
Mumias sugar zone is dominated by two major varieties: CO 945 which occupies about 65.5% (28,668 Ha) and early maturing variety KEN 83–737 which occupies about 22.6% (9,899 Ha).
Mumias is projected to have a cane deficit of 1,190,206 tonnes.
This means Mumias needs to enhance its cane
development besides implementing strategies for yield improvement to ensure sustainable cane
supply.
Mumias should consider negotiating with other millers on a proper cane sharing agreement.
Challenges.
~Delayed farmers’ payment for cane delivered
~Farmer withdrawing from cane farming due failure to break even
~Poor crop husbandry practices
~Unsustainable cane supply to the mill.
~Competition for the raw material from
neighboring millers '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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I have just watched the last batch of MSC sugar @ sub 120/= per kg supply drying up at most local stores.This trend seems to have started since MSC warned of underweight repackaged sugar making its way to the shelves. Higher prices coming, better sales for MSC coming. You can't bury a well established brand. Sugar getting sweeter.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Do you know the capacity mumias can produce for lack of cane?will they sell air or they will import and pack. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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I am down 15% on this on a volume of 350K shares. @hisah..are u still holding this ? 1.5 is surely coming # Never been down this much
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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