The CORD coalition will carry out a large political rally tomorrow at Uhuru Park in Nairobi’s CBD, intended to welcome coalition leader Mr Raila Odinga home from travels abroad. The rally is likely to be very well attended, with reports of significant mobilization in CORD strongholds across the country i.e. parts of Nyanza and Western Provinces, as well as Mombasa and Nairobi, particularly the Kibera and Kasarani areas.

Mr Odinga is expected to land at JKIA in the early afternoon where he will hold a press conference then make a speech to assembled supporters, before moving to Uhuru Park sometime after 1500hrs. Between security operations and CORD supporters, traffic is expected to be heavily congested in both the CBD and along the route to the airport around this period.

The attempt to ban the rally earlier in the week provoked significant political and ethnic tensions. While that order was subsequently rescinded, a great deal of residual tension remains. Consequently there is a moderately elevated risk of violence at the event, as well as in and around CORD stronghold areas, particularly Kisumu, Kibera and Kasarani. If it does occur, the violence is more likely to take place in the aftermath of the rally, as supporters disperse.

There is also some risk of a HSM strike against the rally, though a significant planned security force presence (reportedly 1,000+) may mitigate that to some extent. Preparatory security operations are expected to begin at Uhuru Park from this evening.

Keep safe.

They've finally come to accept the Tyranny of Numbers strategy TNA used. Elections are not won dancing mapambano. 2017 I'm sure they'll be wiser especially given it is Raila's last shot at it succession wise and I think constitutionally. The birth and death records as well as National ID registration figures segmented in 2013 formation still don't favour RAO in the event of any run off. However, perceived treatment of some the fast growing Islamic vote may water down clarity as was in 2013. This assumption leaves out any political performance related variables at the County levels of which individual parties are in full control and accountable to their ethnic blocks. In the past this hasn't mattered but with devolution, a conscious public will hopefully factor this.