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NSE IPO
VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 1:10:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
LMAO... So NSE has written back 115mn for recovery of doubtful debts? We should question what this is and what it was for... I have not looked at this in detail so I will speculate

1) There were brokers who were bailed out by NSE due to the influence of Jimnah Mbaru. Let's assume that these were 'loans' from NSE to the fallen brokers. The other NSE shareholders tried to kick them out, auction their licenses and take back the shares they owned in NSE

2)These 'fallen' brokers went to court and obtained a ruling that despite their 'fallen' status they still owned shares in NSE. This makes sense e.g. a bankrupt firm [e.g. Discount] that owns shares in another firm [e.g. NSE] does not lose the shares by going bankrupt.

3) Now that NSE is going public, these shares owned by the 'fallen' firms can be sold, the money will be used to pay off the creditors, one of which is NSE.

4) So the NSE recovers [or has told the auditors it will] the money and this is written back as profits for 2013. Check if the auditors have qualified the Financial Statements as regards this matter.

5) 2014 will be a good year for the NSE coz of the many Rights [DTB, Jubilee, NIC], the NSE IPO, etc but... it will not be enough to cover 115mn... to will it?

I am not jumping into the IPO until I have more info... A lot more info. In the meantime I hope the price of Centum or HFCK falls! I want back in.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#42 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 2:12:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Tall Order wrote:
@Sparkly, what do you reckon? is NSE IPO a BUY?


I am a conservative investor. Going by @Aguy's analysis and @Mwekez@ji's link, I would adjust for the 2013 unusual item of 162m. Average the 2012 and 2013 earnings, multiple an expected PE of 10.

That gives a fair value of 5.50 IMO.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#43 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 7:12:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the meantime I hope the price of Centum or HFCK falls! I want back in.


You might be waiting an eternity!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#44 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 8:24:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the meantime I hope the price of Centum or HFCK falls! I want back in.


You might be waiting an eternity!

That's OK. There was a market boom on the mid-late 90s when prices of shares jumped as inflation jumped. Then there was the boom in 2003-4. There was the run-up in 2008-10. Then there were crashes.

Have a look at these charts - hopefully they show up. Who knows what will happen next year? Or 2017? Or 2018?

http://live.mystocks.co....id=1405272152959;linked

http://live.mystocks.co....id=1405272243746;linked

If those who know how to post charts from myStocks, please post 10yr charts for HFCK and Centum.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 8:27:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
According to myStocks, HFCK was trading at 48.75 in Oct 2006. Is this pre-bonus? Has the price been adjusted for bonuses? I think there was a Rights Issue since 2006. When did Equity buy in?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#46 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 8:11:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
According to myStocks, HFCK was trading at 48.75 in Oct 2006. Is this pre-bonus? Has the price been adjusted for bonuses? I think there was a Rights Issue since 2006. When did Equity buy in?


equity bought in 2007, together with britam. an international corporation sold its stake to them. and equity is exiting after 400% profit. So I'm guessing there have been some major corporate actions
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#47 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 8:34:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mwekezaji, VVS. thanks for highlighting that fact. so basically the 115m is an exceptional item that won't be there next year.
companies always shore up results before listing.
as @ sparkly said. dividing the 2012 and 2013 earnings may be a better way to judge. im not as enthusiastic as before. ill make a gut call when the hour is nigh.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 9:01:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
Morning @AGuy ... Well, if you recall those friends of @guru267 at HAFR decided to make the profits shine just BEFORE they listed. Don't forget the folks at Longhorn did the same. And both issued profit warnings soon after listing.

So the NSE has decided to 'boost' earnings before the listing. What would be rather amusing is if they had a profit warning after the listing! Though I doubt there will be a profit warning coz of the various Rights Issues [DTB, NIC, Jubilee] planned for 2014. Trading has been good in 1H 2014. Plus there may be a listing by the Rototank guys.

NBK may not make it in 2014. As for KenGen, I am not too sure either. Nevertheless, these will be great for interest in the NSE.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#49 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 10:16:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@vvs, as requested. Herebelow find the Centum 10 year chart though mystocks only has data from mid 2006 to date. Each candlestick shows the high and low for each month with the green candlesticks showing an appreciation of prices and the red ones showing a decline.

@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#50 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 10:18:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
And now HF


@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#51 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 10:27:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
The optimist wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Because i love wazua so much i got my hands dirty and dug up the fundamentos of the NSE.
First, i think it will sky rocket! here are the numbers. please if there's a querry, support it with a calculation.

Im using 212,500,000 as the shares for all calculations. And IPO price at 9.50

FY 2013.

PAT- kshs 262.26 million
EPS- 1.23
P/E- 7.7
NAV- 3.44
P/B- 2.8

FY 2012.

PAT- Kshs 84.8 million
EPS- 0.39
PE- 24.4
NAV- 2.32
P/B- 4.1

Conclusion
The shares are being sold at a premium, which is expected. The company performed very well last year, a record profit in the 60 years it has been a company. We cant assume that the company will always do this well. however the profit level could be a new normal for the good years at the bourse like this year is turning out to be. moreover with new products in the pipeline, this level of profit may at least be maintained in the coming years, as long as a bear doesn't show up.

This IPO gets the coveted AGUYS stamp of approval. I'll be signing myself up for some to ride the the excitement....then.... sell to a kamtu at a yet to be disclosed price smile Drool


Thanks @Aguy

Great job @Aguy and thanks too @Mweke for highlighting that one off event. One thing i know, making money from brokers is one Great task. One would rather be safe than sorry when dealing with these dealmakers.
@SufficientlyP
Aguytrying
#52 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 12:44:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
given the facts that have come to light concerning the written back debts for the NSE. I urge members to exercise caution. the deal is not as good as I thought. decide for yourselves.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#53 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 12:46:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
And now HF



Geez! If that monthly HF cartoon closes with that kind of candlestick hold on tight. Classic upthrust selloff unfolding! Member selling out could have just topped out the price...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#54 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 12:54:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@Hisah, check out the HF RSI as per the cartoonssmile

@SufficientlyP
hisah
#55 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 1:48:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@philanga - Monthly Cartoon with volume. Clearly no demand as per volume and price spread. This thing will fall back to 30.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#56 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 1:52:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
And before I get kicked for hijacking the NSE IPO thread with HF cartoon with @philanga, we duly say sorry for the topic derailment, but had to point out the sellside in that cartoon.

As for the NSE IPO, I'll be staying out of it. If the IPO was launched in 2011 I'd participate. But after a strong bull, not a nice deal for me.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Kastone
#57 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 2:07:27 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/1/2014
Posts: 82
@hisah well put. This stock is only for speculators but not investors
“The beauty of success is that it doesn’t matter how many times you have failed, you only have to be right once and then everyone can tell you how lucky you are.” - Mark Cuban
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#58 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 2:07:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Indeed @Hisah, our sincere apologies.
Now back to matters NSE IPO.....
@SufficientlyP
Aguytrying
#59 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 4:02:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Indeed @Hisah, our sincere apologies.
Now back to matters NSE IPO.....


no apologies necessary. this NSE IPO is turning into dead rubber anyway.

"be wary of new listings during a bull run"
the wise words of Graham ring a bell.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#60 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 4:23:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Indeed @Hisah, our sincere apologies.
Now back to matters NSE IPO.....


no apologies necessary. this NSE IPO is turning into dead rubber anyway.

"be wary of new listings during a bull run"
the wise words of Graham ring a bell.

To date coop and britak are the only guys that got balls to list an IPO in a bear market. Coop was just too daring listing during the GFC while britak did so during the KES collapse as the USD went wild with crazy inflation spike and a dizzy lending rates hike.

But IPOs are always sold in a bull for obvious reasons. Sellers market.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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