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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
snipermnoma
#1941 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 7:49:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. The identity of the ftse 15 n 25 is such a guarded secret. Any leads on where I can search.

Maybe if one buys the mentioned KE NSE CFDs one can be furnished with that info. But it's obvious the top 4 counters are part on these CFDs. Though they too get revised from time to time.


This might help. http://docdro.id/KwkUpxM

The doc clearly states the top 5:
1. Safaricom
2. EABL
3. Equity
4. KCB
5. Coop

Then on the FTSE website, we look at the last two reviews: http://www.ftse.com/prod...tnotices/?id=NSE-KENYA,
6. KQ (replaced ARM in June 2016)
7. HF (replaced CFC in Dec 2015)

There are 9 banks total since we have 4 of those, there are 5 more (8-12)
There are 2 utilities (13-14)
There is 1 Oil and Gas (15)

So we have just under half the list. Can we decode the remaining ones? This classification might help: https://en.wikipedia.org...lassification_Benchmark

My best guess is:
the remaining banks are the next largest by market cap: Stanchart, barclays, DTB, I&M and CFC
the two utilities are Kengen and Kenya Power.
Oil and gas is KenolKobil

My two cents. Mnaonaje?
Pesa Nane
#1942 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 10:11:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. The identity of the ftse 15 n 25 is such a guarded secret. Any leads on where I can search.

Maybe if one buys the mentioned KE NSE CFDs one can be furnished with that info. But it's obvious the top 4 counters are part on these CFDs. Though they too get revised from time to time.


This might help. http://docdro.id/KwkUpxM

The doc clearly states the top 5:
1. Safaricom
2. EABL
3. Equity
4. KCB
5. Coop

Then on the FTSE website, we look at the last two reviews: http://www.ftse.com/prod...tnotices/?id=NSE-KENYA,
6. KQ (replaced ARM in June 2016)
7. HF (replaced CFC in Dec 2015)

There are 9 banks total since we have 4 of those, there are 5 more (8-12)
There are 2 utilities (13-14)
There is 1 Oil and Gas (15)

So we have just under half the list. Can we decode the remaining ones? This classification might help: https://en.wikipedia.org...lassification_Benchmark

My best guess is:
the remaining banks are the next largest by market cap: Stanchart, barclays, DTB, I&M and CFC
the two utilities are Kengen and Kenya Power.
Oil and gas is KenolKobil

My two cents. Mnaonaje?

Delete. NSE25 Index CLICK HERE

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Aguytrying
#1943 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 1:04:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Pesa Nane wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. The identity of the ftse 15 n 25 is such a guarded secret. Any leads on where I can search.

Maybe if one buys the mentioned KE NSE CFDs one can be furnished with that info. But it's obvious the top 4 counters are part on these CFDs. Though they too get revised from time to time.


This might help. http://docdro.id/KwkUpxM

The doc clearly states the top 5:
1. Safaricom
2. EABL
3. Equity
4. KCB
5. Coop

Then on the FTSE website, we look at the last two reviews: http://www.ftse.com/prod...tnotices/?id=NSE-KENYA,
6. KQ (replaced ARM in June 2016)
7. HF (replaced CFC in Dec 2015)

There are 9 banks total since we have 4 of those, there are 5 more (8-12)
There are 2 utilities (13-14)
There is 1 Oil and Gas (15)

So we have just under half the list. Can we decode the remaining ones? This classification might help: https://en.wikipedia.org...lassification_Benchmark

My best guess is:
the remaining banks are the next largest by market cap: Stanchart, barclays, DTB, I&M and CFC
the two utilities are Kengen and Kenya Power.
Oil and gas is KenolKobil

My two cents. Mnaonaje?

Delete. NSE25 Index CLICK HERE



@sniper. Good thinking.

@pesa nane. We're talking about FTSE 25 and 15. Uve linked nse 25
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#1944 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 1:13:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Still way down to go..

Too much supply at good prices with no excitement in demand

KPLC touched 8.55 with no excitement in demand..8.00 will print in a few days time

KCB at the lowest RSI in more than 10 years (14) with supply building at 32 and still no excitement in demand..30 will touch eventually.Will Ksh 30 excite demand ? Doesnt look like

CIC eyeing 4.00 and below

Britam breaking below 13.50 round 2 (There has been lots of supply here)

and soo many others.....

Meanwhile safcom has refused to go past 17.50 and drop below 17.00.Waiting to see who wins

Kcb has leaked in a lot of water. >50% tanking from peak to trough...very interesting.

Initially when the NSE20 started to slide, Kcb was among the few stocks that held ground. Now, on a relative basis, it is front running the market big time. So far Safcom, BAT, eabl and equity are proving to be tough customers for the bear...saving the best for last?


Jubilee is another bluechip that is up there.


Those stocks are the bluest blue chips in the NSE
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#1945 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 8:34:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. The identity of the ftse 15 n 25 is such a guarded secret. Any leads on where I can search.

Maybe if one buys the mentioned KE NSE CFDs one can be furnished with that info. But it's obvious the top 4 counters are part on these CFDs. Though they too get revised from time to time.


This might help. http://docdro.id/KwkUpxM

The doc clearly states the top 5:
1. Safaricom
2. EABL
3. Equity
4. KCB
5. Coop

Then on the FTSE website, we look at the last two reviews: http://www.ftse.com/prod...tnotices/?id=NSE-KENYA,
6. KQ (replaced ARM in June 2016)
7. HF (replaced CFC in Dec 2015)

There are 9 banks total since we have 4 of those, there are 5 more (8-12)
There are 2 utilities (13-14)
There is 1 Oil and Gas (15)

So we have just under half the list. Can we decode the remaining ones? This classification might help: https://en.wikipedia.org...lassification_Benchmark

My best guess is:
the remaining banks are the next largest by market cap: Stanchart, barclays, DTB, I&M and CFC
the two utilities are Kengen and Kenya Power.
Oil and gas is KenolKobil

My two cents. Mnaonaje?

Nice info.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ebenyo
#1946 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 9:07:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Still way down to go..

Too much supply at good prices with no excitement in demand

KPLC touched 8.55 with no excitement in demand..8.00 will print in a few days time

KCB at the lowest RSI in more than 10 years (14) with supply building at 32 and still no excitement in demand..30 will touch eventually.Will Ksh 30 excite demand ? Doesnt look like

CIC eyeing 4.00 and below

Britam breaking below 13.50 round 2 (There has been lots of supply here)

and soo many others.....

Meanwhile safcom has refused to go past 17.50 and drop below 17.00.Waiting to see who wins

Kcb has leaked in a lot of water. >50% tanking from peak to trough...very interesting.

Initially when the NSE20 started to slide, Kcb was among the few stocks that held ground. Now, on a relative basis, it is front running the market big time. So far Safcom, BAT, eabl and equity are proving to be tough customers for the bear...saving the best for last?


Jubilee is another bluechip that is up there.


Those stocks are the bluest blue chips in the NSE


KCB has suffered because of NPLs,upcoming rights issue and scrip dividend conversion price.
The big damage was NPLs.Between Dec 15 to march 16,they increased by 7 % from kshs 23 billion to kshs 30 billion.
In contrast,Equity did well.Their npls stood at kshs 9,078,750,000
on 31st dec 2015.The increase of kshs 1,836,878,000 to stand at kshs 10,915,628,000 as of 31st march 2016,was small.
Kcb exposure to gok bureacracy is to blame for this high increase in npls.But they will do well.Acquision of Chase bank will improve revenue stream.That will cover the shareholder gains erosion from the rights issue.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
muandiwambeu
#1947 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 12:45:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Ebenyo wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Still way down to go..

Too much supply at good prices with no excitement in demand

KPLC touched 8.55 with no excitement in demand..8.00 will print in a few days time

KCB at the lowest RSI in more than 10 years (14) with supply building at 32 and still no excitement in demand..30 will touch eventually.Will Ksh 30 excite demand ? Doesnt look like

CIC eyeing 4.00 and below

Britam breaking below 13.50 round 2 (There has been lots of supply here)

and soo many others.....

Meanwhile safcom has refused to go past 17.50 and drop below 17.00.Waiting to see who wins

Kcb has leaked in a lot of water. >50% tanking from peak to trough...very interesting.

Initially when the NSE20 started to slide, Kcb was among the few stocks that held ground. Now, on a relative basis, it is front running the market big time. So far Safcom, BAT, eabl and equity are proving to be tough customers for the bear...saving the best for last?


Jubilee is another bluechip that is up there.


Those stocks are the bluest blue chips in the NSE


KCB has suffered because of NPLs,upcoming rights issue and scrip dividend conversion price.
The big damage was NPLs.Between Dec 15 to march 16,they increased by 7 % from kshs 23 billion to kshs 30 billion.
In contrast,Equity did well.Their npls stood at kshs 9,078,750,000
on 31st dec 2015.The increase of kshs 1,836,878,000 to stand at kshs 10,915,628,000 as of 31st march 2016,was small.
Kcb exposure to gok bureacracy is to blame for this high increase in npls.But they will do well.Acquision of Chase bank will improve revenue stream.That will cover the shareholder gains erosion from the rights issue.

chase bank will be the killer bullet to kcb. Only a thief can save another thief. what so rosy in chase bank that a big cat in kcb is seeing in chase bank other than a bottomless pit for shareholders wealth. wait and c.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
instinct
#1948 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 8:48:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016
Spikes
#1949 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 4:52:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
mlennyma
#1950 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 5:10:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,176
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.

iam tired of this bearSad
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Othelo
#1951 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 6:05:08 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
mlennyma wrote:
Spikes wrote:
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.

iam tired of this bearSad

Some counters are tempting and therefore buy pole pole in small lots provided the fundies of the company are good/strong #I&M Bank smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
hisah
#1952 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 7:03:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.

The most stunning part is mpesa bank has refused to participate in this bear! If it were to sink 15% the index would be sagging towards 3000!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#1953 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 1:31:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.

The most stunning part is mpesa bank has refused to participate in this bear! If it were to sink 15% the index would be sagging towards 3000!

This bear appears very systematic and kind of a slow burner type. I think every single counter will have its time in the cleaners. That makes for a prolonged/drawn-out sinking till the bottom is reached. It will be slower if it's the small and mid caps taking a beating or faster if it's the heavyweights being hammered. The current run looks focused on those stocks that survived the earlier bloodbath.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Spikes
#1954 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 5:01:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.

The most stunning part is mpesa bank has refused to participate in this bear! If it were to sink 15% the index would be sagging towards 3000!

This bear appears very systematic and kind of a slow burner type. I think every single counter will have its time in the cleaners. That makes for a prolonged/drawn-out sinking till the bottom is reached. It will be slower if it's the small and mid caps taking a beating or faster if it's the heavyweights being hammered. The current run looks focused on those stocks that survived the earlier bloodbath.




Bloodbath is overwhelming . Today NSE20 index closed 3522 points after haircut of 23points down from previous mark. When Safaricom and its peers start weathering the storm let everyone holding cash watch from far as those clinging on stock tighten their belts as their portfolio begin melting down freely.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
snipermnoma
#1955 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 6:17:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Spikes wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
instinct wrote:
The best thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way left is up. Instinct, 2016



I can now agree that @hisah was very bold when he asserted that NSE20 index, today 3555 points, downtrend will be very swift sweeping everybody into the abyss including savvy traders by surprise.

The most stunning part is mpesa bank has refused to participate in this bear! If it were to sink 15% the index would be sagging towards 3000!

This bear appears very systematic and kind of a slow burner type. I think every single counter will have its time in the cleaners. That makes for a prolonged/drawn-out sinking till the bottom is reached. It will be slower if it's the small and mid caps taking a beating or faster if it's the heavyweights being hammered. The current run looks focused on those stocks that survived the earlier bloodbath.




Bloodbath is overwhelming . Today NSE20 index closed 3522 points after haircut of 23points down from previous mark. When Safaricom and its peers start weathering the storm let everyone holding cash watch from far as those clinging on stock tighten their belts as their portfolio begin melting down freely.


How safaricom is holding on is quite amazing. Almost like a lone ranger. Patience needed here to see which way this will sway. Will the bear rope in safaricom?
hisah
#1956 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 6:38:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The toughest thing in the market is not catching the bottom or the top, but knowing when the trend has turned. While we have had a slow mo bull trap, caution should be exercised so that participants avoid a bear trap when the trend shifts to bullish.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1957 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 6:51:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Coop bank is currently testing support at 15 handle. This level had better hold. Break below will be tough to watch! Potential bear targets are 12.00 then 10 and an extension towards 8.00.

Bear Madness Think
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#1958 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 7:09:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I feel the NSE will behave like the previous bull. It will start before elections
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
lochaz-index
#1959 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 8:37:44 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Having outgunned the previous (2011) bear both in terms of longevity and absolute losses - down 2000 points as opposed to about 1800 points back then - this downturn is close to matching and/or beating it on a relative (%) basis. Surpass that and only the 2008 meltdown would have been more severe.

The bloodletting aside; going forward, how will the market handle a highly suspect(deteriorating) economy, reduced inflows and the probable external crisis (in the short to medium term) in some of the biggest economies which more often than not tend to snowball right into our courtyard?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Aguytrying
#1960 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 10:54:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Diamond trust bank bei ya jioni. next bull 300+ guaranteed. This are 2011-2012 levels. Yenywe stock market not a fis market
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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