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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Spikes
#1801 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2016 7:00:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?



100bps is enough to stimulate the economy. Give it time to sink into the entire system.

Liar Liar Liar but if you insist... I'll drink your kool aid.

@Spikes - Where are you based?


Niko hapa hivi mwembeni karibu na minazi mingi.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
VituVingiSana
#1802 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2016 7:09:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
Spikes wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?



100bps is enough to stimulate the economy. Give it time to sink into the entire system.

Liar Liar Liar but if you insist... I'll drink your kool aid.

@Spikes - Where are you based?


Niko hapa hivi mwembeni karibu na minazi mingi.
Then I find your comment "100bps is enough to stimulate the economy" even more ludicrous.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkate_nusu
#1803 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2016 5:14:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?



100bps is enough to stimulate the economy. Give it time to sink into the entire system.

Liar Liar Liar but if you insist... I'll drink your kool aid.

@Spikes - Where are you based?


Niko hapa hivi mwembeni karibu na minazi mingi.
Then I find your comment "100bps is enough to stimulate the economy" even more ludicrous.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
mnandii
#1804 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 8:56:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


And USDKES performs as I stated several months ago! I said KES would strengthen vs USD yet the consensus here at wazua was heavily tilted against me. smile

Now we wait to see the 'rationalization' that fundamentalists will come up with!

Elliott and the markets is the best predictor of fundamentals...Prechter.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
enyands
#1805 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 9:06:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
mnandii wrote:


And USDKES performs as I stated several months ago! I said KES would strengthen vs USD yet the consensus here at wazua was heavily tilted against me. smile

Now we wait to see the 'rationalization' that fundamentalists will come up with!

Elliott and the markets is the best predictor of fundamentals...Prechter.



It's been a while sir. 1 yr or 6 months . Did you go mountain climbing or hibernation ??Laughing out loudly good to hear from you mnandii
Spikes
#1806 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 9:13:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:


And USDKES performs as I stated several months ago! I said KES would strengthen vs USD yet the consensus here at wazua was heavily tilted against me. smile

Now we wait to see the 'rationalization' that fundamentalists will come up with!

Elliott and the markets is the best predictor of fundamentals...Prechter.



It's been a while sir. 1 yr or 6 months . Did you go mountain climbing or hibernation ??Laughing out loudly good to hear from you mnandii



These guys the likes of @mnandii don't hibernate. They only log on as 'guests.' They are ever available counted as unsigned up.

Thanks @mnandii for your significant contribution.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
lochaz-index
#1807 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 4:34:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?

Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
VituVingiSana
#1808 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 4:52:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?

Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot.

Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Spikes
#1809 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 5:07:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?

Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot.

Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore.



Inflation has been coming down over the last couple of months-a good signal to policy makers. But the economy is worried on the Mpigs's attempt to mutilate lower prices, by planning to increase kerosine price, Wanjiku has been enjoying. Budget reading on Wednesday this week perhaps has hidden cards. If the budget contains taxation changes in favour of ordinary man then expect a rally. Investors are quiet now their inaction is clearly waiting for the budget so that the direction of the exchange can be predictable. CBK's monetary policy was positive move. As for now fiscal policy highly anticipated this week will give us a hint to hold/accumulate/selloff. I am hoping for the best despite KRA's lamentations of missing revenue collections targets.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
VituVingiSana
#1810 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 5:40:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.

In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.

Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.

In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.

Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#1811 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 5:42:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.

In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.

Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.

In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.

Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities.


I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
lochaz-index
#1812 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 5:49:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?

Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot.

Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore.

Systemic malaise is the culprit here and judging by the budget summary presented, things will move from bad to worse. Treasury is still powering through with an expansionary budget(elections in mind) on the back of dwindling revenue collections. There is a lot less wriggle room for increasing taxes and it almost always ends up being counterproductive in a downturn. That leaves debt(especially domestic) to do the heavy lifting. KES permitting, even a massive rate cut won't do the trick this time.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Spikes
#1813 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 5:56:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.

In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.

Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.

In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.

Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities.


I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed.



The argument that taxing an item highly will discourage its usage is medieval and irrelevant in the 21st century. Government hiked taxes on polythene bags amid increased appetite for the wrappers by nearly all vendors countrywide. It is imperative to introduce laws that are environmentally friendly or implement alternative consumption of other energy sources in a manner rational to the populace and logical for quick uptake.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
VituVingiSana
#1814 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 6:28:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.

In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.

Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.

In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.

Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities.


I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed.

Diesel is highly taxed though about 10/- less than petrol in Kenya. It remains the fuel of choice for trucks/lorries even in the developed countries. I don't know enough about automotive/chemical engineering but there may be a reason why large vehicles use diesel.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1815 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 6:33:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
Spikes wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.

In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.

Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.

In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.

Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities.


I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed.



The argument that taxing an item highly will discourage its usage is medieval and irrelevant in the 21st century. Government hiked taxes on polythene bags amid increased appetite for the wrappers by nearly all vendors countrywide. It is imperative to introduce laws that are environmentally friendly or implement alternative consumption of other energy sources in a manner rational to the populace and logical for quick uptake.

You are right. How could we doubt your wisdom? Forgive us.
* @VVS tears up his economic textbooks that discuss Elastic Demand, Inelastic Demand and Substitution. *
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#1816 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 6:41:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
Spikes wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.

In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.

Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.

In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.

Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities.


I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed.



The argument that taxing an item highly will discourage its usage is medieval and irrelevant in the 21st century. Government hiked taxes on polythene bags amid increased appetite for the wrappers by nearly all vendors countrywide. It is imperative to introduce laws that are environmentally friendly or implement alternative consumption of other energy sources in a manner rational to the populace and logical for quick uptake.



That was stopped, wahindis in the industry lobbied the GoK of the day that if the tax was to be hiked, then there would be job losses and minimal investments.

In the west diesel is taxed higher than the normal petroleum fuel (pollution tax). It is believed that the higher tax will encourage the production of lower emission vehicles

@vvs on why trailers trucks and lorries use diesel, better energy content per gallon than petrol. The engines last longer as per some mechanic i spoke to a while ago.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#1817 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 6:57:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:


And USDKES performs as I stated several months ago! I said KES would strengthen vs USD yet the consensus here at wazua was heavily tilted against me. smile

Now we wait to see the 'rationalization' that fundamentalists will come up with!

Elliott and the markets is the best predictor of fundamentals...Prechter.
How does that work re: currencies?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1818 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 7:00:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR?

Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot.

Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore.

Systemic malaise is the culprit here and judging by the budget summary presented, things will move from bad to worse. Treasury is still powering through with an expansionary budget(elections in mind) on the back of dwindling revenue collections. There is a lot less wriggle room for increasing taxes and it almost always ends up being counterproductive in a downturn. That leaves debt(especially domestic) to do the heavy lifting. KES permitting, even a massive rate cut won't do the trick this time.


A few posts earlier weren't you the one who said a 100bps rate cut is a stimulant?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1819 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 7:08:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
@murchr

Seems diesel is the 'better' fuel as far as 'energy' is concerned
http://www.fool.com/inve...r-fuel-and-vehicle.aspx

Recent advances in low-emission engines despite the VW crisis should make diesel more palatable going forward. Maintenance is key for diesel engines, the matatus belching black smoke are improperly maintained. In many "Western" [eg USA, UK] countries, all vehicles over a certain age have to go for emission testing. I doubt 95% of Kenyan matatus of 4+ years can pass this test!

"Consumers may think that because of the improved fuel efficiency a diesel provides, it's a better choice for the environment. That's not entirely true: diesel vehicles produce dirty emissions, and our nation's more strict emissions regulations are among the reasons the vehicles aren't as common in the U.S. as they are in Europe. While today's diesel cars are much cleaner than in decades past, some of the emissions include carcinogens, soot, and nitrous oxide -- if you drive significantly more miles in the city and believe in taking care of the environment, a diesel may not be for you.

One pro for diesel engines is that they don't use spark plugs or distributors, which means there is no need for ignition tune-ups. On the flip side, diesels need to be regularly maintained or they can require extensive repairs, and diesel mechanics work at a much more expensive rate."

"Ultimately, if you're driving between 7,500 and 10,000 miles annually it'll be difficult to save enough on fuel costs to justify a diesel purchase. If you drive significantly more miles than average, have a lopsided amount of miles driven on the highway rather than in the city, or are looking into a vehicle that requires premium gasoline, a diesel option is certainly a good one to consider further."

No wonder diesel lorries and pick-ups are preferred coz of the significant mileage they travel in a year. Nairobi-Mombasa is 300 miles. One return trip a week = 50 x 300 x 2 = 30,000 miles.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#1820 Posted : Monday, June 06, 2016 7:19:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
VituVingiSana wrote:
@murchr

Seems diesel is the 'better' fuel as far as 'energy' is concerned
http://www.fool.com/inve...r-fuel-and-vehicle.aspx

Recent advances in low-emission engines despite the VW crisis should make diesel more palatable going forward. Maintenance is key for diesel engines, the matatus belching black smoke are improperly maintained. In many "Western" [eg USA, UK] countries, all vehicles over a certain age have to go for emission testing. I doubt 95% of Kenyan matatus of 4+ years can pass this test!

"Consumers may think that because of the improved fuel efficiency a diesel provides, it's a better choice for the environment. That's not entirely true: diesel vehicles produce dirty emissions, and our nation's more strict emissions regulations are among the reasons the vehicles aren't as common in the U.S. as they are in Europe. While today's diesel cars are much cleaner than in decades past, some of the emissions include carcinogens, soot, and nitrous oxide -- if you drive significantly more miles in the city and believe in taking care of the environment, a diesel may not be for you.

One pro for diesel engines is that they don't use spark plugs or distributors, which means there is no need for ignition tune-ups. On the flip side, diesels need to be regularly maintained or they can require extensive repairs, and diesel mechanics work at a much more expensive rate."

"Ultimately, if you're driving between 7,500 and 10,000 miles annually it'll be difficult to save enough on fuel costs to justify a diesel purchase. If you drive significantly more miles than average, have a lopsided amount of miles driven on the highway rather than in the city, or are looking into a vehicle that requires premium gasoline, a diesel option is certainly a good one to consider further."

No wonder diesel lorries and pick-ups are preferred coz of the significant mileage they travel in a year. Nairobi-Mombasa is 300 miles. One return trip a week = 50 x 300 x 2 = 30,000 miles.


Agreed, but the VW scandal kinda killed the "clean diesel" dream.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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