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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@sparkly, congrats with kengen. I remember the discussion. If global indices nosedive I don't see how NSE20 will brave that storm. Frontier markets will be badly shredded by that capital flight. Another surprise rate hike by the Fed and it's party over now that Japan's 40 year bond is heading into negative interest rate zone! This is a nasty deflation setup in the making. The way the storm is gathering pace is not encouraging at all with brexit approaching, anti EU sentiments getting stronger and a Trump presidency on the way! The next USD rally will destroy everything as it unleashes that crazy deflation monster. Who made this movie?! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:Global markets looking ripe for harvest! expound mkubwa Bulls trying hard to push back the bearish storm that sent the markets plunging last August. The pattern almost resembles March 2008. If it plays out the same way, sharp plunge ahead! Caution in these markets!
@SPT, sparkly, mnandii review your charts. If bulls fail here, you know what next... Bailed out on news Dow hit 18,000 pts. Very risky business......monkey business with Yellen on the driver's seat. Currently looking at the weekly and monthly charts for the Dow and the story is the same. #HowLong You've seen how BoJ's inaction has caused Nikkei bulls to get repelled by the 17000 resistance zone. Meanwhile Fed continues to send mixed signals. The next rate hike will be a nasty surprise.
NSE20 is currently in a bollinger bands squeeze since late February. Volatility spike looms. Sizable up or down move very soon. That timing with the global markets on the edge will have sizable power when the moves begin! Went long on Kengen between 5.5-6 still well in the green. Building a cash stockpile from my core business to throw at the bull later in the year. I believe the NSE will trade sideways at least to the end of the year. I concur. Can't see any bull between now and the end of the year. Actually, I think the bear is yet to have its fill. Most of the current prices are yet to reach the levels they were at before the september 2014 bull rush. Capital preservation is paramount. The bottom is not even on the horizon. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:@sparkly, congrats with kengen. I remember the discussion.
If global indices nosedive I don't see how NSE20 will brave that storm. Frontier markets will be badly shredded by that capital flight. Another surprise rate hike by the Fed and it's party over now that Japan's 40 year bond is heading into negative interest rate zone! This is a nasty deflation setup in the making. The way the storm is gathering pace is not encouraging at all with brexit approaching, anti EU sentiments getting stronger and a Trump presidency on the way! The next USD rally will destroy everything as it unleashes that crazy deflation monster.
Who made this movie?! Do you believe the Fed is running this show? Coz I think they are also trapped. Doesn't matter what they do the dollar will get very strong at least for year. I particularly like how the nikkei threw a jumbo tantrum at the BoJ. Fascinating. US Q1 GDP registered a meager 0.5% growth(irregardless of all the fiddling with the formulas). A contraction in Q2 or Q3 looks pretty likely at this point. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 April movement Open - 3982 High - 4010 Low - 3901 Close - 4009 Consolidation. Next move is critical... Failure to at least test 4400 means the bears (resistance lined up at 4000, 4100 and 4200 levels) will overrun the bulls and take out the Jan 3747 print, which is the year low. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:@sparkly, congrats with kengen. I remember the discussion.
If global indices nosedive I don't see how NSE20 will brave that storm. Frontier markets will be badly shredded by that capital flight. Another surprise rate hike by the Fed and it's party over now that Japan's 40 year bond is heading into negative interest rate zone! This is a nasty deflation setup in the making. The way the storm is gathering pace is not encouraging at all with brexit approaching, anti EU sentiments getting stronger and a Trump presidency on the way! The next USD rally will destroy everything as it unleashes that crazy deflation monster.
Who made this movie?! Do you believe the Fed is running this show? Coz I think they are also trapped. Doesn't matter what they do the dollar will get very strong at least for year. I particularly like how the nikkei threw a jumbo tantrum at the BoJ. Fascinating. US Q1 GDP registered a meager 0.5% growth(irregardless of all the fiddling with the formulas). A contraction in Q2 or Q3 looks pretty likely at this point. Initially the movie was coordinated as the CBs ganged up and bulldozed the markets. But after that Dec Fed rate hike everything is now turning into a noisy orchestra! Slowly the market is calling the CBs bluff as it realizes they're losing control. This tape is going crazy and very soon the freak show will strike based on the yellow metal behaviour!
Trust is about to evaporate and get very expensive, parabolic expensive!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller.  NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Taxman faults CBK bid to have banks increase bad debts class
The taxman is now crying foul about the strict NPL policy being enforced by CBK. The taxman can see the economy is still limping which will mess the collection targets again.
Gok debt drama... Can gok afford to cut spending while the private sector is limping? Will CBK cut rates and let KES slide? Add re-election pressure in that equation too. Let's see who will blink first.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Taxman faults CBK bid to have banks increase bad debts class
The taxman is now crying foul about the strict NPL policy being enforced by CBK. The taxman can see the economy is still limping which will mess the collection targets again.
Gok debt drama... Can gok afford to cut spending while the private sector is limping? Will CBK cut rates and let KES slide? Add re-election pressure in that equation too. Let's see who will blink first.
Wonder why Old Mutual staked their reputation to recommend NBK and Uchumi. Internet never forgets http://www.theeastafrica...2/-/n15he8/-/index.html
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Geez! OM picks were quite bizarre. But I guess coming from the extreme pessimism of 2011 they expected the market recovery to pull up everything.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Taxman faults CBK bid to have banks increase bad debts class
The taxman is now crying foul about the strict NPL policy being enforced by CBK. The taxman can see the economy is still limping which will mess the collection targets again.
Gok debt drama... Can gok afford to cut spending while the private sector is limping? Will CBK cut rates and let KES slide? Add re-election pressure in that equation too. Let's see who will blink first.
I find that to be very irresponsible and short sighted coming from the taxman.At some point the music has to stop and its better sooner rather than later
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. I wish my gadget is big enough to accommodate tools to highlight most striking statements. 'The real bear mauls rapidly.' I am keen this time round to alight at a price correction rally and sit tight to watch ugly scenes unfold. I have sensed signs of dramatic financial earthquake coming soon at NSE. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. Nbk's all time low is 8bob? I always thought it to be lower in pre-kibaki/early kibaki times? The narrow range of 3700-4000 has held on for what seems forever. If the market snaps out of that safe range things won't be pretty... 2007/2008 comes to mind. The market has a way of fooling you into complacency and then the grizzly pounces. Sideways action is boring if it's not at the bottom(gives guys time to accumulate) or at the top(affords investors time to jump ship). The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply! With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller. NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank! True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months.. Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!
Post #1160: Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2015 3:48:43 PM
The wedge formation finally had its breakout and NBK prices have collapsed as expected and tested the 8.00 handle on the spike selloff. Wedge breakouts are powerful. More selling pressure is coming!
The banking thriller has been as expected. We still have the gok debt thriller coming up. Caution in this market. Bears still going strong as the counter slips below the 9.00 handle. All time low at 8.00.
NSE20 is back at the April 14 level at 3901 as it closed at 3916. Below this level next support is 3850 then 3795. If bears push things further 3745 the low of the year (Jan 26) is the next target. Then we're off to new lows towards 3500 then 3300 and an overshoot at 3155 (the November 2011 low).
I'll keep stressing it, caution in this market. 2015 was bearish, but a slow bear. The real bear mauls rapidly. That capitulation (rollercoaster to hell) is what usually marks market bottoms. I like "roller coaster to hell" been waiting for it in 2015 to no avail. Still saving up to take advantage The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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It appears to be a long wait. "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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 As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting  #StockUp @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp The blue section posts are now in winter. Perfect. If we get that overshoot dip towards 3500, the recovery stars will align perfectly for the next bullish climb above 6161 all time highs. If NSE20 had short-selling that short squeeze as the bulls took over would fuel that rally above 7000pts. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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duplicate. deleted $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp The blue section posts are now in winter. Perfect. If we get that overshoot dip towards 3500, the recovery stars will align perfectly for the next bullish climb above 6161 all time highs. If NSE20 had short-selling that short squeeze as the bulls took over would fuel that rally above 7000pts. i have sharpened my knife to eat that bull however long it takes to arrive "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp If indeed this is the bottom it would be a very unusual one. I just don't think it is. Probably a fake out of some kind is the more likely scenario here. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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