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186 Pages«<8384858687>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mlennyma
#1681 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2016 12:11:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,176
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
@vvs, do you see the banking consolidation I have been seeing? A number of small fish will be swallowed.

especially because the masses are scared to the core
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#1682 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2016 4:48:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977


Those bondholders that bought the recently floated bank bonds will be sweating for a while. This is now sheer crime.

This bidless period is going to be a global phenomenon when it checks in.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#1683 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2016 5:17:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:


Those bondholders that bought the recently floated bank bonds will be sweating for a while. This is now sheer crime.

This bidless period is going to be a global phenomenon when it checks in.



NSE 20share index pushes up to 4050s points.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Spikes
#1684 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2016 6:09:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:


Those bondholders that bought the recently floated bank bonds will be sweating for a while. This is now sheer crime.

This bidless period is going to be a global phenomenon when it checks in.



NSE 20share index pushes up to 4050s points.



Is this rally reliable?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
hisah
#1685 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 7:08:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:


Those bondholders that bought the recently floated bank bonds will be sweating for a while. This is now sheer crime.

This bidless period is going to be a global phenomenon when it checks in.



NSE 20share index pushes up to 4050s points.



Is this rally reliable?

What is a reliable rally? If you meant sustainable it depends with the sentiment. I'm beginning to see a scenario where the NSE20 outperforms the NASI as select bluechips hog the bids. If the bond market comes apart that will fuel this analogy. But the ground is still unstable for bulls with all the banking sector drama. So if bonds are dumped NSE will bottom and stocks will benefit, but select stocks. Now find out the select stocks that big money can be packed in.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1686 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 7:20:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KCB is very bold to attempt a rights issue in this environment with all the banking drama. Why come for rights at this time? The tense market can easily assume all is not well internally if you're raising cash in such stormy weather! As seen in another thread I also think buying coop makes more sense now than kcb or equity. I still have issues with member coz Helios sold their gold (equity shares). Why sell this gold to pay for Orange acquisition?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#1687 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 7:38:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
KCB is very bold to attempt a rights issue in this environment with all the banking drama. Why come for rights at this time? The tense market can easily assume all is not well internally if you're raising cash in such stormy weather! As seen in another thread I also think buying coop makes more sense now than kcb or equity. I still have issues with member coz Helios sold their gold (equity shares). Why sell this gold to pay for Orange acquisition?



They sold as they anticipated bigger returns in Orange than holding a stake in Equity.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Aguytrying
#1688 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 12:15:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
KCB is very bold to attempt a rights issue in this environment with all the banking drama. Why come for rights at this time? The tense market can easily assume all is not well internally if you're raising cash in such stormy weather! As seen in another thread I also think buying coop makes more sense now than kcb or equity. I still have issues with member coz Helios sold their gold (equity shares). Why sell this gold to pay for Orange acquisition?



They sold as they anticipated bigger returns in Orange than holding a stake in Equity.


I wish it was that simple, but it's not.

@hisah. Rights issue at this time can cause doubts in the bank
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Spikes
#1689 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 12:28:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
This bear looks relentless and ganging up with market weaknesses to start its downward leg. Most Wazuans will be found off guard and apparently overwhelmed by massive losses as they exit downwards . Even value stocks will feel the heat of financial erosion. Stick to old but all time relevant adage buy when there is bloodbath in the streets.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
mlennyma
#1690 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 12:43:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,176
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
KCB is very bold to attempt a rights issue in this environment with all the banking drama. Why come for rights at this time? The tense market can easily assume all is not well internally if you're raising cash in such stormy weather! As seen in another thread I also think buying coop makes more sense now than kcb or equity. I still have issues with member coz Helios sold their gold (equity shares). Why sell this gold to pay for Orange acquisition?



They sold as they anticipated bigger returns in Orange than holding a stake in Equity.


I wish it was that simple, but it's not.

@hisah. Rights issue at this time can cause doubts in the bank

yesterday i reduced significantly my kcb holding, i intend to add abit on the rights thing and wait to add sub rights price
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
moneydust
#1691 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 1:04:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
Aguytrying wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
KCB is very bold to attempt a rights issue in this environment with all the banking drama. Why come for rights at this time? The tense market can easily assume all is not well internally if you're raising cash in such stormy weather! As seen in another thread I also think buying coop makes more sense now than kcb or equity. I still have issues with member coz Helios sold their gold (equity shares). Why sell this gold to pay for Orange acquisition?



They sold as they anticipated bigger returns in Orange than holding a stake in Equity.


I wish it was that simple, but it's not.

@hisah. Rights issue at this time can cause doubts in the bank


KCB rights issue is very suspect..coupled with the failure to pay a reasonable cash dividend inspite of the huge profits.
mlennyma
#1692 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 3:11:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,176
Location: nairobi
What a market bleeding Friday?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#1693 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 3:51:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
What a market bleeding Friday?


I've seen the sea of red, the bear lives
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#1694 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 3:53:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
moneydust wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
KCB is very bold to attempt a rights issue in this environment with all the banking drama. Why come for rights at this time? The tense market can easily assume all is not well internally if you're raising cash in such stormy weather! As seen in another thread I also think buying coop makes more sense now than kcb or equity. I still have issues with member coz Helios sold their gold (equity shares). Why sell this gold to pay for Orange acquisition?



They sold as they anticipated bigger returns in Orange than holding a stake in Equity.


I wish it was that simple, but it's not.

@hisah. Rights issue at this time can cause doubts in the bank


KCB rights issue is very suspect..coupled with the failure to pay a reasonable cash dividend inspite of the huge profits.


I couldn't agree more. They are paying less dividend than equity and want 10bn from a rights issue. Are the strapped for cash?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#1695 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2016 3:55:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,176
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
What a market bleeding Friday?


I've seen the sea of red, the bear lives

mr bear lives,and reigns the hague thing had no effect at all
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#1696 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2016 12:02:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
@vvs, do you see the banking consolidation I have been seeing? A number of small fish will be swallowed.

Who will want to buy these small firms unless the DD can be done in depth?
I see the current status continuing as is but there may be some takeovers by FOREIGN banks/investors rather than local banks.

Other small banks may be bought by non-banks eg SACCOs...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
enyands
#1697 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2016 1:08:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Let simba come down ,let member come down let ushirika come down too. Can't wait.
muandiwambeu
#1698 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2016 12:56:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
enyands wrote:
Let simba come down ,let member come down let ushirika come down too. Can't wait.

somebody had a juicy adage a month or so, follow big money, I hope he did not follow with big money to get balkanised big time as well. waiting sub 30/=. the music just stopped without warning.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Spikes
#1699 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2016 12:13:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
muandiwambeu wrote:
enyands wrote:
Let simba come down ,let member come down let ushirika come down too. Can't wait.

somebody had a juicy adage a month or so, follow big money, I hope he did not follow with big money to get balkanised big time as well. waiting sub 30/=. the music just stopped without warning.



Reds did it last week. As I can see they are reorganising for a massive nosedive . Woe to those holding precarious positions now!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
hisah
#1700 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2016 12:21:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I can see CBK is willing to offer PPT services to combat the teetering confidence in the banking sector. This is an admission that some bad apples are still lurking around.

Will CBK cut the CBR rate significantly in order to offer a robust support base? If they do so, NSE will celebrate that heavy PPT action. But the side-effects are a weakening KES. Tough choices. S&P KE rating update is coming up this week. Gok will struggle trying to sell the 2nd eurobond from the current events and another negative rating review will also not help at all.

I expect NSE20 to outperform NASI as return of capital rather than return on capital becomes the primary focus until the sentiment changes. Trading or trading in flight to quality markets is a very tough assignment that Wanjikus will hate.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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