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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Muthawamunene
#581 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 9:24:12 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?


Nope. None at all. Which means you should be holding cash (or any non equity related security) on the ready.

Reversal in the offing, things are looking up again

Recovery in the works!


You're too hopeful.

Yesterday's fluke (and the ones coming in the near future) is like when a terminally ill patient whose pain eases for a day or two.

As @hisa said, "Nothing has changed in the econ macros and CBK's mood is still for liquidity tightening."

But it would be a good time to start accumulating at a leisurely pace. Look towards 2017 (mid to end year), its only about 20 months away. And the dividends on your accumulated counters wont be too bad.


I am especially worried about the dollar denominated debts floating about. I think I will start looking at companies that have more shilling denominated financing.
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Muthawamunene
#582 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 9:39:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Muthawamunene wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?


Nope. None at all. Which means you should be holding cash (or any non equity related security) on the ready.

Reversal in the offing, things are looking up again

Recovery in the works!


You're too hopeful.

Yesterday's fluke (and the ones coming in the near future) is like when a terminally ill patient whose pain eases for a day or two.

As @hisa said, "Nothing has changed in the econ macros and CBK's mood is still for liquidity tightening."

But it would be a good time to start accumulating at a leisurely pace. Look towards 2017 (mid to end year), its only about 20 months away. And the dividends on your accumulated counters wont be too bad.


I am especially worried about the dollar denominated debts floating about. I think I will start looking at companies that have more shilling denominated financing.


In any case, it is not frequent that one gets to truly invest(as opposed to trading) in the main stock exchange. The drop is welcome as long as one has alternative sources of income.
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hisah
#583 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 2:03:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Insurance stocks rebounding furiously smile The next down leg will be swift! Those ugly gaps on the rebound offer weak support.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#584 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 7:27:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out around 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#585 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 8:34:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out around 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.


I'm enjoying the show so far. Hfck thinks it can runaway but I'll be waiting down there at sub 18
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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sparkly
#586 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 9:24:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out arr ound 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.

Totally agree. rebound then we shall be testing 4000. Damn I should have chosen a carrer in stock analysis!
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Aguytrying
#587 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2015 12:04:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out arr ound 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.

Totally agree. rebound then we shall be testing 4000. Damn I should have chosen a carrer in stock analysis!


The investors always make more than the workers. And work less. Make that money πŸ’΅
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#588 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2015 3:05:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out arr ound 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.

Totally agree. rebound then we shall be testing 4000. Damn I should have chosen a carrer in stock analysis!


The investors always make more than the workers. And work less. Make that money πŸ’΅

We take the risk. And there's no guarantee about the return. We pay bills on the 30/31 not receive a salary. So we deserve the money.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#589 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2015 8:31:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out arr ound 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.

Totally agree. rebound then we shall be testing 4000. Damn I should have chosen a carrer in stock analysis!


The investors always make more than the workers. And work less. Make that money πŸ’΅

We take the risk. And there's no guarantee about the return. We pay bills on the 30/31 not receive a salary. So we deserve the money.


I like a quote by kiyosaki. "your bosses job is not to make you rich. It's to give you a job. It's your job to make yourself rich"
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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snipermnoma
#590 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 2:39:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
I have been sitting it out, exited a bit too early but the clouds turned grey and my risk tolerance threshold was crossed so I liquidated a couple of months ago. Now the bear is roaming in town and bargains are going to be available. I dare say with the oncoming dip, the problem is going to be too many options available. Which counters to pick up and which ones to pass. Better start your planning now so that when time comes you strike without second guessing yourself.
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mnandii
#591 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 5:11:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Relax!

Don't panic.

A strong bounce in the NSE 20 Share Index may yet be on the cards!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#592 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 5:17:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


I don't understand the disparity in the reported NSE 20 Share Index close yesterday (30th July, 2015). NSE website shows 4605.25 yet both Financial Times and www.investing.com show 4487.38

Financial Times

Investing.com
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#593 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 12:27:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:


I don't understand the disparity in the reported NSE 20 Share Index close yesterday (30th July, 2015). NSE website shows 4605.25 yet both Financial Times and www.investing.com show 4487.38

Financial Times

Investing.com

Just had a look at the price list as per 30th close.

Dear NSE it's impossible for NSE20 index to have closed at 4605 yesterday. Unless someone is cooking the index formula. There is no way the index was up more than 1% yesterday without while the heavyweights comprising the index hardly moved up!

@mnandii, the 4400 zone pin off bounce is dead without mpesa bank and the top 6 not participating. Mpesa bank is closing the week below the 15 handle!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#594 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 1:40:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I don't understand the disparity in the reported NSE 20 Share Index close yesterday (30th July, 2015). NSE website shows 4605.25 yet both Financial Times and www.investing.com show 4487.38

Financial Times

Investing.com

Just had a look at the price list as per 30th close.

Dear NSE it's impossible for NSE20 index to have closed at 4605 yesterday. Unless someone is cooking the index formula. There is no way the index was up more than 1% yesterday without while the heavyweights comprising the index hardly moved up!

@mnandii, the 4400 zone pin off bounce is dead without mpesa bank and the top 6 not participating. Mpesa bank is closing the week below the 15 handle!


Yesterday the index was down 0.99% according to SIB.

I wish you guys could see the smile on my face when i saw safaricom at 14.00

@hisah, mnadii. you use machines (charts) to tell the weather. Im like those traditional rain makers using traditional methods.

Just the other day I foretold that When the big three fall, they will pull the market down, and it has come to pass. Safcom now at 14.00, KCB looking to breach below 50, and equity looking to breach below 40.

All these wonders happened when the market was correcting as stated by @hisah in red. Im watching those 3.

again i repeat. " Imagine getting safaricom at basement price before september 2015. In time for the dividend?" smile
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#595 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 1:46:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
snipermnoma wrote:
I have been sitting it out, exited a bit too early but the clouds turned grey and my risk tolerance threshold was crossed so I liquidated a couple of months ago. Now the bear is roaming in town and bargains are going to be available. I dare say with the oncoming dip, the problem is going to be too many options available. Which counters to pick up and which ones to pass. Better start your planning now so that when time comes you strike without second guessing yourself.


Way ahead of you. I have targets and target prices(range). compiled in february 2015. But I see you are hunting them in sniperly fashion as well
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#596 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 1:57:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closes @4532 reclaiming the 4500 handle. @maka don't worry the rebound has to coming now after testing 4400 range the selling was over-extended. But the steam will likely ran out around 4700 - 4800 range which was previous support. I expect selling pressure for those trapped to resume there for the next down leg.


From the signs of the big 3 or big 6. The next leg down will be swift and brutal. Infact even today the NSE has lost many points-lets see.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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littledove
#597 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 1:59:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 895
Location: sky
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I don't understand the disparity in the reported NSE 20 Share Index close yesterday (30th July, 2015). NSE website shows 4605.25 yet both Financial Times and www.investing.com show 4487.38

Financial Times

Investing.com

Just had a look at the price list as per 30th close.

Dear NSE it's impossible for NSE20 index to have closed at 4605 yesterday. Unless someone is cooking the index formula. There is no way the index was up more than 1% yesterday without while the heavyweights comprising the index hardly moved up!

@mnandii, the 4400 zone pin off bounce is dead without mpesa bank and the top 6 not participating. Mpesa bank is closing the week below the 15 handle!


Yesterday the index was down 0.99% according to SIB.

I wish you guys could see the smile on my face when i saw safaricom at 14.00

@hisah, mnadii. you use machines (charts) to tell the weather. Im like those traditional rain makers using traditional methods.

Just the other day I foretold that When the big three fall, they will pull the market down, and it has come to pass. Safcom now at 14.00, KCB looking to breach below 50, and equity looking to breach below 40.All these wonders happened when the market was correcting as stated by @hisah in red. Im watching those 3.

again i repeat. " Imagine getting safaricom at basement price before september 2015. In time for the dividend?" smile

panic as 40 handle caves in for equity, currently trading at 37.25, simba on its way !
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Angelica _ann
#598 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 2:35:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
KCB printed 45.50 bob okay!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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hisah
#599 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 2:41:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The carnage is starting to shape up! Hapa kuna watu watalia...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#600 Posted : Friday, July 31, 2015 2:47:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Its bad..very bad

Those critical multi year support are being broken like i dont know what

β€œThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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