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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.  We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Pray do tell where you'll head out to?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Pray do tell where you'll head out to? Aha. Now you want to know what the prophet thinks. I told you this guy knows his stuff. he called the current market decline in Q3 2014 when folks were busy buying equity at 63.00. welcome to the followers The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mukiri - I'm in the commodities market this year shorting oil, copper, coffee, gold etc. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength 
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
 The market decides the rates. MPC only responds.. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
The market decides the rates. MPC only responds.. And I still maintain that 108/- to the dollar will not be breached. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The other day I said Equity was making dangerous moves by announcing loans against shares. Today KCB makes its own mistake: Quote:Uchumi takes additional Sh500m debt from KCB
Retail chain Uchumi Supermarkets said on Tuesday day it had struck a Sh500 million loan deal with KCB as it awaits the outcome of a forensic audit that will determine the company’s future.
linkOnce a comapny is in its death bed (like Mumias and Kenya Airways), and especially in the NSE bear market we foresee via Elliott waves, any rescue plans involving money will suck in the rescuers. KCB may soon have to write off this 500 Million shilling life-line it is throwing carelessly. Situation similar to Greece. How many rescue plans has Uchumi had? J. Ciano was specifically tapped to turn-around fortunes of the retailer for the better. It did not happen. As EWI asserts, the often kicked can may have run out of road. Apparently, National Bank is also in a similar dilemma once it releases the 1 Billion shillings Mumias bailout package. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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mnandii wrote:The other day I said Equity was making dangerous moves by announcing loans against shares. Today KCB makes its own mistake: Quote:Uchumi takes additional Sh500m debt from KCB
Retail chain Uchumi Supermarkets said on Tuesday day it had struck a Sh500 million loan deal with KCB as it awaits the outcome of a forensic audit that will determine the company’s future.
linkOnce a comapny is in its death bed (like Mumias and Kenya Airways), and especially in the NSE bear market we foresee via Elliott waves, any rescue plans involving money will suck in the rescuers. KCB may soon have to write off this 500 Million shilling life-line it is throwing carelessly. Situation similar to Greece. How many rescue plans has Uchumi had? J. Ciano was specifically tapped to turn-around fortunes of the retailer for the better. It did not happen. As EWI asserts, the often kicked can may have run out of road. Apparently, National Bank is also in a similar dilemma once it releases the 1 Billion shillings Mumias bailout package. 500M is small money can be recovered by selling off afew branches. I don't think things are that grave at Uchumi. I could be wrong. I await the forensic report "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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I heard on NTV yesterday that Uchumi's land in Kasarani is valued at 2.2 B . It is perhaps the one being sold to raise 2B which will only pay "part" of suppliers i.e. those with claims outstanding >90days. I see no point in doing business with Uchumi. It died long time ago. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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murchr wrote:mnandii wrote:The other day I said Equity was making dangerous moves by announcing loans against shares. Today KCB makes its own mistake: Quote:Uchumi takes additional Sh500m debt from KCB
Retail chain Uchumi Supermarkets said on Tuesday day it had struck a Sh500 million loan deal with KCB as it awaits the outcome of a forensic audit that will determine the company’s future.
linkOnce a comapny is in its death bed (like Mumias and Kenya Airways), and especially in the NSE bear market we foresee via Elliott waves, any rescue plans involving money will suck in the rescuers. KCB may soon have to write off this 500 Million shilling life-line it is throwing carelessly. Situation similar to Greece. How many rescue plans has Uchumi had? J. Ciano was specifically tapped to turn-around fortunes of the retailer for the better. It did not happen. As EWI asserts, the often kicked can may have run out of road. Apparently, National Bank is also in a similar dilemma once it releases the 1 Billion shillings Mumias bailout package. 500M is small money can be recovered by selling off afew branches. I don't think things are that grave at Uchumi. I could be wrong. I await the forensic report @ Murchr. I am concerned. For how long has Uchumi been in problems? Surely if it could be revived to sound financial health, it could have happened by now. Also, the 500M may seem small but it at least shows that the decision makers at KCB are not doing the right thing. Which, taken another level, may mean even far worse decsions involving far bigger sums are being taken at the bank. Now, that information may not yet be in the public domain. It is a 'may be', but it's worth considering. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Gatheuzi wrote:I heard on NTV yesterday that Uchumi's land in Kasarani is valued at 2.2 B . It is perhaps the one being sold to raise 2B which will only pay "part" of suppliers i.e. those with claims outstanding >90days. I see no point in doing business with Uchumi. It died long time ago. Let weak companies die. It is the only way for some important lesions to be learnt. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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@mnandii The amount of money KCB has given Uchumi will be repaid;no chance of defaultment. Uchumi is not in a worse state like KQ and Mumias.The issue is being blown out of proportion. In one year from now Uchumi will be back to its feet.The freeze on expansion is likely to generate the necessary cash flow needed to stabilize the company. What saved Uchumi is the largest shareholder i.e Jamii bora stepped in to protect their investments. In Mumias and KQ who stepped in;twas already too late Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
#keenlyfollowing In China, panic central is real. Today the markets there opened at -8%  and with half of their companies(around 1,400) halting trading of their stocks, in a market where retail traders account for 90% of trading and with most of them on margin trading, it's going to get nasty. Govt already a buyer but even this isn't stopping the slide  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,060 Location: Nairobi
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KCB has probably secured itself with a charge over assets or cashflow or a guarantee. Uchumi needs a massive makeover and the current shareholders better get ready for a Rights Issue. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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@VituVingiSana; There will be no rights issue for the case of Uchumi. So long as their is goodwill from customers revival without rights issue is possible. Bear in mind now that there is a freeze in expansion;maximise on the current branches. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Ericsson wrote:@mnandii
The amount of money KCB has given Uchumi will be repaid;no chance of defaultment.
Uchumi is not in a worse state like KQ and Mumias.The issue is being blown out of proportion.
In one year from now Uchumi will be back to its feet.The freeze on expansion is likely to generate the necessary cash flow needed to stabilize the company.
What saved Uchumi is the largest shareholder i.e Jamii bora stepped in to protect their investments.
In Mumias and KQ who stepped in;twas already too late I thank God that signs of a seriousness of management are easy to spot. There's hope for Uchumi now. The aggressive cost cutting and restructuring actions remind me of kk. The old Uchumi wouldn't have done this. How much is gava shareholding now? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@SPT china stocks skidding, NYSE shuts due to 'tech glitches', BRICs bank launched... Coincidence? Watch oil... This time the fight is super ugly! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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[Article] What Socionomics Says about the Timing of the Next World War Quote:Why Big Initial Declines Tend NOT to Produce Major Wars
As you can see from Figure 1, none of these first waves produced major wars. In Chapter 16 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999), Robert Prechter hypothesized why this is the case:
....Apparently society handles the first retrenchment in social mood, no matter how severe. “A” waves surprise optimistic people, who are unprepared and unwilling to wage war. It is the second drop that makes a sufficient number of increasingly stressed people angry enough to attack others militarily.1....
We hypothesize that during the first downtrend people are too busy adapting to the stunning financial setbacks to organize all-out war.
As concern for matters at home begins to dominate, people care less for expensive military excursions overseas. The U.S. and the U.K. have the world’s largest and third-largest defense industries, and both say they plan to cut military spending in coming years….
… The Risks We Face in Wave (a)
As animosity rises and military budgets fall, expect even more belligerence-on-the-cheap. Verbal threats, espionage, trade wars, financial conflicts, internal terrorism, cyber attacks, authoritarian clashes, border conflicts, drone attacks and anti-satellite attacks should all increase.
linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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hisah wrote:@SPT china stocks skidding, NYSE shuts due to 'tech glitches', BRICs bank launched... Coincidence? Watch oil... This time the fight is super ugly! NYSE shut down was very suspect, even the guy in charge couldn't explain anything in that press conf.
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