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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Companies which have been bailed out by the GoK before (Uchumi, Mumias, Kenya Airways) will find the going tough when the deflation catches on later this year to early 2016. Of course the GoK will try more bailouts but it will become increasingly difficult in an environment of declining tax revenue. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mnandii wrote:Companies which have been bailed out by the GoK before (Uchumi, Mumias, Kenya Airways) will find the going tough when the deflation catches on later this year to early 2016. Of course the GoK will try more bailouts but it will become increasingly difficult in an environment of declining tax revenue. Disinflation.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Allow me to state categorically that Equity is now emitting danger signals! Apart from the planned major growth out of Kenya and into Africa, various loan products without strong security, diversification, we now have this: Quote:Equity woos investors with instant payment for share sales
Equity Bank is set to introduce instant payment for share sales in an aggressive fight for a piece of the brokerage and custodial business.
The lender, through its subsidiary Equity Investment Bank, in the next few weeks plans to launch a service that will allow customers to be paid once a sale order goes through.
“You should be able to get your money on the same hour or day that you sell your shares,” said Equity Group Holdings chief executive James Mwangi in an interview.
Normally, customers are paid up to three days after the transaction although some stockbrokers are able to shorten this period for specific clients because at any given day they know how much working capital is available in their account.
Equity Investment Bank said it is introducing the service to add value for its customers.
The lender also hopes to use the securities as collateral for customers taking loans.
Mr Mwangi said the custodial business enables the bank to lend using stocks and bonds, which are more liquid than other forms of securities like land, as collateral. “This will enhance our ability to lend,” he said.
Biz daily Quite  in an environment where we expect share prices and bonds to fall substantially. 2015 will be interesting! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:Allow me to state categorically that Equity is now emitting danger signals! Apart from the planned major growth out of Kenya and into Africa, various loan products without strong security, diversification, we now have this: Quote:Equity woos investors with instant payment for share sales
Equity Bank is set to introduce instant payment for share sales in an aggressive fight for a piece of the brokerage and custodial business.
The lender, through its subsidiary Equity Investment Bank, in the next few weeks plans to launch a service that will allow customers to be paid once a sale order goes through.
“You should be able to get your money on the same hour or day that you sell your shares,” said Equity Group Holdings chief executive James Mwangi in an interview.
Normally, customers are paid up to three days after the transaction although some stockbrokers are able to shorten this period for specific clients because at any given day they know how much working capital is available in their account.
Equity Investment Bank said it is introducing the service to add value for its customers.
The lender also hopes to use the securities as collateral for customers taking loans.
Mr Mwangi said the custodial business enables the bank to lend using stocks and bonds, which are more liquid than other forms of securities like land, as collateral. “This will enhance our ability to lend,” he said.
Biz daily Quite in an environment where we expect share prices and bonds to fall substantially. 2015 will be interesting! Remind us again why a T+0 settlement is dangerous...if anything it is worth emulating by the other brokerage houses. With respect to equity's lending culture it is one of the most conservative even with real estate as the collateral.For example, you cannot get more than 52.5% of the worth of your real estate security unless you are one of the heavy hitters with massive bargaining power.Given that stocks are more volatile than real estate then they would be looking at a figure of 40% or less and that could also be pegged on the beta factor of the specific stock in question. The other issues on expansion are normal business risks that are undertaken from time to time where learning is on the job.As a shareholder I would be pretty pissed if Equity was not proactive with innovations,expansion and ring fencing of certain markets inter alia if possible.That said a price drop is always welcome. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The Fibonacci Sequence is the basis of the Wave Principle... Ralph Nelson Elliott. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Erh! Ahem!
I think this worry about USDKES exchange rate is misplaced. Me believes there is no way the previous high of 108 Kes to USD will be breached. Kes will rise strongly against the USD soon!
I had posted this chart of the Exchange rate earlier this year. By then I was looking for the Kes to weaken.  The weakness should complete soon. Then we go below 70 Kes to 1 Dollar.  Actually, the reason I say 108 level shld not be broken is the wave 1 in the chart (which I label as impulse). The fall from the all-time high of 108 to about 82 is clearly an impulse wave. The weakness in the Kes we are experiencing now is a wave 2, a counter-trend rally. Second waves can never retrace more than 100% of first waves! So, expect Kes to strengthen against the Dollar in the coming months. NB: Another good reason why I don't expect 108 to be breached is the mood surrounding the weakening shilling. Everybody is crying and lamenting how the future for the Kes is bleak. This is pre-requisite for a turn!  In focus. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds? It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Wait.. Hon Emilio almost broke 60 on KES-USD.. That was quite a feat
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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obiero wrote:Wait.. Hon Emilio almost broke 60 on KES-USD.. That was quite a feat @obiero, mos mos jatelo! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Watch out for Mpesa bank. This thing will starting throwing spanners in the works soon! The 3yr chart is showing distribution signs. Downside target around 13.50 - 14 before heading lower. As for financials H1 results are around the corner. NPLs in focus. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Watch out for Mpesa bank. This thing will starting throwing spanners in the works soon! The 3yr chart is showing distribution signs. Downside target around 13.50 - 14 before heading lower.
As for financials H1 results are around the corner. NPLs in focus. If the tightening continues, then this will be a reality. #LongTimeComing @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for Mpesa bank. This thing will starting throwing spanners in the works soon! The 3yr chart is showing distribution signs. Downside target around 13.50 - 14 before heading lower.
As for financials H1 results are around the corner. NPLs in focus. If the tightening continues, then this will be a reality. #LongTimeComing More liquidity squeeze will ensure that NSE20 heads below 4000 level. I have no idea what treasury is up to with KE econ on the ropes. Something doesn't add up with this budget, but I can't place a finger on what it is for now.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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So the Greeks have voted in an exact Fibonacci Proportion (the Golden Ratio)? 61.3% VS 38.7% Quote:Greek voters have decisively rejected the terms of an international bailout. he final result in the referendum, published by the interior ministry, was 61.3% "No", against 38.7% who voted "Yes".
Greece's governing Syriza party had campaigned for a "No", saying the bailout terms were humiliating. BBC linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451. There is an alternate count calling for a move below $150. So we watch out. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451. There is an alternate count calling for a move below $150. So we watch out. To see the image better, right click on it > open image in a new tab. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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