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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
wukan
#3681 Posted : Thursday, January 14, 2021 5:59:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,511
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index. My preferred Elliott count as indicated here implies an ending diagonal with waves 123 complete. I was calling for the index to rise slightly above 2387.82 to complete wave 4 then fall to below 1730 in wave 5. But an alternative count which is even more bullish has come to light.

By this alternate count, the NSE 20 Share Index has actually bottomed in a major way (ie a bottom that can last more than a decade). It suggests that the point labelled 1 is wave W, the point labelled 2 is wave X and the bottom point labelled 3 is wave Y. This count is enticing for the very reason that wave Y is equal in length (Fibonacci 100%) to wave W as expected by the Elliott Wave guideline of wave extensions (Fibonacci extension).

If this alternate count is actually the case then expect the NSE 20 share Index to rise to levels beyond the previous all-time highs (6110s) in the coming years.
An Impulsive move to levels above 2700 will be key to the alternate count.

All in all, our preferred count and alternate counts both point to the same direction for the NSE 20 Share index (UPWARDS). Of course a significant move below our current low point of 1730 will require a re-assessment of wave counts.


The upward push has been good so far. NSE 20 closed at 1921.06. The bull will take those standing by the sidelines by surprise.
mlennyma
#3682 Posted : Friday, January 15, 2021 9:50:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,082
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index. My preferred Elliott count as indicated here implies an ending diagonal with waves 123 complete. I was calling for the index to rise slightly above 2387.82 to complete wave 4 then fall to below 1730 in wave 5. But an alternative count which is even more bullish has come to light.


By this alternate count, the NSE 20 Share Index has actually bottomed in a major way (ie a bottom that can last more than a decade). It suggests that the point labelled 1 is wave W, the point labelled 2 is wave X and the bottom point labelled 3 is wave Y. This count is enticing for the very reason that wave Y is equal in length (Fibonacci 100%) to wave W as expected by the Elliott Wave guideline of wave extensions (Fibonacci extension).

If this alternate count is actually the case then expect the NSE 20 share Index to rise to levels beyond the previous all-time highs (6110s) in the coming years.
An Impulsive move to levels above 2700 will be key to the alternate count.

All in all, our preferred count and alternate counts both point to the same direction for the NSE 20 Share index (UPWARDS). Of course a significant move below our current low point of 1730 will require a re-assessment of wave counts.


The upward push has been good so far. NSE 20 closed at 1921.06. The bull will take those standing by the sidelines by surprise.


I actually lost hope of any nse bull, only Safaricom knows how a bull looks like
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Angelica _ann
#3683 Posted : Friday, January 15, 2021 10:30:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,837
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Laughing out loudly


37 sighted


Remember max is 40. Then....
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Ericsson
#3684 Posted : Saturday, January 16, 2021 8:11:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,527
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Laughing out loudly


37 sighted


Remember max is 40. Then....

Yes I can see from the graph.
Then the graph will have to be redrawn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
rwitre
#3685 Posted : Saturday, January 16, 2021 1:29:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 494
Location: Nairobi
Hii mwaka hakuna top stock picks for 2021? Laughing out loudly

Or we just go into SCOM, KCB and Equity and forget the year?
winmak
#3686 Posted : Saturday, January 16, 2021 6:38:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 532
Location: Nakuru
rwitre wrote:
Hii mwaka hakuna top stock picks for 2021? Laughing out loudly

Or we just go into SCOM, KCB and Equity and forget the year?


SCOM is not buyable at the moment
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
Angelica _ann
#3687 Posted : Saturday, January 16, 2021 7:55:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,837
winmak wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Hii mwaka hakuna top stock picks for 2021? Laughing out loudly

Or we just go into SCOM, KCB and Equity and forget the year?


SCOM is not buyable at the moment



OK, let us compare notes in 2023!!! Bookmark please.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Ericsson
#3688 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2021 8:39:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,527
Location: NAIROBI
winmak wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Hii mwaka hakuna top stock picks for 2021? Laughing out loudly

Or we just go into SCOM, KCB and Equity and forget the year?


SCOM is not buyable at the moment


It is sellable
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
rwitre
#3689 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2021 4:14:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 494
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
winmak wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Hii mwaka hakuna top stock picks for 2021? Laughing out loudly

Or we just go into SCOM, KCB and Equity and forget the year?


SCOM is not buyable at the moment


It is sellable


Sell and buy what instead?
Keep the cash and wait? We're already flirting with currency devaluation.

Safaricom has the advantage of being one stock you can buy and sleep peacefully all through to after 2022. Very few choices on NSE - which is just sad.

- Weakening shilling.
- Broke government.
- Political atmosphere heating up.
- Debt default on the horizon.

Good luck holding onto cash.

So for most of the risk-averse buyers showing up in the NSE, they will buy into SCOM first before looking at alternatives.

"But it is overvalued"

If there is one lesson to learn from 2020, is that stocks can trade at +100X their value and the herd will keep buying.

Sentiment > Charts > Book value
Ericsson
#3690 Posted : Thursday, January 28, 2021 12:00:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,527
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Laughing out loudly


37 sighted


Your prediction of 36.49 seems to be working
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#3691 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2021 11:40:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,527
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Laughing out loudly


37 sighted


Your prediction of 36.49 seems to be working


The barrier of 36.50 broken
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mnandii
#3692 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 10:19:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Laughing out loudly


37 sighted


Your prediction of 36.49 seems to be working


The barrier of 36.50 broken

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3693 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 10:21:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


DTB
One more move above 89.00 then a correction above 58.36 in a wave two.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3694 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 10:33:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


Safaricom.
Upper channel has been pierced in a 'throw - over'. Notice the upper wick of the last bullish candle and the fact the Safaricom did not close above the upper channel line. Circle wave y is also Fibonacci 100% equal to wave w. Gentlemen and ladies I expect Safaricom to now turn aggressively downward. A move to below 30.00 in the coming days will be confirmation that the reversal is at hand.

Targets for wave C of (2) are 16.50, 12.00 and 4.40.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3695 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 10:43:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


BAMBURI CEMENT.
Wow! Just wow!
We have been expecting Bamburi to turn Up from the lows around 28.00. It did turn up and now hit above 41.00. Though another slight drop below 20.00 cannot be ruled out, I now expect Bamburi to dip slightly (but maintain above 20.00 ) then continue strongly upwards.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3696 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 10:50:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


KENYA POWER
Still scraping a bottom. A move Up in the coming months to above 35.00 expected. A preliminary move above 5.57 then 12.50 will be confirmation of this long term forecast.
ACCUMULATE.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3697 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 11:01:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


NATION MEDIA GROUP
A long term bottom appears to have been set at 8.50s. I expect NMG to move above 125.00 in the coming months. A preliminary move above 43.86 in the coming days should be confirmation that this forecast will turn out right.

ACCUMULATE.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3698 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 11:26:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


EABL
Should fall further. especially if it does not rise above 184.00.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3699 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 11:53:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO.
Rising in a wave 4 of an impulsive decline. Will most likely hit 534.70 then turn down to below 312.00 in final wave 5.

Note that Fibonacci relationship (Golden ratio viz where wave 3 is exactly 1.618 multiple of wave 1.
See below:



Size of wave 1 = (1040.89 - 664.72) = 376.17

Size of wave 3 = (920.12 - 302.40) = 617.72

wave 3 divided by wave 1 = 617.72 / 376.17 = 1.642 (within fraction % of 1.618, the Golden ratio!!)

The Fibonacci sequence is the basis of the Elliott Waves, the method I use in making market forecasts.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3700 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 12:37:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,303


USDKES

Should weaken further to about 132.80 where wave C will be Fibonacci 1.618 times wave A.
Wave [ .iv ] at about 100.00 is support (we don't expect the pair to fall (KES strength) below 100.00 in the near term).

If we are right that the pair is falling (KES weakening and USD strengthening) in an Elliott Wave zigzag pattern (5 -3 - 5) then once wave C completes at about 132.80s we will expect a reversal to 30 (Yes, I said it!) in about 30 years time.

But also note the alternate scenario where the pair could be rising (KES weakening, USD strengthening) in an impulsive Elliott pattern. In that case A would be wave 1, B would be wave 2 and the target C would be wave 3. Then a correction (a three wave move) in wave 4 before a final rise above 132.00s in wave 5.

In the preferred Elliott count and the alternate the short term forecast is the same. We expect KES to weaken further to about 132.00s

Enjoy your coffee!

NB:


The impulsive Wave C channel shown here should be respected.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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