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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)  From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.  You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:CAR AND GENERAL  The data we have of Car and General is from March 2013 from when the share rose from a low of 17.50 to top at 61.91 in three waves here labelled as blue waves ABC. From the high of 61.91, C & G then fell in five waves labelled here as blue waves 12345. I believe C & G completed a larger Elliott Wave Flat which has now bottomed at 16.49, the wave 5 low. Accordingly I am now bullish C & G with a Stop Loss at 16.49 and targeting a move to above 61.91. A move to above 29.22 in the coming days will be good indication that this bullish scenario will play out as depicted. The structure of the developing pattern from the low of 16.49 will be key [ideally we want to have five wave impulse move which will indicate the potential for C & G to move higher UP] We'll keep an eye out and do real time analysis as the pieces of the jigsaw fall in place. These shares hardly trade. According to myStocks only 218,600 shares traded in 2019 which is 0.54% of the issued shares. At 25/- per share = KES 5.5mn which is far less than what C&G paid in dividends in 2019! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:WILLIAMSON TEA  Williamson Tea Kenya fell from a high of 434.39 to 122.00 in five waves here labelled as blue waves 12345. Having completed the five down move I am now bullish on this share. A move to above 166.12 will be good indication that a bull market in Williamson has started. This rally should take Williamson to above 434.39, the previous all time high, in several months to come. This bullish stance will be rendered null if instead Williamson Tea drops significantly below our Support level of 122.00 in the coming days. Does the 434/- account for the bonus/split in 2016? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:CAR AND GENERAL The data we have of Car and General is from March 2013 from when the share rose from a low of 17.50 to top at 61.91 in three waves here labelled as blue waves ABC. From the high of 61.91, C & G then fell in five waves labelled here as blue waves 12345. I believe C & G completed a larger Elliott Wave Flat which has now bottomed at 16.49, the wave 5 low. Accordingly I am now bullish C & G with a Stop Loss at 16.49 and targeting a move to above 61.91. A move to above 29.22 in the coming days will be good indication that this bullish scenario will play out as depicted. The structure of the developing pattern from the low of 16.49 will be key [ideally we want to have five wave impulse move which will indicate the potential for C & G to move higher UP] We'll keep an eye out and do real time analysis as the pieces of the jigsaw fall in place. These shares hardly trade. According to myStocks only 218,600 shares traded in 2019 which is 0.54% of the issued shares. At 25/- per share = KES 5.5mn which is far less than what C&G paid in dividends in 2019! That's deep analysis Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:WILLIAMSON TEA Williamson Tea Kenya fell from a high of 434.39 to 122.00 in five waves here labelled as blue waves 12345. Having completed the five down move I am now bullish on this share. A move to above 166.12 will be good indication that a bull market in Williamson has started. This rally should take Williamson to above 434.39, the previous all time high, in several months to come. This bullish stance will be rendered null if instead Williamson Tea drops significantly below our Support level of 122.00 in the coming days. Does the 434/- account for the bonus/split in 2016? Asking the same question. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:@mnandii please do EABL; BAT; NMG and Kengen. BAT iko - post #3237, can't miss that one  Seen it Been expecting it to go below 450 but sellers are stubborn. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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'Professional investors' herd the same way individual investors do. Trying to put your money in a pot for some professionals to manage for you is still a risky bet. Quote:The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has ordered money market funds to disclose in detail where they have invested clients’ cash as well as the terms of those deals following revelations of investment gambles that have lost investors billions of shillings.
CMA acting CEO Wycliffe Shamiah said the regulator plans to audit the committees that make investment decisions after they realised some of the funds were being controlled by lone rangers.
“We have issued circulars clarifying when they do their quarterly fillings to disclose which investments as in classes, for example you do not just make a return saying; Cash, Sh1 billion, we want you to be very specific, what is in deposits, what is in cash. As we review we also ask you to explain more on the terms of those assets as you disclose them,” he said. LinkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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sparkly wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:@mnandii please do EABL; BAT; NMG and Kengen. BAT iko - post #3237, can't miss that one Seen it Been expecting it to go below 450 but sellers are stubborn. OK. Will do Kengen. I can't get an NMG chart. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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EQUITY HOLDING GROUP  Equity appears to be on the verge of a collapse to below 33.00. On the far right we have what appears to be a completed blue wave 1. I expect a small rally to complete wave 2 then a continuation down. The red line at 55.56 is, as always with Elliott Waves, a key resistance which should not be penetrated to the UP side. NB: There is some price point (not shown) which suggest that Equity traded at around 400. I unfortunately could not manage to plot all that data since the program was not responsive. However the data we have above is still sufficient to make an Elliott Wave forecast which I have endeavored to do above. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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NATION MEDIA GROUP (NMG)On the verge of sustained bull market From a high of 372.47, NMG has been falling in a three wave zigzag structure here labelled as A B C. Wave C may require one small move down to complete its fifth wave. I am bullish NMG. I expect price to rise to 70.28 in the coming days to confirm a bottom in place. if this bullish scenario plays out as I expect then NMG should go higher past its previous all-time high of 372.47. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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BAMBURI CEMENT  Bamburi Cement should fall a little further and find a bottom at 55.81, having fallen from a high of 250.00 in three waves. Once the bottom is established expect a bull run to test the all-time high Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 On the extreme right, purple wave [c] of black wave C is Fibonacci 0.618 (Golden ratio) of purple wave [a]. This is therefore a zigzag that is complete at 2426. The only direction that NSE 20 Share index can go now is UP. I expect this level to hold in the coming decade. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES (EABL)  EABL has bottomed at 159.82. Wave [ i .] is complete. There may be a short term move to 185 or even 174.30 but this is not necessary because wave [ii] can easily be complete at 190.20. A move above 225 in the coming days will confirm this. If the bullish scenario plays out as I expect then EABL will likely go past 425, its all-time high. Of course if EABL ignores us and drops below 159.82 then it will be time to re-assess our wave count. For now we are bullish. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2019 Posts: 119
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Hi @Mnandii. Is it possible to post Kenya Power cartoon ama it is not a wazua favorite?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mnandii wrote:EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES (EABL) EABL has bottomed at 159.82. Wave [ i .] is complete. There may be a short term move to 185 or even 174.30 but this is not necessary because wave [ii] can easily be complete at 190.20. A move above 225 in the coming days will confirm this. If the bullish scenario plays out as I expect then EABL will likely go past 425, its all-time high. Of course if EABL ignores us and drops below 159.82 then it will be time to re-assess our wave count. For now we are bullish. Well noted. It looks bullish. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:NATION MEDIA GROUP (NMG)On the verge of sustained bull marketFrom a high of 372.47, NMG has been falling in a three wave zigzag structure here labelled as A B C. Wave C may require one small move down to complete its fifth wave. I am bullish NMG. I expect price to rise to 70.28 in the coming days to confirm a bottom in place. if this bullish scenario plays out as I expect then NMG should go higher past its previous all-time high of 372.47. 327 for NMG? Let's look at this in 1 year's time. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:EQUITY HOLDING GROUP Equity appears to be on the verge of a collapse to below 33.00. On the far right we have what appears to be a completed blue wave 1. I expect a small rally to complete wave 2 then a continuation down. The red line at 55.56 is, as always with Elliott Waves, a key resistance which should not be penetrated to the UP side. NB: There is some price point (not shown) which suggest that Equity traded at around 400. I unfortunately could not manage to plot all that data since the program was not responsive. However the data we have above is still sufficient to make an Elliott Wave forecast which I have endeavored to do above. Thanks. My target on this one is around 28 thereabouts then I will review it for a long play. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE. Similar sentiments expressed here https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress
Quote:Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.
Quote:Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy?
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