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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3181 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2019 6:59:06 PM
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She is rising ladies and gentlemen.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3182 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2019 7:27:33 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
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NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Wave [ c ] in blue appears complete or may go slightly below 2450. This will likely necessitate a re-assessment of my Elliott Wave counts as if it is the case that wave [ c ] has bottomed then that will imply that the NSE 20 Share index should experience another bull market rise to levels beyond 4040.

See the arrow:

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mufasa
#3183 Posted : Saturday, November 02, 2019 1:21:59 AM
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Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 190
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Wave [ c ] in blue appears complete or may go slightly below 2450. This will likely necessitate a re-assessment of my Elliott Wave counts as if it is the case that wave [ c ] has bottomed then that will imply that the NSE 20 Share index should experience another bull market rise to levels beyond 4040.

See the arrow:



Some sectors like insurance seems not to have gotten the Memo.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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mnandii
#3184 Posted : Sunday, November 03, 2019 6:38:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3185 Posted : Sunday, November 03, 2019 6:43:03 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Since the NSE 20 Share Index should rise in a bear-market rally, I do not expect ALL stocks to rise in tandem. You will have a difficult time choosing an individual counter that will turn out profitable. I however expect Safaricom to rally to about 36/- as analysed in my earlier post.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3186 Posted : Sunday, November 03, 2019 7:04:43 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
NAIROBI ALL SHARE INDEX (NASI)

You can see a completed impulsive Elliott Wave represented by numbers 12345 to complete a larger degree wave (A) or (1). The completion of this impulse implies that the largest correction since the start of the impulse wave is at hand. In fact the correction has started (where we have wave A at about 139. Wave B is developing (as indicated by the UP ARROW) whose targets (ending) are the green lines/levels). Once wave B completes i will expect the NASI to drop to targets indicated by the blue lines and most especially the 122.07 or 105.60 being 50% and 61.8% retracement of the impulse.



The structure of an ideal impulse wave is shown below:



Post 3175 of 23rd August
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3187 Posted : Sunday, November 03, 2019 7:09:29 PM
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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xtina
#3188 Posted : Sunday, November 03, 2019 8:50:50 PM
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Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 384
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.



The charts are very much appreciated. When do you reckon this why/may occur?
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xtina
#3189 Posted : Sunday, November 03, 2019 8:53:02 PM
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Joined: 6/26/2008
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mnandii wrote:
Since the NSE 20 Share Index should rise in a bear-market rally, I do not expect ALL stocks to rise in tandem. You will have a difficult time choosing an individual counter that will turn out profitable. I however expect Safaricom to rally to about 36/- as analysed in my earlier post.



Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause
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mlennyma
#3190 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2019 10:21:32 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
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xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Since the NSE 20 Share Index should rise in a bear-market rally, I do not expect ALL stocks to rise in tandem. You will have a difficult time choosing an individual counter that will turn out profitable. I however expect Safaricom to rally to about 36/- as analysed in my earlier post.



Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause

The red colour we are used to is back
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Extraterrestrial
#3191 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2019 12:38:31 PM
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Joined: 11/17/2018
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mlennyma wrote:
xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Since the NSE 20 Share Index should rise in a bear-market rally, I do not expect ALL stocks to rise in tandem. You will have a difficult time choosing an individual counter that will turn out profitable. I however expect Safaricom to rally to about 36/- as analysed in my earlier post.



Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause

The red colour we are used to is back


Party is over, folks. Go home. However, you can keep your car parked and take an Uber to avoid crashing after drinking and driving. You can come back in the morning to pick your car as it will be safe here.
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mufasa
#3192 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2019 4:32:44 PM
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Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 190
Extraterrestrial wrote:


Party is over, folks. Go home. However, you can keep your car parked and take an Uber to avoid crashing after drinking and driving. You can come back in the morning to pick your car as it will be safe here.


Haiya, what do you mean party is over! Ndio nimemaliza kujitayarisha kuenda kupanda basi.

Kweli, this is a buyers market, until the political order changes or the Turkana pipeline starts churning out daily barrel sales
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Extraterrestrial
#3193 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2019 5:10:20 PM
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Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 173
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mufasa wrote:
Extraterrestrial wrote:


Party is over, folks. Go home. However, you can keep your car parked and take an Uber to avoid crashing after drinking and driving. You can come back in the morning to pick your car as it will be safe here.


Haiya, what do you mean party is over! Ndio nimemaliza kujitayarisha kuenda kupanda basi.

Kweli, this is a buyers market, until the political order changes or the Turkana pipeline starts churning out daily barrel sales


All those words and you only read the first sentence. 🙄
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mnandii
#3194 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 7:28:55 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.



The charts are very much appreciated. When do you reckon this why/may occur?


Thanks. In case the index falls below 2420s (very unlikely now) then I will have to consider an alternative Elliott Wave pattern since Elliott has rules and guidelines to be followed for proper analysis.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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maka
#3195 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 10:46:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
xtina wrote:
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.



The charts are very much appreciated. When do you reckon this why/may occur?


Thanks. In case the index falls below 2420s (very unlikely now) then I will have to consider an alternative Elliott Wave pattern since Elliott has rules and guidelines to be followed for proper analysis.



Very unlikely? Debt default coming up.... Then all hell will break lose.
possunt quia posse videntur
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lochaz-index
#3196 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 11:41:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.

Intriguing perspective. Interesting to note that the market will still be in a secular bear even if the index rises above 5000 but below 5500...12 years later since that 6161 high in 2007. I think this is a suckers rally and will die off in and around the 3000 mark which will set it up nicely to challenge the 2420 low next year.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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cyruskulei
#3197 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 11:53:55 AM
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Joined: 3/9/2010
Posts: 320
Location: kenya
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.

Intriguing perspective. Interesting to note that the market will still be in a secular bear even if the index rises above 5000 but below 5500...12 years later since that 6161 high in 2007. I think this is a suckers rally and will die off in and around the 3000 mark which will set it up nicely to challenge the 2420 low next year.


Interest Rate Cap debate: MPS to vote on President Uhuru’s proposal today. Round 2 rally on the tracks
Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.
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mlennyma
#3198 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 11:58:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
cyruskulei wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.

Intriguing perspective. Interesting to note that the market will still be in a secular bear even if the index rises above 5000 but below 5500...12 years later since that 6161 high in 2007. I think this is a suckers rally and will die off in and around the 3000 mark which will set it up nicely to challenge the 2420 low next year.


Interest Rate Cap debate: MPS to vote on President Uhuru’s proposal today. Round 2 rally on the tracks

they won't raise the quorum,and if they do it will be historical
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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wukan
#3199 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 12:20:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.

Intriguing perspective. Interesting to note that the market will still be in a secular bear even if the index rises above 5000 but below 5500...12 years later since that 6161 high in 2007. I think this is a suckers rally and will die off in and around the 3000 mark which will set it up nicely to challenge the 2420 low next year.


From the top of my head I see more of bat pattern therefore a retrace of 328 will give more or less around 3000 or a 618 retrace around 3700. 3000 is the more likely scenario. @mnandii is seeing a full 86% retrace which I find intriguing as well.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3200 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2019 1:33:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mnandii wrote:


People!

We are in a bear-market rally. That blue wave [c] of C is definitely complete. My preferred Elliott Wave count suggests an Elliott Wave triangle where waves A B and C (in black) are complete.

I now expect the NSE 20 share index to rally to about 4282s or even towards 5000s but should not surpass 5482 (the wave B high). The completion of this rally will mark the end of wave D.

I will abandon the above scenario if the index falls below 2420s the wave C low.

The problems the gpvernment has been facing of low revenues, difficulties with debt repayment and citizens loss of employment should be slightly alleviated as wave D rallies.


The bears are not relenting any time soon!
@SufficientlyP
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