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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#2941 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2018 9:50:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


The NSE 20 Share Index is falling in wave [c] of Y. Targets for the current bear market are between 1700 - 1370. The 1700 target should also coincide with a touch of the parallel trend channel.

I will give a breakdown of wave [c] later.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#2942 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2018 10:26:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index is falling in wave [c] of Y. Targets for the current bear market are between 1700 - 1370. The 1700 target should also coincide with a touch of the parallel trend channel.

I will give a breakdown of wave [c] later.

Now we are on the same page. Sub 2000 but above the 2002 bottom of 1000 points.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
wukan
#2943 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2018 10:45:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,569
Let's hope things will unravel quite rapidly a slow bear will skin wazuans alive. Below 2K is regime change scenarios
lochaz-index
#2944 Posted : Friday, September 14, 2018 3:03:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
Let's hope things will unravel quite rapidly a slow bear will skin wazuans alive. Below 2K is regime change scenarios

As much as I would fancy a fast and furious kinda of bear run I highly doubt it will be the scenario this time round. Unless at the very least one of US, Europe or China (with Europe and China being more likely) hits an economic iceberg - next year at the very earliest - this will be a slow and steady decline. Perhaps a small bounce/pause around 2500 then its back to death by a thousand cuts.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#2945 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2018 4:35:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index is falling in wave [c] of Y. Targets for the current bear market are between 1700 - 1370. The 1700 target should also coincide with a touch of the parallel trend channel.

I will give a breakdown of wave [c] later.


Today 20th September the NSE 20 Share Index is at 2858.46
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2946 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2018 4:40:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The 3275 level is holding. Expect upward reversal to above 4110. Once the index exceeds 3400 I'll give targets.

Market broke below the your stated support level. Is this analysis still valid?

Would also like to get your take on KE's social fabric particularly on citizens vs the govt.


I would also want to hear his take. Told him there was no liquidity for 4000 level.

Sorry for late reply. I updated the wave labelling once the 3275s support level didn't hold.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2947 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2018 4:47:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:


I expect Safcom to continue dropping in circle wave ((iv)) and find support at about 25.00. Thereafter it should rise in wave circled wave ((v)) to above 33.00.


25.00 level reached today 20th September. I expect a bounce to above 33.00 level to complete circled wave ((v)). If the drop continues any further down below 25.00 then it should not touch 21.70 (being the circled wave (((i))) high). NB: Elliott's rule states that a fourth wave should not overlap the wave one.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2948 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2018 4:52:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Updated Safcom chart. I'll give targets for circled wave ((v)) once the market turns bullish and reaches above 30.00.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#2949 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2018 8:21:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index is falling in wave [c] of Y. Targets for the current bear market are between 1700 - 1370. The 1700 target should also coincide with a touch of the parallel trend channel.

I will give a breakdown of wave [c] later.


Today 20th September the NSE 20 Share Index is at 2858.46

A mere 69 points difference with the Feb 2017 low. It is worth noting that the EM/FM rout has paused a bit and it was never KE centric to begin with but rather just a contagion of the risk off environment developing. It is scary to think what would become of KE if investors actually turned their lasers to the mess being baked into the fundies and then came to the conclusion that KE assets aren't worth holding.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
VituVingiSana
#2950 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2018 10:37:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I expect Safcom to continue dropping in circle wave ((iv)) and find support at about 25.00. Thereafter it should rise in wave circled wave ((v)) to above 33.00.


25.00 level reached today 20th September. I expect a bounce to above 33.00 level to complete circled wave ((v)). If the drop continues any further down below 25.00 then it should not touch 21.70 (being the circled wave (((i))) high). NB: Elliott's rule states that a fourth wave should not overlap the wave one.
What if it does?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Superprime1
#2951 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 9:29:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2018
Posts: 267
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I expect Safcom to continue dropping in circle wave ((iv)) and find support at about 25.00. Thereafter it should rise in wave circled wave ((v)) to above 33.00.


25.00 level reached today 20th September. I expect a bounce to above 33.00 level to complete circled wave ((v)). If the drop continues any further down below 25.00 then it should not touch 21.70 (being the circled wave (((i))) high). NB: Elliott's rule states that a fourth wave should not overlap the wave one.
What if it does?

Good question @VVS! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
mnandii
#2952 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 9:34:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Superprime1 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I expect Safcom to continue dropping in circle wave ((iv)) and find support at about 25.00. Thereafter it should rise in wave circled wave ((v)) to above 33.00.


25.00 level reached today 20th September. I expect a bounce to above 33.00 level to complete circled wave ((v)). If the drop continues any further down below 25.00 then it should not touch 21.70 (being the circled wave (((i))) high). NB: Elliott's rule states that a fourth wave should not overlap the wave one.
What if it does?

Good question @VVS! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


If it does overlap then it means that my preferred wave labelling is in error and will require another look.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2953 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 9:36:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index is falling in wave [c] of Y. Targets for the current bear market are between 1700 - 1370. The 1700 target should also coincide with a touch of the parallel trend channel.

I will give a breakdown of wave [c] later.


Today 20th September the NSE 20 Share Index is at 2858.46

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2954 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 9:42:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Breakdown for wave [c] of Y.



Wave [c] started at the point labelled wave [.b.] (extreme right).So far we have green waves (i) and (ii) complete. Green wave (iii) is in progress and has a target of 2560s (being Fibonacci 2.618 X green wave (i)). Once the target is achieved then I expect the index to go sideways for some time before eventually continuing down.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2955 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 9:57:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Venezuela city turned to ghost town after massive migration

Quote:
CARACAS,

Three years ago, asphyxiated by Venezuela's economic meltdown, Francisco Rojas and his wife Elena packed up four suitcases with the barest of essentials and walked out of their Caracas apartment.

It has remained empty ever since.

DESERTED

Toothbrushes are still perched on the bathroom sink, the refrigerator runs with only ice and tomato sauce inside, and the bar is empty except for a lone bottle of rum.

Deserted homes, desolate apartment blocks and stagnant markets for both renters and buyers are yet another disheartening by product of the South American country's dire economic straits, which have prompted a mass exodus.


Quote:
When the couple left Venezuela, they simply locked the doors to the apartment rather than selling it, even though the money would have helped. Bought for $100,000 in 2014, their home had already lost half of its value.


Quote:
Roberto Orta, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Real Estate in Caracas, says properties have lost 70 to 80 percent of their value over the last five years.

"An apartment that cost $170,000 is worth no more than $70,000 today. Someone offers $50,000 and the owner prefers to leave it locked," real estate broker Carolina Quintero told AFP.


Article Link

Sad

Be careful as the NSE 20 Share Index goes sub 2000s. The Crises that will accompany that fall will be devastating.

As a start buy a Safe and keep your hard cash under the mattress. Avoid debt and divest from the NSE. Be safe.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2956 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 10:12:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
USDKES



I expect the pair to slide down with a target of 99.06 or 97.62s. Thereafter a weakening of the KES to levels above 106.00s . A move above 101.80s will be indication that the weakening of the KES is underway.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
wukan
#2957 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 10:54:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,569
bartum wrote:
wukan wrote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40


Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom

I pray day and night we get 2500


@mnandii, thanks for your analysis. I was more of the view of a double bottom at 2500 but it looks like that will be a temporary stop. Sub 2K will really be nasty especially for a generation that grew up in Kibaki boom years.

lochaz-index
#2958 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 11:18:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:

1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.

2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.

3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.

4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.

5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Liv
#2959 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 11:50:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
lochaz-index wrote:
Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:

1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.

2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.

3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.

4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.

5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.






I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.

A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?

B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?

C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.
lochaz-index
#2960 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2018 12:48:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Liv wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:

1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.

2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.

3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.

4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.

5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.






I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.

A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?

B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?

C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.

Note that the finance bill is only making a bad situation worse, it therefore must be viewed in context. As for your queries I will let reality do the talking...it is a hell of a lot more eloquent. That said, I've expressed my thinking in other threads and I will add that GoK may be forced to sell its stake in some assets (eg safcom) at throw away prices if push comes to shove.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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