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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse. I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing. This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit. Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers. Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take. The market is doing a long correction of the 2002-2007 bull. In TA terms a double zigzag(ending around 2500) or triple zigzag correction (ending around 1850). In double zigzag the retrace from 2700 level terminates at slightly below 4000(Wave B of the previous wave). Current impulse should therefore be on the last leg(iv-v). The elections will offer a shock and awe moment for the unprepared. The tightening of the opinion polls is yet to sink in. I'm getting rid of my longs and going short. I could be wrong though 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. I tried to caution my fellow investors in that other thread. Rallies based on feel good factor are normally knee jerk The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Waiting for NSE to halt trading
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Aguytrying wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. I tried to caution my fellow investors in that other thread. Rallies based on feel good factor are normally knee jerk When things are too good there is always a catch somewhere lurking...waiting to deliver a sucker punch but few listen. Apparently circuit breakers have kicked in as NSE halts trading... The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 465 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. I tried to caution my fellow investors in that other thread. Rallies based on feel good factor are normally knee jerk When things are too good there is always a catch somewhere lurking...waiting to deliver a sucker punch but few listen. Apparently circuit breakers have kicked in as NSE halts trading... Paper profits are just that. When everyone rushes for the one narrow exit people are bound to get crushed to death. Ni hayo tu...wait for the next boom and bust cycle, rinse and repeat until the final Armageddon
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. If it does turn out to be a bull trap aka bear rally trap this will wrong foot fresh bulls making the correction to be steep.
Above 4000 on NSE20 was already suggesting that bulls had gotten ahead of themselves.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. If it does turn out to be a bull trap aka bear rally trap this will wrong foot fresh bulls making the correction to be steep.
Above 4000 on NSE20 was already suggesting that bulls had gotten ahead of themselves. NSE20 3850. Most fundies in a funk, more politrics. ☺
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. If it does turn out to be a bull trap aka bear rally trap this will wrong foot fresh bulls making the correction to be steep.
Above 4000 on NSE20 was already suggesting that bulls had gotten ahead of themselves. NSE20 3850. Most fundies in a funk, more politrics. ☺ 52WK RANGE 2,789.64 - 4,114.01 1 YR RETURN 31.14% Find the bull/bear equilbrium. Charts perhaps? Scom and KCB going ex-div. Bad timing.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. If it does turn out to be a bull trap aka bear rally trap this will wrong foot fresh bulls making the correction to be steep.
Above 4000 on NSE20 was already suggesting that bulls had gotten ahead of themselves. NSE20 3850. Most fundies in a funk, more politrics. ☺ 52WK RANGE 2,789.64 - 4,114.01 1 YR RETURN 31.14% Find the bull/bear equilbrium. Charts perhaps? Scom and KCB going ex-div. Bad timing. The writing was on the wall.. Bank stocks will tank to the very bottom of the abyss
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Yep...2 months to cherry pick...
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/5/2008 Posts: 34 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick... Pondering whether to start hunting on Monday...too much blood on the streets! Eyeing the green monster but open to hunt KK and Kengen. What are you eyeing?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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shobiz wrote:the deal wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick... Pondering whether to start hunting on Monday...too much blood on the streets! Eyeing the green monster but open to hunt KK and Kengen. What are you eyeing? SCOM...KK is proving to be recession proof...Total as well...some insurance stocks with less exposure to the NSE...Banking stocks with high dividend yields...Monday is too early to start picking... I want to watch how deep this shake out will be...then BOOM!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:shobiz wrote:the deal wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick... Pondering whether to start hunting on Monday...too much blood on the streets! Eyeing the green monster but open to hunt KK and Kengen. What are you eyeing? SCOM...KK is proving to be recession proof...Total as well...some insurance stocks with less exposure to the NSE...Banking stocks with high dividend yields...Monday is too early to start picking... I want to watch how deep this shake out will be...then BOOM! kcb, kk,scom,cic at 3.50,
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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Yep...2 months to cherry pick...[/quote Foreigners are fleeing the market because of political uncertainty.Sasa wacha sisi locals tutawale kabisa. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:shobiz wrote:the deal wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick... Pondering whether to start hunting on Monday...too much blood on the streets! Eyeing the green monster but open to hunt KK and Kengen. What are you eyeing? SCOM...KK is proving to be recession proof...Total as well...some insurance stocks with less exposure to the NSE...Banking stocks with high dividend yields...Monday is too early to start picking... I want to watch how deep this shake out will be...then BOOM! Dear elder.. I would front that you wait upto November.. It's easy to loose cash right now
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:the deal wrote:shobiz wrote:the deal wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick... Pondering whether to start hunting on Monday...too much blood on the streets! Eyeing the green monster but open to hunt KK and Kengen. What are you eyeing? SCOM...KK is proving to be recession proof...Total as well...some insurance stocks with less exposure to the NSE...Banking stocks with high dividend yields...Monday is too early to start picking... I want to watch how deep this shake out will be...then BOOM! Dear elder.. I would front that you wait upto November.. It's easy to loose cash right now a stock market doesn't like an emotional approach. we are not at war .relax "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:shobiz wrote:the deal wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick... Pondering whether to start hunting on Monday...too much blood on the streets! Eyeing the green monster but open to hunt KK and Kengen. What are you eyeing? SCOM...KK is proving to be recession proof...Total as well...some insurance stocks with less exposure to the NSE...Banking stocks with high dividend yields...Monday is too early to start picking... I want to watch how deep this shake out will be...then BOOM! Dear elder.. I would front that you wait upto November.. It's easy to loose cash right now a stock market doesn't like an emotional approach. we are not at war .relax People are asking if to enter now when we have already eaten Kengen profits of over 70% ytd? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Ebenyo wrote:Yep...2 months to cherry pick...[/quote Foreigners are fleeing the market because of political uncertainty.Sasa wacha sisi locals tutawale kabisa. Political uncertainities and risk at times crystalise with devastation and total despair. For the sake of unbelieving Tomases lets say syria is burnt, Somalia was berbecued, rwanda was multilated, libya was imasculated...... The list is long and real. Pray, if u like facing mt kenya, do it verily. If u like facing the earth, its the high time u do so. Do something, dont just sit there do something for the sake of countrymen of kenya. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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