Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
|
lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closed the month @2994 after rallying 200 points (7.16%) from the open (February 1st) at 2794. The vicious fight between the bulls and bears will continue with focus being the 3000 handle which the market was not able to close above by end of February. FTSE NSE 15 index also bounced some just like NSE20, but it's bearish. Focus remains at 140 handle where the bounce triggered. If the month closes below 140 handle this will mean that lower lows are expected and bears are still in control.
The usual suspects mpesa bank, eabl, kcb, equity and BAT will be involved again this month. The last phase of the bear is tailor made for safcom with a little help from BAT. Safcom heavily participated in the bull phase 2012-2014 and it even went counter-trend during the last two years of the bear run. No one escapes the grizzly unpunished. BAT has shed some weight although it still lagging the overall market during the downslide, another shaving to take it back to 2014 levels may await. EABL has also pulled a similar defensive action to BAT, so I would expect another shaving here. For the banks, I don't think the bear is done with them yet but value is slowly becoming conspicuous. The Q1 we are waiting for banks is the final judgement "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
Pension schemes have grown their holdings of government securities by Sh151 billion in the past one year as they continue to migrate from the poorly-performing equities market. The latest data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that the funds today hold Sh532 billion of the securities compared to Sh381 billion a year ago, a 39 per cent increase. An industry survey conducted by Alexander Forbes financial services shows that the average scheme how holds 75 per cent of its assets in government securities, up from 70.5 per cent a year ago. The holdings in equities have dropped from 25.1 per cent to 19.6 per cent. http://www.businessdaily...833386-pak0hk/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
mlennyma wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closed the month @2994 after rallying 200 points (7.16%) from the open (February 1st) at 2794. The vicious fight between the bulls and bears will continue with focus being the 3000 handle which the market was not able to close above by end of February. FTSE NSE 15 index also bounced some just like NSE20, but it's bearish. Focus remains at 140 handle where the bounce triggered. If the month closes below 140 handle this will mean that lower lows are expected and bears are still in control.
The usual suspects mpesa bank, eabl, kcb, equity and BAT will be involved again this month. The last phase of the bear is tailor made for safcom with a little help from BAT. Safcom heavily participated in the bull phase 2012-2014 and it even went counter-trend during the last two years of the bear run. No one escapes the grizzly unpunished. BAT has shed some weight although it still lagging the overall market during the downslide, another shaving to take it back to 2014 levels may await. EABL has also pulled a similar defensive action to BAT, so I would expect another shaving here. For the banks, I don't think the bear is done with them yet but value is slowly becoming conspicuous. The Q1 we are waiting for banks is the final judgement BAT, Safcom, Jubilee , EABL have proved to be the bear resistant stocks this time round. honourable mentions standard chartered and bamburi cement. interestingly they are among the most generous dividend payers ( jubilee , EABL not as much) Would i be right to say these are the bluest of the blue chips NSE has to offer? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
kasibitta wrote:mnandii wrote:Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality. I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively. I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned. So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree. The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one. The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately. Do read: -THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER. -CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER. www.socionomics.net Thankyou.An interesting perspective to the current happenings.Always look forward to reading your posts.Keep them coming Trouble in paradise: Agony of parents whose sons went through hell
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Quote: Parents at one of the oldest citadel of education in the country, Alliance High School, were outraged yesterday as they returned their children to school in the wake of chilling bullying reports. There was tension at the institution, which has for decades symbolised discipline and academic excellence as the board of management met teachers in a closed-door meeting to unravel the bizarre reports of bullying attributed to some prefects, which was likened to torture. This was happening at a time Education CS Fred Matiang'i ordered a nationwide probe into bullying after the Alliance shocker. He warned principals that they will be held personally responsible for bullying cases in their schools. At Alliance, the board met the teaching staff and later held a joint session with students and teachers, just a day after a Ministry of Education report exposed harrowing tales of bullying. Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
mnandii wrote:kasibitta wrote:mnandii wrote:Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality. I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively. I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned. So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree. The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one. The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately. Do read: -THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER. -CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER. www.socionomics.net Thankyou.An interesting perspective to the current happenings.Always look forward to reading your posts.Keep them coming Trouble in paradise: Agony of parents whose sons went through hell
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Quote: Parents at one of the oldest citadel of education in the country, Alliance High School, were outraged yesterday as they returned their children to school in the wake of chilling bullying reports. There was tension at the institution, which has for decades symbolised discipline and academic excellence as the board of management met teachers in a closed-door meeting to unravel the bizarre reports of bullying attributed to some prefects, which was likened to torture. This was happening at a time Education CS Fred Matiang'i ordered a nationwide probe into bullying after the Alliance shocker. He warned principals that they will be held personally responsible for bullying cases in their schools. At Alliance, the board met the teaching staff and later held a joint session with students and teachers, just a day after a Ministry of Education report exposed harrowing tales of bullying. Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Alliance is the giant that never falls. 1926 to-date and going strong. Strong prefecture system supported school management while giants of the past like Mangu, Nairobi School, Lenana, Kagumo, Shimo la Tewa, fell. The education system is collapsed, very few public schools will buck the trend and Alliance is one of them. Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
|
sparkly wrote:mnandii wrote:kasibitta wrote:mnandii wrote:Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality. I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively. I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned. So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree. The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one. The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately. Do read: -THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER. -CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER. www.socionomics.net Thankyou.An interesting perspective to the current happenings.Always look forward to reading your posts.Keep them coming Trouble in paradise: Agony of parents whose sons went through hell
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Quote: Parents at one of the oldest citadel of education in the country, Alliance High School, were outraged yesterday as they returned their children to school in the wake of chilling bullying reports. There was tension at the institution, which has for decades symbolised discipline and academic excellence as the board of management met teachers in a closed-door meeting to unravel the bizarre reports of bullying attributed to some prefects, which was likened to torture. This was happening at a time Education CS Fred Matiang'i ordered a nationwide probe into bullying after the Alliance shocker. He warned principals that they will be held personally responsible for bullying cases in their schools. At Alliance, the board met the teaching staff and later held a joint session with students and teachers, just a day after a Ministry of Education report exposed harrowing tales of bullying. Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Alliance is the giant that never falls. 1926 to-date and going strong. Strong prefecture system supported school management while giants of the past like Mangu, Nairobi School, Lenana, Kagumo, Shimo la Tewa, fell. The education system is collapsed, very few public schools will buck the trend and Alliance is one of them. Alliance has begun succumbing to hooliganism that left a bunch of form one students terribly maimed. A stunning prefecture is a story of the past now the institution is run by crooks straight from senior teachers down to student leaders. Waiting for Matiang'i to restore sanity. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
mnandii wrote:kasibitta wrote:mnandii wrote:Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality. I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively. I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned. So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree. The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one. The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately. Do read: -THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER. -CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER. www.socionomics.net Thankyou.An interesting perspective to the current happenings.Always look forward to reading your posts.Keep them coming Trouble in paradise: Agony of parents whose sons went through hell
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Quote: Parents at one of the oldest citadel of education in the country, Alliance High School, were outraged yesterday as they returned their children to school in the wake of chilling bullying reports. There was tension at the institution, which has for decades symbolised discipline and academic excellence as the board of management met teachers in a closed-door meeting to unravel the bizarre reports of bullying attributed to some prefects, which was likened to torture. This was happening at a time Education CS Fred Matiang'i ordered a nationwide probe into bullying after the Alliance shocker. He warned principals that they will be held personally responsible for bullying cases in their schools. At Alliance, the board met the teaching staff and later held a joint session with students and teachers, just a day after a Ministry of Education report exposed harrowing tales of bullying. Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-sons-went-through-hell Shock as trainee teachers fail Knec examQuote:There is a crisis in teachers’ colleges across the country after nearly half of the trainees who sat Knec exams failed.
The revelation emerged during a graduation ceremony at Moi Teachers’ College in Baringo, where 130 trainee teachers out of 360 got referrals.
Senior principal Richard Nduati said teachers’ colleges in the country were shocked at the high numbers of referrals meted by the council in last year’s exams.
“We are lucky ours is 130 referrals out of 360, other colleges registered over half the number of candidates, which is something we have never seen before,” said Rev Nduati. linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
Socionomics The strong rebound in NSE 20 Share Index from below 2815 to slightly above 3000 (see arrow) has ensured that Doctors' strike is resolved, Lecturers pay talks succeeded and the President's party is gaining defectors. Once the bear resumes below 2800 you should expect worse outcomes. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:mnandii wrote:Expect the President's popularity to suffer with the declining Social Mood as measured by the NSE 20 Share Index (i.e. as the Index continues to fall, the President's popularity falls with it). Not in Kenya as long as tribal politics is alive  Do you know majority of Kenyans who vote know nothing about the nse and what happens there? They don't! But what they feel is known and is reflected in the stock market. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 190
|
mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
|
mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Mukiri wrote:mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB @mukiri, glad to hear from you. I was very worried the market swallowed you. How do you like the bear? I hope you have and continue to learn how to cope with the bear as well as become sharper on how to navigate the markets. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I expected the market to put up a strong fight at the 3000 handle since it was a multi year support level. But when it caved in without a fight, that analysis was trashed!
The final signal about the market going to some crazy levels as the bears continue with their damaging ways is mpesa bank. The day mpesa bank has a monthly close below the 15 handle, the uptrend on the monthly chart will be over! Once that event triggers the market will be ready for a steep fall! Elephants fall harder since mpesa bank has a huge weight on the index!
Trading opportunities will still be there during the bear, but for buy and hold investors, standing aside is also an option until the storm calms down
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
|
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. There are still lots of disbelievers of this bear...I guess the disbelief emanates from the very nature of the downslide coz it has given investors a sliver of hope when things are thick and it has stuck to that script throughout. When the bear is through very few will want to have a look at market prices let alone invest. Most are already weary of the bear after two years, it's not hard to picture how the situation will be after another year or two. On the deflationary note, banks are now unwinding their loan books implying very little new lending while saddled with rising NPLs...illiquidity is gathering pace and it won't be a pleasant show. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
|
lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. There are still lots of disbelievers of this bear...I guess the disbelief emanates from the very nature of the downslide coz it has given investors a sliver of hope when things are thick and it has stuck to that script throughout. When the bear is through very few will want to have a look at market prices let alone invest. Most are already weary of the bear after two years, it's not hard to picture how the situation will be after another year or two. On the deflationary note, banks are now unwinding their loan books implying very little new lending while saddled with rising NPLs...illiquidity is gathering pace and it won't be a pleasant show. The illiquidity will hit the real estate the most
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
|
hisah wrote:Mukiri wrote:mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB @mukiri, glad to hear from you. I was very worried the market swallowed you. How do you like the bear? I hope you have and continue to learn how to cope with the bear as well as become sharper on how to navigate the markets. I'm fine thank you Sir. Thank you, for your kind words and remembering me.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
|
Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:Mukiri wrote:mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB @mukiri, glad to hear from you. I was very worried the market swallowed you. How do you like the bear? I hope you have and continue to learn how to cope with the bear as well as become sharper on how to navigate the markets. I'm fine thank you Sir. Thank you, for your kind words and remembering me.  "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
Looking at the top three banks' results, Kcb is the outlier. While Equity and Coop have taken a serious beat down, Kcb merely got bruised. They must have pulled some neat business in Q4 to stay the execution. Question would be whether they can keep it up as the competition falls further behind...I have my doubts mainly due to the bulging statutory loan loss reserve. Q1 2017 will be worse than Q4 2016 earnings wise. Assuming the same trajectory throughout the year, FY2017 should come in at about half FY 2016 earnings! The top three banks are all risk-on when it comes to Wanjiku lending, the cap law will slow them down the most. The risk averse aka Barclays, Stanchart, Stanbic should fair better in the short term. Equity's liquidity ratios suggests a profound change in strategy to a risk-off model. Whether that is a coping/short term mechanism to navigate the capping or is a permanent change remains to be seen. My thinking is that they are building a buffer for any shocks stemming from their loan book. When the cap law is lifted, expect a massive NPL washout/credit impairment/charge offs especially for the banks with a large number of Wanjikus in their loan book. Depending on when the law is scrapped, that could make a serious dent on FY2017 or FY2018. So banks are not yet out of the woods not by a long shot. Under the same macro conditions, if interest rates are allowed to revert to the pre-cap era, some borrowers who were borderline delinquent in the capping regime will definitely default. Since the economy will not be making a quick recovery and refinancing will be problematic as it is now, many borrowers will be unable to sustain repayments hence the anticipated write offs. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|