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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:maka wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below.  Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out Wololo 1700  By the time the index breaks below 2300 expect a lot of civil unrest which can easily propel the index below 2000!
I wonder where @mukiri went. I hope he is fine. Wouldn't this be a case of the tail wagging the dog? A drop in the index due to "riots" [think PEV 2008 and the subsequent severe bear in 2009] due to a toxic business environment that affects sales/profits of listed firms. Why would there be unrest in Kenya on account of the index dropping when: - Less than 20% of the "investing" population have shares - Even fewer have a significant part of their portfolio in shares (most Kenyans have "land" not shares as their primary investment.) - Over 50% of all CDSC accounts are inactive. - Those who are active (or have significant shares) are unlikely to riot or cause unrest. Such a dramatic drop would mean the economy has snapped meaning a lot of firms will be out of business with many guys jobless. High unemployment rates usually precede civil unrest! The rate at which KE banks are cutting jobs is of concern!
Are economic stagnation and unemployment fueling social unrest?
Quote:This latest report found that, since the global crisis, social unrest had increased in a majority of economies. Insufficient economic growth and high unemployment rates are the two most important determinants. Youth unemployment, like all unemployment, increases social unrest, but the impact of total unemployment on social unrest was actually larger than the effect of youth unemployment, specifically. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mnandii have you been following the Aramco IPO developments? I have a nagging feel that when this supersized IPO floats in 2018, all top cream markets (G10) will top!!! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:@mnandii have you been following the Aramco IPO developments? I have a nagging feel that when this supersized IPO floats in 2018, all top cream markets (G10) will top!!! I have a feeling the US Market is topping..Those flashy headlines and continual all time high breakings of the indices.. Where does money flow in the event the US market tops ??? to the US bonds ??
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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At the NSE,both Demand and supply are thinning!! Always a perfect time to manipulate the market and do stress tests on supply and demand I need some funds
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:"Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the MoodQuote:We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed.
A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming... link If Dow scales above 22000 by March the top will likely set in... Another alternate view via the VIX monthly chart which confirms the US markets are in topping process.
Volatility fits coming soon...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high Some say Kenya's market(s) are directly correlated to the global markets but I am not so sure. If we can get through the elections [free and fair, transparent, no violence, no drama] then the flight from the US markets will give the good firms on the NSE a solid boost. That said, the incumbent/new government has to cut down on waste [insert laughter track] and debt [no, I am not optimistic it will happen] for the NSE to make a solid and sustainable comeback. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high Some say Kenya's market(s) are directly correlated to the global markets but I am not so sure. If we can get through the elections [free and fair, transparent, no violence, no drama] then the flight from the US markets will give the good firms on the NSE a solid boost. That said, the incumbent/new government has to cut down on waste [insert laughter track] and debt [no, I am not optimistic it will happen] for the NSE to make a solid and sustainable comeback. the cycle of losing everything in gain every 5 years is going to drive out many "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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True @miennyma It's a tough scenario. I am a long-term investor. I see lots of value eg KenRe [we need/buy insurance all the time], KK [fuel is a necessity], Unga [food/FCMG], etc at today's prices but sometimes I wonder if I should sell at these prices... And get back in July 2017 at the same/lower prices! [Use the cash to pay off debt, invest in T-Bills/Bonds, etc] I remain wary of MOST firms on the NSE and I have given examples of my non-investable firms. These would probably be non-investable for me regardless of the economic situation or for some even the price eg KQ until there's a clear roadmap to eliminate the Negative Equity. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high Some say Kenya's market(s) are directly correlated to the global markets but I am not so sure. If we can get through the elections [free and fair, transparent, no violence, no drama] then the flight from the US markets will give the good firms on the NSE a solid boost. That said, the incumbent/new government has to cut down on waste [insert laughter track] and debt [no, I am not optimistic it will happen] for the NSE to make a solid and sustainable comeback. The KE tax policy needs to be reviewed for fair representation. Since treasury introduced CGT on equities and bonds and later back-tracked on it, the equity market topped out and has never recovered. The damage done in 2015 by that move is still in play to date.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Liv wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
What has been ailing the market from early 2015 till end of 2016 where it has shed about 2500 points or approximately 45% from a peak @5500 level? Do you still aver that politics has been the underlying issue all along...three years on the trot?
The 911 moment for Kenya happened on 21 September 2013, the terror attack at Westgate mall in the heart of the capital city. I doubt the consequences of that event to the economy have been fully documented....but the fear and uncertainty it brought to this country and particularly to investors and owners of capital resulted in a big dent to the economy and expected growth. Tourism went to down to zero, UN and many embassies cut their staff residing in Nairobi, some economically influential Kenyan families relocated to Canada and UK and the effect of all these were clear one year later towards end of 2014 with profit warnings and lower returns expectation at NSE. After west gate we had a few other attacks in kenya and a big one on 2nd April 2015 at Garissa university college. Just like 911 affected the USA contributing to 2008 financial meltdown among other factors, the effect of terror on the Kenyan economy has been very significant and in my opinion has contributed greatly to the bear since early 2015.
The Economy was on recovery in 2016 ..... There was increased confidence in the country and tourism had started taking off again after major conferences were held in kenya ....by sept 2016 the blogs here were about double bottom for NSE index (after it rose from 2011 level) and the Bulls were confident again.. Then the surprise signing of the interest capping law happened.....and that took the index towards lower 30000s. Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run. In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department. On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:maka wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below. Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out Wololo 1700 By the time the index breaks below 2300 expect a lot of civil unrest which can easily propel the index below 2000!
I wonder where @mukiri went. I hope he is fine. I would be extremely fearful if we were heading into an electioneering period with the index @ 5000/6000 level (like it happened in 2007) as opposed to the current figures. In all possibilities the market could be at the 2000 mark by the time August come knocking...the margin for losses - in absolute terms - even if chaos erupts is small. A 50% (1000 points down) loss from that level - which is already offering discounted prices on many stocks - would mean three digit figures for the NSE20. Put differently, being in an overvalued market heading into a potential landmine event is more worrisome than participating in a fair/undervalued one facing the same set of circumstances. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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obiero wrote:@mnadii I believe in your cartoonery  Believe in Elliott. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:"Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the MoodQuote:We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed.
A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming... link If Dow scales above 22000 by March the top will likely set in... Another alternate view via the VIX monthly chart which confirms the US markets are in topping process.
Volatility fits coming soon...
This is becoming quite tricky. I am hesitant to call a top on the US equities more so with regards to its indices levels. Assets that provide capital preservation seem to be few and far in between leaving no choice but to continue chasing equities. Even the cash is king crowd has to contend with NIRP in many jurisdictions. Nonetheless, US equities should top within a years time frame. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 closes at 2855. YTD 10.39% in the red i.e. 17 trading days since the year begun!!! This is what happens when you break below a critical psychological level. Despondence phase indeed.  A 20% dip will see the index test 2546. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:NSE20 closes at 2855. YTD 10.39% in the red i.e. 17 trading days since the year begun!!! This is what happens when you break below a critical psychological level. Despondence phase indeed. A 20% dip will see the index test 2546. This bear is no joke, looks like the slow unsure bear is gone. The gloves are off. Those fat tails grow fatter every day The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closes at 2855. YTD 10.39% in the red i.e. 17 trading days since the year begun!!! This is what happens when you break below a critical psychological level. Despondence phase indeed. A 20% dip will see the index test 2546. This bear is no joke, looks like the slow unsure bear is gone. The gloves are off. Those fat tails grow fatter every day Except Jubilee, BAT, Unga and Bamburi holding their forte. Safaricon might just bring the desired panic In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to?
Safe for other factors coming to play.....I am very confident that if we go through elections successfully without chaos like 2007/8, the economy will look up and NSE bull will come to town. I am investing based on those premises. What do you expect to happen?
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