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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:FTSE NSE KE 15 breaks below 150 handle with vigor  Down 2.14% intraday. Despondency phase here we come. NSE20 will definitely close the day sub 3000  Still floating above. NSE20 down again 33 points to settle at 3014. Tomorrow just may be Still clutching at straws. Must defend 3000 come what may 
3000 may not be breached right away. A short bounce/sideways action is in the works in the coming weeks. Absent of an outlier event happening between now and FY results, the 3000 mark may just hold. February looks like the perfect time to go sub 3000 convincingly. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter.
The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats. All this when the Dow is knocking the 20,000 door. We should bottom sometime this quarter.......not very long from now but sub 3,000 is sure to print by week close. Early next week should be considered a good time for partial entry. The amount of capital that has piled into US equities since the November election is on a crazy scale. It has outranked every single asset class/stock market by several multiples. This is happening before both the anticipated tax cuts come on board and the bond rout goes global. A bit surprised that European markets have managed to nearly/entirely erase their earlier 2016 losses considering everything that is going on in their backyard. EM/FM stock market and their respective currencies will have a defensive/nasty 2017 if funds are only itching to have a piece of the American pie via dollar hedging, bonds or stocks etc. Assessed independently, KE's affairs are shambolic and it will take time to undo. My estimate is at least one and a half years. Couple that with the fact that foreign participation @70/80% has been the life blood of the NSE for the last two years or so plus the global preference for dollar assets over a weak(er) KES by same investor class and you can see the difficulty in the market bottoming out so soon. Wanjiku activity has been low in the post GFC period and has declined further since the current bear run began. Cbk turned on the spigots in September and October 2016 for some reason which is still unclear. Banks' skeletons/underbelly will be exposed sooner rather than later, more so if most of them choose not to bite the bullet @FY2016 coz FY 2017 will be devastating if the same economic conditions persist or get worse. Something is rotten in that neck of the woods. Even Q1 2017 shall be robust for tier 1 banks.. Banking is alive and well. It's the small banks that are in shida
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:Metasploit wrote:Supply needs to be absorbed..we still have some downside but hoping the oversold levels are reset the soonest...so the rate cap slide was just the beginning
At least we have divergence on RSI and MACD
Noted that on NASI, NSE20 and both FTSE NSE KE indices. Lower lows but higher lows on the TA indicator gauges. A bounce is coming. Siku njema huonekana asubuhi! There was supply of 25 for equity yesterday,HFCK had lots at 11.55-11.80 plus several other counters.. The bottom for this cycle looks like it will be today At least i picked some HFCK but got burned in SAF and EQUITY..The signs to sell were very clear three weeks ago SAF failed to break above KES 20 thrice,Equity was on a constricted bollinger between 30-30.5 with 30 (lower) being prominent The lessons one learns from trading in a bear are painful but valuable
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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But still soon to make a move (those with cash)..watching the trend setter (Safaricom)
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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NIC is taking a beating...wololo possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini.  Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The bear is brutal and merciless Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The bear is brutal and merciless Looking at NIC at 23 Bob vs Rights issue price In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The bear is brutal and merciless Looking at NIC at 23 Bob vs Rights issue price Yes,they also refused my 500k when I wanted hfck rights at 30 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/21/2015 Posts: 151
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mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The bear is brutal and merciless Looking at NIC at 23 Bob vs Rights issue price Yes,they also refused my 500k when I wanted hfck rights at 30 Just when i thought NIC has hit rock bottom, it starts to dig!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Sub 3000 points NSE20 index is given today. ....No betting of the kidney coz you risk losing your essential body parts one by one till we hit rock bottom.....I'm worried if the market can't handle fear associated with breaking psychological mark since 2008 GFC ... John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 895 Location: sky
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Kenyanwallstreet Nairobi Securities Exchange Benchmark 'NSE 20 Share Index" falls below 3000 points to 2991.63, last seen in 2008!!! There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter.
The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats. All this when the Dow is knocking the 20,000 door. We should bottom sometime this quarter.......not very long from now but sub 3,000 is sure to print by week close. Early next week should be considered a good time for partial entry. And printing it did. NSE20 down 43 points to close at 2971, a figure last seen in June 2009 @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter.
The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats. All this when the Dow is knocking the 20,000 door. We should bottom sometime this quarter.......not very long from now but sub 3,000 is sure to print by week close. Early next week should be considered a good time for partial entry. And printing it did. NSE20 down 43 points to close at 2971, a figure last seen in June 2009 On Feb 4 2009 NSE20 closed at 2975.12
Despondence central...
NSE20 down 6.75% in 9 trading days! What a way to start the year $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter.
The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats. All this when the Dow is knocking the 20,000 door. We should bottom sometime this quarter.......not very long from now but sub 3,000 is sure to print by week close. Early next week should be considered a good time for partial entry. And printing it did. NSE20 down 43 points to close at 2971, a figure last seen in June 2009 Despondence central...
NSE20 down 6.75% in 9 trading days! What a way to start the year And no signs of anything to alter the downfall of the NSE(election year, bullish NYSE and dollar, government drowning in loans,credit crunch,job losses,lower profits in business etc).....fat discounts now and ahead.....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:maka wrote:NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The thing to remember is that this particular bear has been very deceptive. Most guys were non-believers when it started out and they kept under-estimating its devastation. It has put investors out of their misery in a very surgical manner unlike the high octane types of 2008 & 2011. Look at the commodities bear run since 2011 to date. Oil was the last to tank in 2014 after putting on a very brave fight. I think the NSE will undergo something similar with safcom being the last one to capitulate. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter.
The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats. All this when the Dow is knocking the 20,000 door. We should bottom sometime this quarter.......not very long from now but sub 3,000 is sure to print by week close. Early next week should be considered a good time for partial entry. And printing it did. NSE20 down 43 points to close at 2971, a figure last seen in June 2009 On Feb 4 2009 NSE20 closed at 2975.12
Despondence central...
NSE20 down 6.75% in 9 trading days! What a way to start the year Wow! It seems even PPT has given up trying to defend the indefensible. Didn't expect sub 3000 so early - in January - February looked like the better bet. This will be a very interesting year from all angles. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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