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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! I severely questioned the rights and NPL spike. The ownership going into an election year doesn't also inspire confidence The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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things looking up? the agreement on IEBC suggests we will have a peaceful election and is therefore a low risk event...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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This bear is turning out to be quite unique. When it started out, the doubting Thomases were by the bucket full. One and a half years down the line fear is yet to hit fever pitch while some are calling for the bottom already...interesting chronicles. Desperation is kicking in slowly but surely as investors discover their predicament with the current dispensation. GOK debt burden is still hovering over the market/economy. The bear may be around for a while longer till that is resolved. That will be the final chapter/episode of this interesting script. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Can i expect 200 points slash today? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? I have feeling the much awaited dip below 3000 points will be here before we know it KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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lochaz-index wrote:This bear is turning out to be quite unique. When it started out, the doubting Thomases were by the bucket full. One and a half years down the line fear is yet to hit fever pitch while some are calling for the bottom already...interesting chronicles.
Desperation is kicking in slowly but surely as investors discover their predicament with the current dispensation. GOK debt burden is still hovering over the market/economy. The bear may be around for a while longer till that is resolved. That will be the final chapter/episode of this interesting script. I agree..Market sentiments are tied to the economy.It will take time before the economy resolves.The index will go lower than GFC. These guys will report shrunk profits
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 895 Location: sky
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mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. Some action at last. That means the market is some 220 odd points off of the 2011 low of 3090. Keep this pace up and we might take out that low pretty soon. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. Was surprised by the overall loss at NSE20 today, was expecting a higher points loss. Tomorrow, then weekend will help to cool nerves!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T.  That was a Great call @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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lochaz-index wrote:This bear is turning out to be quite unique. When it started out, the doubting Thomases were by the bucket full. One and a half years down the line fear is yet to hit fever pitch while some are calling for the bottom already...interesting chronicles.
Desperation is kicking in slowly but surely as investors discover their predicament with the current dispensation. GOK debt burden is still hovering over the market/economy. The bear may be around for a while longer till that is resolved. That will be the final chapter/episode of this interesting script. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Now people will learn what bear market we have been forecasting. The guys who keep saying they look forward to buying shares at lower prices will have the worst surprise of their life! Expect banks to crash with people's money. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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mnandii wrote:Now people will learn what bear market we have been forecasting. The guys who keep saying they look forward to buying shares at lower prices will have the worst surprise of their life!
Expect banks to crash with people's money. I have tried telling wazuans they keep saying I'm scaremongering. Wacha kiumane
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,616
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mnandii wrote:Now people will learn what bear market we have been forecasting. The guys who keep saying they look forward to buying shares at lower prices will have the worst surprise of their life!
Expect banks to crash with people's money. All i see are are great opportunities opening up.Be it in the said banks or if they take the rest of the market down with them.Money will be made,i am following closely.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction The interest capping law should not worry you. Banks can and do handle reduced profits/shrinking NIM admirably. They will always find ways of making money. Illiquidity however is a different beast all together. The rate cap makes a bad situation worse but it doesn't cause it. Those that were struggling with illiquidity have been fast-tracked towards oblivion. Coming at a time when the herd is already spooked - what with Dubai, Imperial and chase bank belly ups - another bank failure will have disastrous consequences. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction The interest capping law should not worry you. Banks can and do handle reduced profits/shrinking NIM admirably. They will always find ways of making money. Illiquidity however is a different beast all together. The rate cap makes a bad situation worse but it doesn't cause it. Those that were struggling with illiquidity have been fast-tracked towards oblivion. Coming at a time when the herd is already spooked - what with Dubai, Imperial and chase bank belly ups - another bank failure will have disastrous consequences. Gotcha. You techies are among the few not running around like headless chickens The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction More haircuts targeting THE TEENS for simba and member. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T. That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction More haircuts targeting THE TEENS for simba and member. @aguy the euro fell off the cliff vs USD. With NSE20 breaking below the trendline floor around 4500, a sharp fall was expected. Though it wasn't as swift as I expected. But the steep dive yesterday is what's needed to shakeout the weak hands faster, in order to kick out the bear.
@SPT if simba and member fall to the teens that will be a very fat tail and I'll scoop that ulcers central in bucket loads. Both gapped down at market open and finished the day on the back of heavy losses. That's a gap to fill when the bulls return
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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