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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1981 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 10:24:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Small lenders and lifetime CEOssmile like Mwangi targeted here
http://www.businessdaily...0/-/xc7xlf/-/index.html

By the way, in KE, you have 7 banks controlling 80% of the deposits and the remaining with only 20% to fight forSad
@SufficientlyP
VituVingiSana
#1982 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 12:22:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
So 46% of the shareholders OPTED-OUT of the Scrip Issue. The Scrip Issue would have been a disaster had it been an OPT-IN choice!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#1983 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 2:27:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Markets crash not because people think it will do so but because they become certain that it will not.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#1984 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 2:36:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
KRA goes after big banks accused of falsifying bad loans

At this rate there's really no bank bottom in sight! Who regulates the banks? CBK or KRA? Is the taxman overstepping his mandate? A mad house this!

The taxman is about to announce a record shortfall in revenue collections. The best smokescreen to explain the mess is the banks. The other alternative would have been to lump the biggest companies(safcom,eabl,equity,kcb et al) and blame tax credits/refunds and under-declaration of profits.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#1985 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 3:08:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Meanwhile coop bank has tested sub 15 today and prints a low of 14.80. Breaks below the 15 handle as VWAP closes at 14.95
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Othelo
#1986 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 4:00:32 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
KRA goes after big banks accused of falsifying bad loans

At this rate there's really no bank bottom in sight! Who regulates the banks? CBK or KRA? Is the taxman overstepping his mandate? A mad house this!

The taxman is about to announce a record shortfall in revenue collections. The best smokescreen to explain the mess is the banks. The other alternative would have been to lump the biggest companies(safcom,eabl,equity,kcb et al) and blame tax credits/refunds and under-declaration of profits.

At Wilson Airport and surrounding tax man is going building to building, door to door checking tax compliance details. Desperate times in deed!!!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
hisah
#1987 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 4:30:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Othelo wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
KRA goes after big banks accused of falsifying bad loans

At this rate there's really no bank bottom in sight! Who regulates the banks? CBK or KRA? Is the taxman overstepping his mandate? A mad house this!

The taxman is about to announce a record shortfall in revenue collections. The best smokescreen to explain the mess is the banks. The other alternative would have been to lump the biggest companies(safcom,eabl,equity,kcb et al) and blame tax credits/refunds and under-declaration of profits.

At Wilson Airport and surrounding tax man is going building to building, door to door checking tax compliance details. Desperate times in deed!!!

That's a witch hunt stunt! What a waste of time and resources. At this rate they'll run investors out of town!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Othelo
#1988 Posted : Friday, July 22, 2016 10:57:24 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
What happened to paka with nine lives shading 10% on the day???
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
instinct
#1989 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2016 3:06:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
This is how you tell we are nearing the bottom of the bear. When such topics feature at the top of the list on wazua

commercial sheep farming - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=741556#post741556

interest of the typical individual investor is simply absent...

hisah
#1990 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2016 4:56:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This bear is very different. I don't like the way it's been stealth in doing the damage. When it flushes things out rapidly it makes it easier to gauge when the sellers are fatigued then the bottom forms. But this slow puncher show is making it difficult to tell if the tyre is the problem or the rim d'oh!

This is why I've been adamant that I don't see signs of a bottom...

This one might need PPT coming from treasury - helicopter monies or a shock policy change to force in a bottom!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Othelo
#1991 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 11:37:00 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Coop Bank, finally smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
maka
#1992 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 11:50:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
This bear is very different. I don't like the way it's been stealth in doing the damage. When it flushes things out rapidly it makes it easier to gauge when the sellers are fatigued then the bottom forms. But this slow puncher show is making it difficult to tell if the tyre is the problem or the rim d'oh!

This is why I've been adamant that I don't see signs of a bottom...

This one might need PPT coming from treasury - helicopter monies or a shock policy change to force in a bottom!


Where are the big fund managers putting their money?it's not like the bond market is also vibrant....esp after this months issue fellows are so confused.
possunt quia posse videntur
hisah
#1993 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 12:16:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
maka wrote:
hisah wrote:
This bear is very different. I don't like the way it's been stealth in doing the damage. When it flushes things out rapidly it makes it easier to gauge when the sellers are fatigued then the bottom forms. But this slow puncher show is making it difficult to tell if the tyre is the problem or the rim d'oh!

This is why I've been adamant that I don't see signs of a bottom...

This one might need PPT coming from treasury - helicopter monies or a shock policy change to force in a bottom!


Where are the big fund managers putting their money?it's not like the bond market is also vibrant....esp after this months issue fellows are so confused.

Many funds are likely sitting in losses since the bear has been very tricky to judge. New funds are likely packed in money markets for the time being.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1994 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 5:23:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 breaks below 3500 handle and closes at 3494 on a day when mpesa banks had bids smashing the sellers on special dividend on top of the earlier declared dividend. Indeed mpesa bank vs the bear market!!! I keep wondering how the index would have been hammered by the bear if mpesa bank price was around 10 - 12 range Think

Three more trading days left in July before we head into August where global markets start preparing for heavy action towards September and October as funds book square for year end. If Q4 becomes a sellside for global stocks, what will happen to NSE20 which simple can't find a floor since 2015 as the bear continues to bite harder?

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
maka
#1995 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 6:20:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
NSE20 breaks below 3500 handle and closes at 3494 on a day when mpesa banks had bids smashing the sellers on special dividend on top of the earlier declared dividend. Indeed mpesa bank vs the bear market!!! I keep wondering how the index would have been hammered by the bear if mpesa bank price was around 10 - 12 range Think

Three more trading days left in July before we head into August where global markets start preparing for heavy action towards September and October as funds book square for year end. If Q4 becomes a sellside for global stocks, what will happen to NSE20 which simple can't find a floor since 2015 as the bear continues to bite harder?






possunt quia posse videntur
lochaz-index
#1996 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 8:26:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The finance and economic realm of the planet is interconnected. More so in the aftermath of the global financial crisis ( which was also economic in nature but the economic bit was under-reported to fit the script). The causes of that crisis were masked and continue to be masked through debt. In short, the lessons were never learnt and the problems were never fixed instead more of the same excesses have been perpetuated ever since.

Every single economic unit is upto its neck in debt from sovereigns, corporates, households, individuals heck even CB's are in on the action. What we might be looking at in its early stages is a deleveraging cycle. All manner of unsustanaible businesses have sprung up fueled by the loose monetary policies globally. That is exemplified by the fact that we have over $13 trillion (about a third) of the sovereign bond yields in negative territory including some whack jobs such as Portugal. Mr market has to unwind the cheap credit so as to sort out the wheat from the chaff as it were.

The dangerous thing about this bear both locally and globally is that there are so many asset classes in bubble territory it is hard to keep up. In terms of severity(both financially and economically) of their downturns this is how the various asset classes rank(from most severe to least severe);
1. Bond market (goes hand in hand with a currency crisis).
2. Real estate market.
3. Commodities market.
3. Stock market.
Leaving the commodities aside - some of which are yet to complete their tanking eg oil - the rest of markets are yet to boil over but at varying levels. The order in which they will be reset is anyone's guess but reset they must. Most of the real estate and bonds are at record all time highs...we all know how this ends. As for KE, since the onset of the GFC, these cheap inflows have mostly shown up in real estate.

Undertaking any form of analysis of KE in isolation is not prudent. It's good to have a global perspective and our euro bond monies amongst other factors have made sure we are tied at the hip with the international happenings. So, other than the tumbling KE economy a lot else is happening.

Safcom vs the NSE bear, I side with the bear every single time though I must admit Safcom has put up one hell of a fight. Any ammo left to keep swimming against the current? Local demand just like the econ has flat lined hence most of the bids have been foreign, which leads to the simple question ...what happens when the plug is pulled from their end?
PS: I don't mean to scare anyone. Just offering some perspective.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#1997 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 8:56:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality.

I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively.

I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned.

So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree.

The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one.

The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately.

Do read:

-THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER.

-CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER.

www.socionomics.net

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
snipermnoma
#1998 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 9:26:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
NSE20 breaks below 3500 handle and closes at 3494 on a day when mpesa banks had bids smashing the sellers on special dividend on top of the earlier declared dividend. Indeed mpesa bank vs the bear market!!! I keep wondering how the index would have been hammered by the bear if mpesa bank price was around 10 - 12 range Think

Three more trading days left in July before we head into August where global markets start preparing for heavy action towards September and October as funds book square for year end. If Q4 becomes a sellside for global stocks, what will happen to NSE20 which simple can't find a floor since 2015 as the bear continues to bite harder?


Safaricom vs Bear is the battle that we are watching. The special dividend will help safcom but for how long can safcom hold out. Is it not inevitable that the bear may lose the short term battle but win the war?
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1999 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 9:59:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Finally, 3662,.....4 year low last seen in June 2012 prints.....on the NSE20


Finally the weekly chart bollinger squeeze raptures to the downside. Volatility is back! That setup has taken time to form. Solid distribution that was so the market should fall like a rock! Losing the 3700 - 4000 trading range confirms lower lows trend continuation. 200 day EMA is at 3724 and the index is now below this value confirming bears are firmly in control. Fat tails coming up smile

The narrow trading range gives way. Eight months on the trot it had been stagnant and it chooses post brexit to snap out of its slumber. Only during the GFC period did it mark time for that long and we all know at what level we ended up in. Bear in mind that these are just the aftershocks of the vote and not the real tremors. This does not portend well for the NSE20. Crash and burn coming up.


What many people have not factored in is that we no longer have an economist(with a proven track record) in power.
Even the previous bull run which ended in Feb 2015 began in 2012 when Kibaki was still in power. We are yet to see a bull run start with arap mashamba and his boss at the helm.
The huge NPL figures been seen in KCB remind me of pre Kibaki days. I only hope politicians are not involved.
I think we have a long way to go as far as market bottoming is concerned. It would be safe to pick out counters with minimal political interference and with stable partners like Vodafone and you will be just fine.
I'm thinking Bamburi, Member and MpesaBank.
For now, its...................
#MpesaBank vs NSEsmile
@SufficientlyP
kasibitta
#2000 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 10:18:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
mnandii wrote:
Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality.

I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively.

I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned.

So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree.

The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one.

The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately.

Do read:

-THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER.

-CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER.

www.socionomics.net



Thankyou.An interesting perspective to the current happenings.Always look forward to reading your posts.Keep them coming
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