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My Picks for 2014
Rank: Member Joined: 1/4/2013 Posts: 255
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icecube wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Below is an update of the one year long investment journey that I began in 2014:
1st Phase
Pan Africa (40% of portfolio)= Return on investment 49.44%
HFCK (30% of portfolio)= Return on investment 40.76%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (20% of portfolio) = Return on investment 44.63%
Cash (10% of portfolio)= Return on investment 0%
Total Aggregate Gain after Phase 1 = 40.93% Return on investment
All counters were sold off after the 1st phase. Assuming an arbitrary figure of 100,000Ksh as starting capital, the first phase would have yielded Ksh 40,930 in seven months and the starting capital of the next phase would be Ksh 140,930.
Phase 2
Longhorn Publishers (40% of portfolio) = Return on investment 35.22%
Liberty Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment 27.93%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment (1.54%)
Return on investment of phase 2 so far = 22.12%
TOTAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT FROM JANUARY = 72.08%
The Index has risen about 6% since January...thus, my portfolio has outperformed the nse 20 share index by a factor of 12 for a period of almost 9 months.
With an arbitrary value of Ksh 100,000, my portfolio should read Ksh 172,080 before transaction expenses. The gain is derived from both phases with returns from phase one also being used as starting capital for phase 2.
Going Forward:
Longhorn Publishers:- Having made a surprising announcement of a Ksh 1.20 final dividend and a bonus issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held, I am forced to hold on as I await better prices before the books close later on in the year. In the meantime, I expect the counter to rally hard to reflect the bonus issue in full upon when I will make my decision whether to sell or hold on.
Liberty :- This counter is now beyong my buying threshold and not yet near my target. I am forced to wait as there is no material announcement.
CfC Stanbic Holdings:- This counter has experienced a lot of resistance around the Ksh 120-135 region. Since I have no idle cash at the moment, I have no choice but to wait. I will load more below Ksh 130 if I get more cash or realize any gains from other counters.
#Happy Investing 2014# I like this guy! Very bold and very practical. No sentimental hold on any particular counter. Never shy to give figures. Sell, make money and move on. I like your style. keep us posted. Some of us are learning a thing of two from you.  I am impressed. I like the focus and sobriety and outcomes. You clearly know your game.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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its2013 wrote:icecube wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Below is an update of the one year long investment journey that I began in 2014:
1st Phase
Pan Africa (40% of portfolio)= Return on investment 49.44%
HFCK (30% of portfolio)= Return on investment 40.76%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (20% of portfolio) = Return on investment 44.63%
Cash (10% of portfolio)= Return on investment 0%
Total Aggregate Gain after Phase 1 = 40.93% Return on investment
All counters were sold off after the 1st phase. Assuming an arbitrary figure of 100,000Ksh as starting capital, the first phase would have yielded Ksh 40,930 in seven months and the starting capital of the next phase would be Ksh 140,930.
Phase 2
Longhorn Publishers (40% of portfolio) = Return on investment 35.22%
Liberty Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment 27.93%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment (1.54%)
Return on investment of phase 2 so far = 22.12%
TOTAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT FROM JANUARY = 72.08%
The Index has risen about 6% since January...thus, my portfolio has outperformed the nse 20 share index by a factor of 12 for a period of almost 9 months.
With an arbitrary value of Ksh 100,000, my portfolio should read Ksh 172,080 before transaction expenses. The gain is derived from both phases with returns from phase one also being used as starting capital for phase 2.
Going Forward:
Longhorn Publishers:- Having made a surprising announcement of a Ksh 1.20 final dividend and a bonus issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held, I am forced to hold on as I await better prices before the books close later on in the year. In the meantime, I expect the counter to rally hard to reflect the bonus issue in full upon when I will make my decision whether to sell or hold on.
Liberty :- This counter is now beyong my buying threshold and not yet near my target. I am forced to wait as there is no material announcement.
CfC Stanbic Holdings:- This counter has experienced a lot of resistance around the Ksh 120-135 region. Since I have no idle cash at the moment, I have no choice but to wait. I will load more below Ksh 130 if I get more cash or realize any gains from other counters.
#Happy Investing 2014# I like this guy! Very bold and very practical. No sentimental hold on any particular counter. Never shy to give figures. Sell, make money and move on. I like your style. keep us posted. Some of us are learning a thing of two from you. I am impressed. I like the focus and sobriety and outcomes. You clearly know your game. A bold 'new comer' outdoing old guards
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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@Mukiri. The "member" has been around since at least 26/03/2012! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/4/2013 Posts: 255
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The titles 'hello' 'newfarer' 'member' are not accurate in describing experience. I know someone who has been an ardent follower of wazua since around 2006/7 yet he has never registered.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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jerry wrote:@Mukiri. The "member" has been around since at least 26/03/2012! The young man is a student of @Stocksmaster and @Yaserbigchair, he learnt well. Where are these two? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/11/2014 Posts: 72 Location: Nairobi
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Which are the best shares to buy currently? please explain why. Bulls make money,bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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edwinmukiri wrote:Which are the best shares to buy currently? please explain why. Currently, I can only buy CFC Stanbic at any price below Ksh 130. I anticipate an increase in profitability for the company of at least 30% for the FY 2014 which will effectively make the P/E around 6. Currently, banks are trading at a P/E of around 12 and 13...so it is easily one of the cheapest banking stocks available. If it was to be valued like other banks with a P/E of around 13, then you would effectively double your money. These are just my two cents though. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/11/2014 Posts: 72 Location: Nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:edwinmukiri wrote:Which are the best shares to buy currently? please explain why. Currently, I can only buy CFC Stanbic at any price below Ksh 130. I anticipate an increase in profitability for the company of at least 30% for the FY 2014 which will effectively make the P/E around 6. Currently, banks are trading at a P/E of around 12 and 13...so it is easily one of the cheapest banking stocks available. If it was to be valued like other banks with a P/E of around 13, then you would effectively double your money. These are just my two cents though. Thanks a lot for ur advice ... i prefer asking than making uninformed decisions. Bulls make money,bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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INVESTMENT ACTIVITY My investment philosophy does not allow me to invest in more than 4 counters at any given time. However, with only three stocks in play, I don not feel sufficiently diversified and sitting on cash in a bull market is a crime punishable by the electric chair. As such, I took some time to hunt for a good bargain in NSE as my fourth counter. Stock: Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation FY 2012 – 1,914,000,000 (Increase of about 45% from previous year) FY 2013 – 2,801,000,000 (Increase of about 46% from previous year) HY 2014 – 1,248,000,000 (Increase of about 6% from HY 2013) Kenya Re saw various challenges that dented its half year profits although it still managed an increase in profitability. There was the JKIA fire where they were named one of the re-insurers of APA Insurance and therefore had to part with 0.5 Billion in claims for the fire. I am assuming that this kind of monster claim is an isolated event and should therefore be ignored over the medium term. The counter has a P/E of less than 6 which means that it is grossly undervalued. The dividend is nothing to smile about, but I view it as a growth stock. I will start buying at Ksh 18 and below starting tomorrow but at very small quantities hence no need of indicating the percentage yet. I also hope to cash in on one of my other three counters very soon and redeploy the gains here. #Happy Investing 2014# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Currently, I can only buy CFC Stanbic at any price below Ksh 130. I anticipate an increase in profitability for the company of at least 30% for the FY 2014 which will effectively make the P/E around 6. Currently, banks are trading at a P/E of around 12 and 13...so it is easily one of the cheapest banking stocks available. If it was to be valued like other banks with a P/E of around 13, then you would effectively double your money. These are just my two cents though. S.Mutaga III wrote:
Currently, I can only buy CFC Stanbic at any price below Ksh 130. I anticipate an increase in profitability for the company of at least 30% for the FY 2014 which will effectively make the P/E around 6. Currently, banks are trading at a P/E of around 12 and 13...so it is easily one of the cheapest banking stocks available. If it was to be valued like other banks with a P/E of around 13, then you would effectively double your money. These are just my two cents though. What about the elders 'shouting' that there is an impending disaster? Those who call you a 'stone-thrower' if you question their motives? (Si you know, the ones who pumped up KPLC, before prophesying doom)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Currently, iam also heavy on KenRe. I also see a 30 soon. Their low PE was one of the factors I considered. Large gvt shareholding is one of the downsided. Eventually though, considering that bull is still with us, I see a day for KenRe in the horizon. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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Gatheuzi wrote:Currently, iam also heavy on KenRe. I also see a 30 soon. Their low PE was one of the factors I considered. Large gvt shareholding is one of the downsided. Eventually though, considering that bull is still with us, I see a day for KenRe in the horizon. Don't you think CFCI will take you to 30 faster? I bought KNRE @ 19.3 but I guess I should have picked CFCI instead, purely based on demand and supply.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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this will be interesting to watch. pump pump. kenre because of gava, I can't touch it. but it's better than the other gava laggards at least. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Akenyan2014 wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Currently, iam also heavy on KenRe. I also see a 30 soon. Their low PE was one of the factors I considered. Large gvt shareholding is one of the downsided. Eventually though, considering that bull is still with us, I see a day for KenRe in the horizon. Don't you think CFCI will take you to 30 faster? I bought KNRE @ 19.3 but I guess I should have picked CFCI instead, purely based on demand and supply. Yes based on demand you can say Kre is slower, but I gave more weight to relative cheaper valuation in comparison to insurance sector in general. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/19/2014 Posts: 125
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Am buying lots of Kenya Power at 14. This is a stock I wont sell till it stops being a monopoly. Am keeping it for future dividends. Plus electricity demand keeps growing with more development... South Africa electricity demand is at 32,000mw while Kenya its just 1400mw....I see so much room for growth
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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The real examination is knowing whether to sell longhorn before the books close or after the books close. As soon as 31 hits, I will halt my journey with the publisher. Until then, I plan on staying put. If the price fails to materialize, I will wait for the books to close. Happy Investing A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play. Phase Two Breakdown CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%) Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09% Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1% Aggregate Return of phase two (127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18 193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18 52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year. Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit 193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18 93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends. #Happy Investing 2014# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play. Phase Two Breakdown CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%) Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09% Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1% Aggregate Return of phase two (127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18 193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18 52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year. Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit 193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18 93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends. #Happy Investing 2014# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/14/2010 Posts: 521 Location: Nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play.
Phase Two Breakdown
CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%)
Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09%
Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1%
Aggregate Return of phase two
(127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18
193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18
52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI
From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year.
Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit
193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18
93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI
TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI
NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends.
#Happy Investing 2014# Keep it up. You are doing good and we are learning alot.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/7/2010 Posts: 251 Location: nairobi
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The optimist wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play.
Phase Two Breakdown
CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%)
Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09%
Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1%
Aggregate Return of phase two
(127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18
193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18
52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI
From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year.
Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit
193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18
93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI
TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI
NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends.
#Happy Investing 2014# Keep it up. You are doing good and we are learning alot. Thanks for making me jump into Longhorn at 15.5 and exciting after barely a month at a healthy price of 27. It was the easiest money i have picked recently.... i could do with another GEM!
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