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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
Cde Monomotapa
#41 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:12:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.


Precisely. Re: KCB. Next....
obiero
#42 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 9:29:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
On KCB Q3, the mark was surely missed. This necessitates a revision of Equity Bank down to 15.4B. I eagerly await Coop Bank, there is something good happening on that counter
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
mwekez@ji
#43 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:15:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Cde, interesting read this other cbk report released yesterday, titled "Demand for Credit Increases", >>> http://www.centralbank.go.ke/im...YREPORTSEPTEMBER2013.pdf

Summary 1

• The aggregate balance sheet (total assets) increased by 4.4 percent from Ksh 2.51 trillion in June 2013 to Ksh 2.62 trillion in September 2013.

• Gross loans and advances grew by 4.8% from Ksh 1.45 trillion in June 2013 to Ksh 1.52 trillion in September 2013.

• Banking sector deposits increased by 2.7% from Ksh 1.86 trillion in June 2013 to Ksh 1.91 trillion in September 2013.

• Total shareholders’ funds increased by 4.1 percent from Kshs 394.4 billion in June 2013 to Kshs 410.6 billion in September 2013.

• Cumulative unaudited pre-tax profits for the quarter ended 30th September 2013 stood at Kshs 92.5 billion compared to Kshs 80.8 billion for the quarter ending 30th September 2012, a 14.5% increase.


Summary 2

• Demand for credit generally increased in most economic sectors, with cheaper credit and increasingly available investment opportunities being the main driving factors; less significant drivers were the retention of the Central Bank Rate in September 2013 at 8.5% and a more stable political environment.

• Credit standards remained largely unchanged across most economic sectors in Q3 of 2013. However, these tightened marginally for consumer loans but eased for trade loans.

• In Q4 of 2013, NPLs are expected to increase in the personal/ household loan category while declining in the Trade, Tourism, Building and Transport sectors.

• In Q4 of 2013, most banks intend to intensify recovery efforts in four sectors namely Personal/Household, Transport, Tourism and the Building sector.
Ericsson
#44 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:41:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,067
Location: NAIROBI
@obiero;how did u arrive at Equity Q3 PBT at ksh.15.4B yet at Q2 the PBT was at ksh.8.95B.
Does it mean Equity will clock ksh.6.5B in the period July 1 to September 30.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Cde Monomotapa
#45 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:43:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cheers @mwekez@ji. Yup, certainly a 'U' recovery scenario for earnings. In my estimation, the point of inflection might be in March 2014.

Looking at KCB, the only trick to prop up FY '13 earnings might be tinkering provisions in lieu of recoveries in Q4. Otw, earnings growth y-o-y will either be flat or single digit. How investors will take the change in dividend policy is also an outlier.

Sector wide, it would be realistic to still expect a progressive uptake of loans in Q4, but not enough to offset the effects of declining rates on interest income. Hence, why I see the inflection in March 2014.

NBK's numbers should be interesting.
obiero
#46 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 12:38:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cheers @mwekez@ji. Yup, certainly a 'U' recovery scenario for earnings. In my estimation, the point of inflection might be in March 2014.

Looking at KCB, the only trick to prop up FY '13 earnings might be tinkering provisions in lieu of recoveries in Q4. Otw, earnings growth y-o-y will either be flat or single digit. How investors will take the change in dividend policy is also an outlier.

Sector wide, it would be realistic to still expect a progressive uptake of loans in Q4, but not enough to offset the effects of declining rates on interest income. Hence, why I see the inflection in March 2014.

NBK's numbers should be interesting.

@ericsson.. equity did good business for county govs in q3, plus I js dont imagine it cld have a lower PBT compared to KCB given that the lion has started cookin figures js to save face. ask me for details on that claim
@cde thanks for accepting that the lion is wounded.. coop is eating crazy market share. most guys still dont believe that Family Bank has more clients than KCB. Equity, Coop too have about/more than double KCB's client base
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 12:42:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,637
Location: Nairobi
@Obiero - Tell us more re: cooing by Simba

Family is an also-ran Equity. It will grow but huge number of small accounts so the topline growth may be slower. It's just that everyone & their grandma are in that space. Equity, KCB, Jamii Bora, etc... even CBA via M-Shwari.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#48 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 12:54:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,067
Location: NAIROBI
@Obiero;R u aware that the current gava is not favouring Equity compared to the previous one.
As part of the ksh.5 B loan deal that Equity gave the former NCC;NCC was to transfer it's main a/c to Equity.This was reversed and the main account transferred to NBK which is a state owned bank while equity was private.Equity will have a lower PBT compared to KCB.Equity had a slow down in q1 versus q2.
R u not seeing CBA is the new equity in the UhuRuto gava.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#49 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:34:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@Obiero;R u aware that the current gava is not favouring Equity compared to the previous one.
As part of the ksh.5 B loan deal that Equity gave the former NCC;NCC was to transfer it's main a/c to Equity.This was reversed and the main account transferred to NBK which is a state owned bank while equity was private.Equity will have a lower PBT compared to KCB.Equity had a slow down in q1 versus q2.
R u not seeing CBA is the new equity in the UhuRuto gava.

You have a point on recent government dealings.. Even NSSF moved a number of its a/c from one of the big ones to NBK
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
obiero
#50 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:36:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
@ericsson. county govs have a free hand via governors in which bank they choose. money is changin hands at county level. need I explain who is most shrewd?
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
mwekez@ji
#51 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:47:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Equity Bank Q3 2013 results will be released on Monday, 4th November 2013 at 7.30am ... tick tock
mwekez@ji
#52 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:49:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
Equity Bank Q3 2013 results will be released on Monday, 4th November 2013 at 7.30am ... tick tock


For online community, livestream will be available here http://equitybankgroup.com/inde...ty-bank-group-livestream
Metasploit
#53 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 2:50:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:
Equity Bank Q3 2013 results will be released on Monday, 4th November 2013 at 7.30am ... tick tock


Supply test tested today.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
xxxxx
#54 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 10:16:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 502
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M


@obiero, tell the bar patrons to be careful; the barman must be putting something poisonous in their drinks.Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
obiero
#55 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 11:30:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
xxxxx wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M


@obiero, tell the bar patrons to be careful; the barman must be putting something poisonous in their drinks.Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

@xxx Restatements were made on projections for Q3 2013:
KCB PBT 17.0B Actual 15.2B
Equity PBT 15.4B Actual 12.6B
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M Actual 894.7M [/quote]
Only one out of three so far has been spot on but many results still to come. I hope @guru254 isnt seeing this..
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
obiero
#56 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2013 6:25:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
Family Bank up 138% in Q3 to KES 1.2B.. Best results from any bank this year

www.capitalfm.co.ke/busi...nk-q3-profit-to-sh1-2bn/
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
obiero
#57 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2013 9:52:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
xxxxx wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M


@obiero, tell the bar patrons to be careful; the barman must be putting something poisonous in their drinks.Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

@xxx Restatements were made on projections for Q3 2013:
KCB PBT 17.0B Actual 15.2B
Equity PBT 15.4B Actual 12.6B
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B Actual 1.2B
HFCK PBT 875M Actual 894.7M

Only one out of three so far has been spot on but many results still to come. I hope @guru254 isnt seeing this.. [/quote]
Check Q3 NBK insider information at work. 2 out of 4 results now spot on.. steam is gathering, credibility being cemented
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
symbols
#58 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2013 9:55:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
obiero wrote:
Quote:
obiero wrote:
xxxxx wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M


@obiero, tell the bar patrons to be careful; the barman must be putting something poisonous in their drinks.Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

@xxx Restatements were made on projections for Q3 2013:
KCB PBT 17.0B Actual 15.2B
Equity PBT 15.4B Actual 12.6B
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B Actual 1.2B
HFCK PBT 875M Actual 894.7M

Only one out of three so far has been spot on but many results still to come. I hope @guru254 isnt seeing this..

Check Q3 NBK insider information at work. 2 out of 4 results now spot on.. steam is gathering, credibility being cemented


#Making/Losing money 2013
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#59 Posted : Friday, November 08, 2013 8:32:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,160
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
symbols wrote:
obiero wrote:
Quote:
obiero wrote:
xxxxx wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M


@obiero, tell the bar patrons to be careful; the barman must be putting something poisonous in their drinks.Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

@xxx Restatements were made on projections for Q3 2013:
KCB PBT 17.0B Actual 15.2B
Equity PBT 15.4B Actual 12.6B
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B Actual 1.2B
HFCK PBT 875M Actual 894.7M

Only one out of three so far has been spot on but many results still to come. I hope @guru254 isnt seeing this..

Check Q3 NBK insider information at work. 2 out of 4 results now spot on.. steam is gathering, credibility being cemented


#Making/Losing money 2013

smile
Markets
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Friday, November 08, 2013 10:21:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,637
Location: Nairobi
@obiero NBK's Group PBT is 1.282bn so you were spot on!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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