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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
muganda
#21 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 4:24:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,878
@VituVingiSana, which results, Centum?
Meanwhile...
cnn
#22 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 5:32:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,577
HFCK have grown PBT by 58% as compared to Q3 last year,PAT up 70%.The loan book grew by about a billion shillings versus June 2013(about 3% growth) and 15% growth versus Q3 2012,the increase in the NPLs markedly slower in the last quarter as compared to earlier in the year.
mwekez@ji
#23 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 5:43:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Metasploit wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)


Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today.

Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders.

CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share


^Metasploit

Equity is top mover today

Foreign buys; 98.1%
Foreign sales; 95.5%
cnn
#24 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 6:15:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,577
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M

894.7M,beats your estimate.
Metasploit
#25 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 6:46:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)


Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today.

Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders.

CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share


^Metasploit

Equity is top mover today

Foreign buys; 98.1%
Foreign sales; 95.5%


Thanks a bunch .I meant a block bid of 752K.
The volumes trading for the past week speaks alot.I will monitor it till Friday.
Btw how do you get these stats.I have paid for mystocks which doesnt help me much as it give a net foreign buy/sale.Would pay an arm and a leg for those statistics

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Metasploit
#26 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 7:03:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
cnn wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M

894.7M,beats your estimate.


That was close.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#27 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 7:41:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,160
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Metasploit wrote:
cnn wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M

894.7M,beats your estimate.


That was close.

@CNN you should be congratulating him instead. Standard deviation/variance too low to warrant that comment.
Good job @Obiero!
Markets
Metasploit
#28 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 7:57:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
cnn wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M

894.7M,beats your estimate.


That was close.

@CNN you should be congratulating him instead. Standard deviation/variance too low to warrant that comment.
Good job @Obiero!


Hope equity brings something close to that.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
mwekez@ji
#29 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 8:34:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Metasploit wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)


Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today.

Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders.

CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share


^Metasploit

Equity is top mover today

Foreign buys; 98.1%
Foreign sales; 95.5%


Thanks a bunch .I meant a block bid of 752K.
The volumes trading for the past week speaks alot.I will monitor it till Friday.
Btw how do you get these stats.I have paid for mystocks which doesnt help me much as it give a net foreign buy/sale.Would pay an arm and a leg for those statistics


I get the data from my brokers' end of day reports (sib & kestrel). Cfc used to have an online trading system for its clients which was giving this data on a real time basis. However, they shifted to a system that doesn't have this :(
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:18:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,637
Location: Nairobi
muganda wrote:
@VituVingiSana, which results, Centum?
Meanwhile...
Ahhh, H1 results for Centum are awaited like most other financials.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:19:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,637
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
obiero wrote:
finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M

894.7M,beats your estimate.
And that is a great thing! Of course, these are unaudited & we don't know about the NPLs until they are scrutinized further. Great call by @obiero
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#32 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:36:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
Thanks to all who recognised the close call on HFCK. I only had insider information on two of the stated companies hence most are extrapolated forecasts.. These are useful dialogues that should bring us value as investors. Btw, im a student of Ben Graham.. Most of the foreign buyers and local intelligent investors trade on P/E along other metrics. You must learn to forecast stock price in relation to earnings. Watch out for Coop Bank
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 11:52:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,637
Location: Nairobi
@Obiero - Whoa! That would mean Co-op is only 400 mn short of full 2012 PBT. I think YTD 3Q will be closer to 9.2bn than 9.6bn. Is your 9.6bn an Exchange Bar guesstimate?

Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher ;-) I have his book The Intelligent Investor ;-)

If we use an estimated/forward EPS of 2.25 then the PER looks decent but not substantially cheaper than DTB, I&M, NIC or CFC
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksmaster
#34 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 12:18:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Obiero - Whoa! That would mean Co-op is only 400 mn short of full 2012 PBT. I think YTD 3Q will be closer to 9.2bn than 9.6bn. Is your 9.6bn an Exchange Bar guesstimate?

Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher ;-) I have his book The Intelligent Investor ;-)

If we use an estimated/forward PAT of 2.25 then the PER looks decent but not substantially cheaper than DTB, I&M, NIC or CFC

I anticipate an EPS of about Ksh 1.70 for Q3 2013; and a full year 2013 EPS of 2.35.

Happy hunting
VituVingiSana
#35 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 4:43:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,637
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Obiero - Whoa! That would mean Co-op is only 400 mn short of full 2012 PBT. I think YTD 3Q will be closer to 9.2bn than 9.6bn. Is your 9.6bn an Exchange Bar guesstimate?

Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher ;-) I have his book The Intelligent Investor ;-)

If we use an estimated/forward PAT of 2.25 then the PER looks decent but not substantially cheaper than DTB, I&M, NIC or CFC

I anticipate an EPS of about Ksh 1.70 for Q3 2013; and a full year 2013 EPS of 2.35.
I have to admit I would rather go for I&M, NIC or DTB than Coop at current prices. The difference in the PER is negligible yet the potential growth remains higher for the smaller banks.

Coop - Kenya [saturated with a lot of competition from Equity, Family even Jamii Bora] & South Sudan [lot of potential but high risk as well].

I&M, NIC & DTB - Kenya [limited number of branches so there is potential in the High Net Worth as well as larger SMEs. There is a lot of competition but the 'low base effect' has some legs] EAC [small branches/networks but all are pursuing an EAC strategy which is beneficial as the "Coalition of the Willing" gets closer. Many of the cross-border firms are medium enterprises that have one of these as their banker/s.

I&M - Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Mauritius. And looking at Uganda.
DTB - Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and looking at Rwanda. IFC owns 10%
NIC - Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#36 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 6:37:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
KCB PBT is for once a top secret? All links iv checked talk about PAT. Who knows the PBT aweke hapa tuone exchange bar kama bado iko alert
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
guru267
#37 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 8:07:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
obiero
#38 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 8:36:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues!

haha. its js an exhange of figures by wazua faithful.. indeed some are calculated guesses and I have openly stated that.. the guru267 unexplained bitterness continues?!
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
obiero
#39 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 8:38:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,996
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues!

Btw, badala ya kuropokwa si unaeza leta PBT ya KCB?
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,000 ABP 6.45
the deal
#40 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 8:42:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,527
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
guru267 wrote:
The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues!

Btw, badala ya kuropokwa si unaeza leta PBT ya KCB?

KCB Q3 2013 PBT Ksh15.1Bn.
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