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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
VituVingiSana
#2421 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 8:42:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,811
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#2422 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 9:45:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,412
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya Re
FInal dividend Ksh.0.1
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
My 2 cents
#2423 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 9:59:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 893
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!


Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.
My 2 cents
#2424 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 10:03:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 893
Ericsson wrote:
Kenya Re
FInal dividend Ksh.0.1


K-RE has a very inconsistent dividend policy.
(Earlier years adjusted the the 4 - 1 split)


Dividend K-RE
2008 − 0.13
2009 − 0.13
2010 − 0.09
2011 − 0.09
2012 − 0.10
2013 − 0.15
2014 − 0.18
2015 − 0.19
2016 − 0.20
2017 − 0.21
2018 − 0.11
2019 − 0.10
2020 − 0.20
2021 − 0.10
Ericsson
#2425 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 10:16:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,412
Location: NAIROBI
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46 Actual -0.664
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#2426 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 11:32:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,811
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!


Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.

Then what would you recommend one uses for comparison?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#2427 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 1:16:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,152
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46 Actual -0.664

DTB is sickly

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Sir invest
#2428 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 4:57:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/19/2015
Posts: 113
Use Total Interest Income Vs Total Assets.............you will know which bank is cooking books to minimize Tax liability and dividend payout.
My 2 cents
#2429 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 7:22:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 893
VituVingiSana wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!


Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.


Then what would you recommend one uses for comparison?


For future growth prospects, I look at growth in customer deposits.
My 2 cents
#2430 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 7:24:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 893
Sir invest wrote:
Use Total Interest Income Vs Total Assets.............you will know which bank is cooking books to minimize Tax liability and dividend payout.


Thanks for the tip.
VituVingiSana
#2431 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 7:24:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,811
Location: Nairobi
Sir invest wrote:
Use Total Interest Income Vs Total Assets.............you will know which bank is cooking books to minimize Tax liability and dividend payout.
Please post the list for us.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#2432 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 7:56:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,152
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Sir invest wrote:
Use Total Interest Income Vs Total Assets.............you will know which bank is cooking books to minimize Tax liability and dividend payout.
Please post the list for us.

Why minimize profit? Most of the banks are in a profit race!

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2433 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2022 7:57:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,152
Location: nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!


Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.


Then what would you recommend one uses for comparison?


For future growth prospects, I look at growth in customer deposits.

Not a bad measure but deposits fly between banks on a whim

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
mlennyma
#2434 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2022 12:00:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,139
Location: nairobi
Q1 is over
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
My 2 cents
#2435 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2022 7:51:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 893
obiero wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!


Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.


Then what would you recommend one uses for comparison?


For future growth prospects, I look at growth in customer deposits.

Not a bad measure but deposits fly between banks on a whim


Total customer deposits in tier 1 banks are not volatile, most move up between 5 - 10% every year. I focus on the % growth. So it was alarming that in 2021, Stanbic had negative growth. This is not common with tier 1s.
VituVingiSana
#2436 Posted : Friday, April 08, 2022 8:34:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,811
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
obiero wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46

I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB

I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!


Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.


Then what would you recommend one uses for comparison?


For future growth prospects, I look at growth in customer deposits.

Not a bad measure but deposits fly between banks on a whim


Total customer deposits in tier 1 banks are not volatile, most move up between 5 - 10% every year. I focus on the % growth. So it was alarming that in 2021, Stanbic had negative growth. This is not common with tier 1s.
Increasing deposits is easy - even at Tier 1 banks - if you do not care about the cost of deposits. I don't know if it is still the case but there was a time when you could shop around large deposits amongst banks at the EOQ/EOY.

Stanbic may have taken a view that it didn't want expensive deposits aka "hot money" or there were large withdrawals. Trends over years > one-time events.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#2437 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2022 7:30:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,412
Location: NAIROBI
Q1 2022 PBT in KES.Bn
NCBA---4.9bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#2438 Posted : Wednesday, May 04, 2022 7:13:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,412
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Q1 2022 PBT in KES.Bn
NCBA---4.848bn

Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#2439 Posted : Tuesday, May 10, 2022 10:58:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,412
Location: NAIROBI
HFCK Ksh.0.039bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#2440 Posted : Friday, May 13, 2022 6:38:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,412
Location: NAIROBI
Equity Group ksh.15.3bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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