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Why LAPSSET should be downgraded
wanyee
#21 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 1:05:09 PM
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Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
mkonomtupu wrote:
alma wrote:
very interesting. Can anyone in the know please explain to me why the extremely slow movement to upgrading the Mombasa railway line? It seems every time someone mentions railway on this forum there is a giant sucking sound of silence.


You build infrastructure to cater for national strategic interest just like the US Interstate highway system was primarily built to enable quick evacuation and dispersal of americans from the cities in case of a soviet attack. The mombasa railway line was built to enable the British control east africa all the way to eastern congo. Now in the 1960's to 1970's Uganda was more powerful military wise and unless you are an idiot you wouldn't upgrade that line you will be overrun within hours because 70% of the kenya population lives along the railway line. Upgrading that line is national suicide unless you can defend it. That's why lapsset is more strategically viable it can be easily protected in the northern plains and opens a whole part of the country.


well the over running bit questionable but having a fail-over route is bankable..plus opening up a whole new frontier which the powerful Laikipia conservationists are fighting tooth and nail
kizee1
#22 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 1:05:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
someone in gaament shud watch"the men who built America", lapsset is a very minor project compared to what those men accomplished in their day, i believe the government should create enough incentives for private sector financing of infrastructure projects
wanyee
#23 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 1:23:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
kizee1 wrote:
someone in gaament shud watch"the men who built America", lapsset is a very minor project compared to what those men accomplished in their day, i believe the government should create enough incentives for private sector financing of infrastructure projects

different times ,dynamics, funding models, legal systems..you can imagine in Kenya you need to contend with the "evil" society...the now regular local community, NEMA, power brokers, conmen , bandits ...the closest we come to akina Cornelius Vanderbilt is kina Dj Ck..may be Trans-century ...or may be even over-haul the huge Saccos into corporates flexible enough that can gamble their huge liquidity..but the again who? they would not ..the story of "the men who built America" is fraught and replete with numerous bankruptcies, liquidations and take-overs d'oh!
limanika
#24 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 1:40:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.
Njung'e
#25 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 1:47:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
We may not have money like UAE but i love their Prezzo Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.He walks to a point and stands there and says,"I want the best and largest hospital here in the next 18 months"....and it is done!(Hiyo ndio kutenda na kusema).I first heard about a standard gauge railway line in Kenya way back in 1992.21 years later,we are still talking big with not even a metre of railway line,standard or otherwise.SAD!
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
wanyee
#26 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 1:52:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
Njung'e wrote:
We may not have money like UAE but i love their Prezzo Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.He walks to a point and stands there and says,"I want the best and largest hospital here in the next 18 months"....and it is done!(Hiyo ndio kutenda na kusema).I first heard about a standard gauge railway line in Kenya way back in 1992.21 years later,we are still talking big with not even a metre of railway line,standard or otherwise.SAD!

Its because here we have unnecessary bureaucracy and "enlightened" ones that second guess every move that is made ..sometimes misguided pessimism is confused to be wit whereas it just none-senseLaughing out loudly
FundamentAli
#27 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 2:47:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
limanika wrote:
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.

Reli will take maendeleo there. Then Nairobians will be sainging Nairobi si Kenya. The potential of spurring growth for new Railway line is huge. Secondly, with projected growth for the region, the current infrastructure (port + railway) are grossly inadequate and will stifle growth. Imagine where Kenya would be if there was no Lunatic Express?
josimar
#28 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 2:49:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2010
Posts: 242
Quote:
very interesting. Can anyone in the know please explain to me why the extremely slow movement to upgrading the Mombasa railway line? It seems every time someone mentions railway on this forum there is a giant sucking sound of silence.


The challenge in this CAPEX projects are power brokers with selfish/political interests, procurement bureaucracy (whenever a bidder makes an appeal the process has to stop), lack of finance from govt and of course the rail operator with the concession is not willing to pump in money for new freight and passenger wagons.
limanika
#29 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 3:21:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
FundamentAli wrote:
limanika wrote:
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.

Reli will take maendeleo there. Then Nairobians will be sainging Nairobi si Kenya. The potential of spurring growth for new Railway line is huge. Secondly, with projected growth for the region, the current infrastructure (port + railway) are grossly inadequate and will stifle growth. Imagine where Kenya would be if there was no Lunatic Express?


If you wanted to build a high rise flat for rental, and you have two plots one in Mandera the other in Nairobi, which would you build first? Nairobi of course. The analogy is the same with Lapsset, it is a question of priorities. There is need to take a hard look at facts and decide what to prioritise. Ethiopia has already gotten its major fundamentals right and is on a trajectory to take off. Electric power is 100% cheaper in Ethiopia than Kenya and cost of leasing (they do not sell) land to put up industries is affordable. The main question should be: How do we increase competitiveness of Kenyan manufactured goods? Then work backwards from there.
jamplu
#30 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 3:27:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2010
Posts: 939
Location: Nai
We need to get our priorities right in terms of our infrastructure and stop downplaying what our neighbors are doing.
murchr
#31 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 4:43:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
limanika wrote:
Read my post again. Nobody is objecting to Lamu port. This should have been built the day before yesterday. What we are saying is that the new Lamu port should be linked to existing Mombasa-Kampala line at Voi for instance. The Mombasa – Kampala existing line should be upgraded to standard gauge YESTERDAY. Cargo volumes to Southern Sudan, Moyale and Southern Ethiopia are not massive and can do with road for now. Railway links can be done in future after we have fixed what is urgent.
Many times when writing feasibility reports, basic fundamentals are ignored because corporations want to get approval of project, attract World Bank funding and make money quick. Indeed feasibility reports are usually tweaked to conceal weaknesses. For instance, the Ethiopia’s GIBE III feasibility report did not even mention Lake Turkana!


Quote:
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.


I don't remember seeing you proposing the linking of the 2 transport corridors together, you called for a DOWNGRADE. Anyway, again I see evidence of someone who just rushed here after reading some pieces of news and "scribbled" words.

Time and again its been proven that a transport corridor opens up development. If you look at the northern corridor (MSA-NRB-KMP) all the major towns came to be because of the railway/road. So the same will happen to the 2nd corridor (Lamu-Isiolo-Addis). You marvel at Ethiopia but they are doing the same thing....opening up regions that have 0 to low economic activity. On Elec...I see someone there lalamikaing that we are buying from Ethiopia...well, Ethiopia has what we dont have, the Blue Nile...It rains like crazy in their mountains, the building of the dam was a way of solving the flooding problem (Kenyans in the western region said they will not sell ancestral land for a dam) But we have geothermal power.

Lastly, let me post a photo of the two corridors. How they link etc...Again, a little research wont hurt. But I agree with you on one point its time we acted, lipeni ushuru kazi ianze.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
poundfoolish
#32 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 4:58:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
alma wrote:
very interesting. Can anyone in the know please explain to me why the extremely slow movement to upgrading the Mombasa railway line? It seems every time someone mentions railway on this forum there is a giant sucking sound of silence.


You build infrastructure to cater for national strategic interest just like the US Interstate highway system was primarily built to enable quick evacuation and dispersal of americans from the cities in case of a soviet attack. The mombasa railway line was built to enable the British control east africa all the way to eastern congo. Now in the 1960's to 1970's Uganda was more powerful military wise and unless you are an idiot you wouldn't upgrade that line you will be overrun within hours because 70% of the kenya population lives along the railway line. Upgrading that line is national suicide unless you can defend it. That's why lapsset is more strategically viable it can be easily protected in the northern plains and opens a whole part of the country.



I have to question the military mind of this argument... ati overran within hours?
this is very much Mobutu Seseseko thinking...
Is the economic gain incomparable to the military risk?
limanika
#33 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:06:08 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
murchr wrote:
limanika wrote:
Read my post again. Nobody is objecting to Lamu port. This should have been built the day before yesterday. What we are saying is that the new Lamu port should be linked to existing Mombasa-Kampala line at Voi for instance. The Mombasa – Kampala existing line should be upgraded to standard gauge YESTERDAY. Cargo volumes to Southern Sudan, Moyale and Southern Ethiopia are not massive and can do with road for now. Railway links can be done in future after we have fixed what is urgent.
Many times when writing feasibility reports, basic fundamentals are ignored because corporations want to get approval of project, attract World Bank funding and make money quick. Indeed feasibility reports are usually tweaked to conceal weaknesses. For instance, the Ethiopia’s GIBE III feasibility report did not even mention Lake Turkana!


Quote:
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.


I don't remember seeing you proposing the linking of the 2 transport corridors together, you called for a DOWNGRADE. Anyway, again I see evidence of someone who just rushed here after reading some pieces of news and "scribbled" words.

Time and again its been proven that a transport corridor opens up development. If you look at the northern corridor (MSA-NRB-KMP) all the major towns came to be because of the railway/road. So the same will happen to the 2nd corridor (Lamu-Isiolo-Addis). You marvel at Ethiopia but they are doing the same thing....opening up regions that have 0 to low economic activity. On Elec...I see someone there lalamikaing that we are buying from Ethiopia...well, Ethiopia has what we dont have, the Blue Nile...It rains like crazy in their mountains, the building of the dam was a way of solving the flooding problem (Kenyans in the western region said they will not sell ancestral land for a dam) But we have geothermal power.

Lastly, let me post a photo of the two corridors. How they link etc...Again, a little research wont hurt. But I agree with you on one point its time we acted, lipeni ushuru kazi ianze.


I agree the lunatic express contributed to growth of towns. But what was the main aim of building the lunatic express in the first place? To get a cheap means of transporting agricultural produce from the Pearl of Africa to the sea for export. The towns came as a by-product. You cannot build a new transport corridor from scratch using borrowed money and your main aim is to develop towns…Please also note that there are other dynamics that led to growth of the towns along the existing corridor, that’s why Nakuru / Eldoret are bigger than Kibwezi / Mtitio Adei, yet they are all on the corridor.
murchr
#34 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:13:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
limanika wrote:
murchr wrote:
limanika wrote:
Read my post again. Nobody is objecting to Lamu port. This should have been built the day before yesterday. What we are saying is that the new Lamu port should be linked to existing Mombasa-Kampala line at Voi for instance. The Mombasa – Kampala existing line should be upgraded to standard gauge YESTERDAY. Cargo volumes to Southern Sudan, Moyale and Southern Ethiopia are not massive and can do with road for now. Railway links can be done in future after we have fixed what is urgent.
Many times when writing feasibility reports, basic fundamentals are ignored because corporations want to get approval of project, attract World Bank funding and make money quick. Indeed feasibility reports are usually tweaked to conceal weaknesses. For instance, the Ethiopia’s GIBE III feasibility report did not even mention Lake Turkana!


Quote:
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.


I don't remember seeing you proposing the linking of the 2 transport corridors together, you called for a DOWNGRADE. Anyway, again I see evidence of someone who just rushed here after reading some pieces of news and "scribbled" words.

Time and again its been proven that a transport corridor opens up development. If you look at the northern corridor (MSA-NRB-KMP) all the major towns came to be because of the railway/road. So the same will happen to the 2nd corridor (Lamu-Isiolo-Addis). You marvel at Ethiopia but they are doing the same thing....opening up regions that have 0 to low economic activity. On Elec...I see someone there lalamikaing that we are buying from Ethiopia...well, Ethiopia has what we dont have, the Blue Nile...It rains like crazy in their mountains, the building of the dam was a way of solving the flooding problem (Kenyans in the western region said they will not sell ancestral land for a dam) But we have geothermal power.

Lastly, let me post a photo of the two corridors. How they link etc...Again, a little research wont hurt. But I agree with you on one point its time we acted, lipeni ushuru kazi ianze.


I agree the lunatic express contributed to growth of towns. But what was the main aim of building the lunatic express in the first place? To get a cheap means of transporting agricultural produce from the Pearl of Africa to the sea for export. The towns came as a by-product. You cannot build a new transport corridor from scratch using borrowed money and your main aim is to develop towns…Please also note that there are other dynamics that led to growth of the towns along the existing corridor, that’s why Nakuru / Eldoret are bigger than Kibwezi / Mtitio Adei, yet they are all on the corridor.


If in 2013 you dont know the reason for LAPSSET you cant be helped. You should start by getting out of that hole, do some research even here in wazua there's plenty ask yourself why Isiolo, Turkana and Moyale then we start talking. No one borrows to build? I wonder what would have happened in America is the Vanderbilt dint borrow he Rothschild....well....may be Anderson Cooper would answer that better.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
accelriskconsult
#35 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:31:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
limanika wrote:

.Ethiopia is constructing a high speed electric railway line originating from Djibouti, crossing through Ethiopia main land all the way to Juba in Southern Sudan. They have allowed a link to Moyale supposedly to serve Northern Kenya. Ethiopia and Southern Sudan may not therefore need Lapsset in the current form of the proposal.

.Tanzania is developing a massive port at Bagamoyo (to rival Lamu) and a standard gauge railway line from Dar to Kigali. Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern Congo might not need Mombasa any more

.During the CPA years (2005-2011) Al Bashir milked too much oil from southern Sudan fields. Consequently, Southern Sudan can only produce oil for maximum 10-15 years. The proposed Lapsset oil pipeline may therefore not be of much economic use.

The only hinterland that should really guide our planning is Kenya mainland itself, Uganda, and Southern Sudan to an extent.

With this in mind, if there is any facility to be fast-tracked by Kenya, it is the overhaul of existing archaic Mombasa – Kamapla railway and replacement with standard gauge type...not Lapsset.

As for Lapsset, the only facility that should go ahead for now is the Lamu Port. A standard gauge railway line should then be built linking Lamu to new Mombasa Kampala Standard gauge railway at Voi. Links from Mombasa- Kampala Standard gauge railway to Isiolo, Moyale, Juba from Kitale, etc can still be created in future depending on demand. As for the oil pipeline, it may be more cost effective to replace the existing one with modern pipeline that with reverse flow ability, or build two side by side. A link to Juba can be created from Eldoret.


You are wrong on many fronts.
1. Ethiopia is a partner in LAPSSET as is southern sudan. The policy wonks in government are not as dump as many of us in the private sector may want to make them to be. The Northern frontier is a large unexplored piece of land that may as well be opened up by several infrastucture projects. In fact, LAPSSET may not be big enough.

2. Ethiopia with its 80m people is landlocked and therefore needs connection to a port. Mombasa offers several advantages compared to Djibouti due to various factors linked to security. Lamu would enjoy similar advantages.

3. Construction of a new port in Dar is driven by many factors including mtwara gas. The same resources that are available in Dar are available in Kenya. However, Kenya could very easily built a vibrant financial services economy around its oil and gas centres (look to the UAE for inspiration). In this respect, Tanzania is light years behind due to lack of human capital. You can be sure that the South Africans are behind many of the initiatives that Tanzania will be undertaking and you may ask yourself why.

4. Think of a base where per capita GDP rises to USD 20,000 in 10 years (in Kenya and its neighbours) and you realise that the demand for goods and services means that the ports of Lamu, Dar, Mombasa will be inadequate.---America as we know it today was opened up by its railway network.

My view is that the rail network should be spread to all the county headquarters in parallel with highways. East and Central Africa should then be principally connected by high speed trains and highways autobahn style. There is no faster way of fostering regional trade.

Read this http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/13ojlfu/-/index.html


accelriskconsult
#36 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:39:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
limanika wrote:
FundamentAli wrote:
limanika wrote:
By creating a railway line passing thro’ and to open northern Kenya alone in itself will not jumpstart our economy. What are Kenya’s major towns and most productive areas? –Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyeri Eldoret, Kisumu, meru etc - 90% of GDP is generated in these areas, and they are the ones that require urgent rail upgrade. Then look at the map and consider relative location of Kampala and Juba and you realise you do not have to borrow 2 Trillions to build Lapsset right now. Northern Kenya can still be served very effectively by road for the next 10 years.

Reli will take maendeleo there. Then Nairobians will be sainging Nairobi si Kenya. The potential of spurring growth for new Railway line is huge. Secondly, with projected growth for the region, the current infrastructure (port + railway) are grossly inadequate and will stifle growth. Imagine where Kenya would be if there was no Lunatic Express?


If you wanted to build a high rise flat for rental, and you have two plots one in Mandera the other in Nairobi, which would you build first? Nairobi of course. The analogy is the same with Lapsset, it is a question of priorities. There is need to take a hard look at facts and decide what to prioritise. Ethiopia has already gotten its major fundamentals right and is on a trajectory to take off. Electric power is 100% cheaper in Ethiopia than Kenya and cost of leasing (they do not sell) land to put up industries is affordable. The main question should be: How do we increase competitiveness of Kenyan manufactured goods? Then work backwards from there.



Again I must say that your thinking is warped. The unexplored lands of North Eastern and North Rift have much more wealth buried in them than Nairobi can ever dream of.


And if you say that their is a road network to serve North Eastern, then I start doubting that you live in Kenya. Remember Tullow proclaiming that they would have started production this year if their were reliable roads to Mombasa?
wanyee
#37 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:55:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
Ultimately and eventually there has to be a link to enable mobilization (kinda like harambees) of capital funds that can be channeled to these kind of projects locally without relying on world beng ..IMF bla bla ...if Safaricon's turn-over is in billions from just talking and sms ..i believe larger E.Africa region population can mobilize Trillions in capital ...but How???Saccos? ..m-harambee?
limanika
#38 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:57:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
accelriskconsult wrote:
limanika wrote:

.Ethiopia is constructing a high speed electric railway line originating from Djibouti, crossing through Ethiopia main land all the way to Juba in Southern Sudan. They have allowed a link to Moyale supposedly to serve Northern Kenya. Ethiopia and Southern Sudan may not therefore need Lapsset in the current form of the proposal.

.Tanzania is developing a massive port at Bagamoyo (to rival Lamu) and a standard gauge railway line from Dar to Kigali. Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern Congo might not need Mombasa any more

.During the CPA years (2005-2011) Al Bashir milked too much oil from southern Sudan fields. Consequently, Southern Sudan can only produce oil for maximum 10-15 years. The proposed Lapsset oil pipeline may therefore not be of much economic use.

The only hinterland that should really guide our planning is Kenya mainland itself, Uganda, and Southern Sudan to an extent.

With this in mind, if there is any facility to be fast-tracked by Kenya, it is the overhaul of existing archaic Mombasa – Kamapla railway and replacement with standard gauge type...not Lapsset.

As for Lapsset, the only facility that should go ahead for now is the Lamu Port. A standard gauge railway line should then be built linking Lamu to new Mombasa Kampala Standard gauge railway at Voi. Links from Mombasa- Kampala Standard gauge railway to Isiolo, Moyale, Juba from Kitale, etc can still be created in future depending on demand. As for the oil pipeline, it may be more cost effective to replace the existing one with modern pipeline that with reverse flow ability, or build two side by side. A link to Juba can be created from Eldoret.


You are wrong on many fronts.
1. Ethiopia is a partner in LAPSSET as is southern sudan. The policy wonks in government are not as dump as many of us in the private sector may want to make them to be. The Northern frontier is a large unexplored piece of land that may as well be opened up by several infrastucture projects. In fact, LAPSSET may not be big enough.

2. Ethiopia with its 80m people is landlocked and therefore needs connection to a port. Mombasa offers several advantages compared to Djibouti due to various factors linked to security. Lamu would enjoy similar advantages.

3. Construction of a new port in Dar is driven by many factors including mtwara gas. The same resources that are available in Dar are available in Kenya. However, Kenya could very easily built a vibrant financial services economy around its oil and gas centres (look to the UAE for inspiration). In this respect, Tanzania is light years behind due to lack of human capital. You can be sure that the South Africans are behind many of the initiatives that Tanzania will be undertaking and you may ask yourself why.

4. Think of a base where per capita GDP rises to USD 20,000 in 10 years (in Kenya and its neighbours) and you realise that the demand for goods and services means that the ports of Lamu, Dar, Mombasa will be inadequate.---America as we know it today was opened up by its railway network.

My view is that the rail network should be spread to all the county headquarters in parallel with highways. East and Central Africa should then be principally connected by high speed trains and highways autobahn style. There is no faster way of fostering regional trade.

Read this http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/13ojlfu/-/index.html



.Ethiopia may be partner in Lapsset. But look at the facts..They are building an electric rail line (not standard gauge like lapsset) from Djibouti to Juba. To Ethiopia, Lapsset is good because it will serve as a second alternative / last resort – in case anything happens to the Djibouti line.
.Agreed, America was opened up by rail. But these rails were not built with borrowed money.
.Agreed, we need rail networks everywhere. But regional dynamics are changing by the day, you do not want to build Lapsset with borrowed capital and realize the other countries don’t need it as their first option. It is a question of priorities. Let us enhance existing facilities, then with improved production, revenue collection, etc use proceeds to build these other castles.
.On tullow.. we do not need new pipe line route. Build new one side by side the existing or upgrade to one with reverse flow.
accelriskconsult
#39 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 5:59:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
To those that think we do not have money, I think a scarcity mentality is the problem.

The government sanctioned all these projects (which were actually designed in 1972) because it has assessed the viability of its mineral resources and found that the project costs would be paid back quickly once those resources were exploited.

They did not plan in the dark. The projects are based on solid research for over 40 years
limanika
#40 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 6:20:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
The plans were developed 40years ago? Exactly that’s the point. Regional dynamics are changing so much by the day, many may not know that Kenya is no longer East Africa’s biggest economy in GDP terms. Ethiopia is. Sudan is richer than Kenya in GDP terms. Tanzania is catching up very fast. What were the facts 40years ago? The policy makers really need to think outside the box.
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