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Why LAPSSET should be downgraded
limanika
#1 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 5:55:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032

.Ethiopia is constructing a high speed electric railway line originating from Djibouti, crossing through Ethiopia main land all the way to Juba in Southern Sudan. They have allowed a link to Moyale supposedly to serve Northern Kenya. Ethiopia and Southern Sudan may not therefore need Lapsset in the current form of the proposal.

.Tanzania is developing a massive port at Bagamoyo (to rival Lamu) and a standard gauge railway line from Dar to Kigali. Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern Congo might not need Mombasa any more

.During the CPA years (2005-2011) Al Bashir milked too much oil from southern Sudan fields. Consequently, Southern Sudan can only produce oil for maximum 10-15 years. The proposed Lapsset oil pipeline may therefore not be of much economic use.

The only hinterland that should really guide our planning is Kenya mainland itself, Uganda, and Southern Sudan to an extent.

With this in mind, if there is any facility to be fast-tracked by Kenya, it is the overhaul of existing archaic Mombasa – Kamapla railway and replacement with standard gauge type...not Lapsset.

As for Lapsset, the only facility that should go ahead for now is the Lamu Port. A standard gauge railway line should then be built linking Lamu to new Mombasa Kampala Standard gauge railway at Voi. Links from Mombasa- Kampala Standard gauge railway to Isiolo, Moyale, Juba from Kitale, etc can still be created in future depending on demand. As for the oil pipeline, it may be more cost effective to replace the existing one with modern pipeline that with reverse flow ability, or build two side by side. A link to Juba can be created from Eldoret.
alma
#2 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 6:03:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
interesting.

would also like to hear murchr opinion about this.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
murchr
#3 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 6:12:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
alma wrote:
interesting.

would also like to hear murchr opinion about this.


Alma yaani unanitafuta tu....Why not link this post to the lapsset thread then we continue...i have alot to say
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
maka
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:19:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
limanika wrote:

.Ethiopia is constructing a high speed electric railway line originating from Djibouti, crossing through Ethiopia main land all the way to Juba in Southern Sudan. They have allowed a link to Moyale supposedly to serve Northern Kenya. Ethiopia and Southern Sudan may not therefore need Lapsset in the current form of the proposal.
.Tanzania is developing a massive port at Bagamoyo (to rival Lamu) and a standard gauge railway line from Dar to Kigali. Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern Congo might not need Mombasa any more

.During the CPA years (2005-2011) Al Bashir milked too much oil from southern Sudan fields. Consequently, Southern Sudan can only produce oil for maximum 10-15 years. The proposed Lapsset oil pipeline may therefore not be of much economic use.

The only hinterland that should really guide our planning is Kenya mainland itself, Uganda, and Southern Sudan to an extent.

With this in mind, if there is any facility to be fast-tracked by Kenya, it is the overhaul of existing archaic Mombasa – Kamapla railway and replacement with standard gauge type...not Lapsset.

As for Lapsset, the only facility that should go ahead for now is the Lamu Port. A standard gauge railway line should then be built linking Lamu to new Mombasa Kampala Standard gauge railway at Voi. Links from Mombasa- Kampala Standard gauge railway to Isiolo, Moyale, Juba from Kitale, etc can still be created in future depending on demand. As for the oil pipeline, it may be more cost effective to replace the existing one with modern pipeline that with reverse flow ability, or build two side by side. A link to Juba can be created from Eldoret.

very very interesting....
possunt quia posse videntur
Njung'e
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:20:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Limanika,

Applause Applause Applause That's interesting.....You've put a lot of thought on this.I am waiting to hear from someone who has contrary views.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
wanyee
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:34:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
Sham analysis..putting cart before the oxen
murchr
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:41:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
Can those saying that this is interesting substantiate because to me its absolutely nonsense. Do you stop living because your neighbor has said he is going to start living?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
tinker
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:47:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/15/2010
Posts: 454
Location: Nairobi
I concur with @limanika, having lived in both Ethiopia and S/Sudan, I must say that Habashis (Ethiopian) are serious in doing business with Juba. A drive from Gambella(Ethiopia) to Pagak & Kurmuk border towns say it all.
I don't know about the railway lines but their new road network to this border towns speaks volumes.
....He who began a good work in you will carry it on to completion..
alma
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:52:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
murchr what limanika is saying is we need to prioritize something and fast. We have had a lot of funfair and media publicity on these grand lapsetts and konza's.

As we were holding press conferences, our neighbours have been working.

Your analogy is assuming that we are living. We are still dreaming of starting to live. Our neighbours have started building. That will lead to the wazua threads of "my neighbour has bought a range rover"

I would be very interested to hear a different opinion. Including laptops and 6% economic growth as MP's increase the wage bill would also add spice to the topic.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
wanyee
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:56:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
check the feasibility report the neighbors are just as a by-the-way
alma
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:03:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
wanyee wrote:
check the feasibility report the neighbors are just as a by-the-way


wanyee, we aren't against the project. It's just that some of us easily swayed by people like limunika who write their thoughts in english we can understand.

Telling old men like me to read a feesiberety report is really unfair.

Saidia sisi jameni with your interpretation.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
murchr
#12 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:15:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
alma wrote:
murchr what limanika is saying is we need to prioritize something and fast. We have had a lot of funfair and media publicity on these grand lapsetts and konza's.

As we were holding press conferences, our neighbours have been working.

Your analogy is assuming that we are living. We are still dreaming of starting to live. Our neighbours have started building. That will lead to the wazua threads of "my neighbour has bought a range rover"

I would be very interested to hear a different opinion. Including laptops and 6% economic growth as MP's increase the wage bill would also add spice to the topic.


What @Limanika doesnt know is that the rail connecting djibouti and ssudan are an extension of Lappset so why shouldnt kenya build its own rail?

The defeatist attitude is starting to take over i see, just because TZ has stated they will build a port, baridi imeingia and yet they have not even started working on it on paper. The construction of the first 3 berths in Lamu has started should we stop building because our neighbors think they can also do it? Who is really dreaming?

I come from the school of thought where you aim at making your competition irrelevant. Let them go ahead, has Daresalaam port ever outshined Msa even with its inefficiencies?

Ethiopians are performers no doubt about it but those who think that the Lamu port only exists to serve Ethiopia and SSudan are completely wrong. Some homework, As an Ethiopian or S.sudanese aiming to export to China, which would be your ideal route....refer to your maps
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
josiah33
#13 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:23:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/27/2011
Posts: 1,777
murchr wrote:
alma wrote:
murchr what limanika is saying is we need to prioritize something and fast. We have had a lot of funfair and media publicity on these grand lapsetts and konza's.

As we were holding press conferences, our neighbours have been working.

Your analogy is assuming that we are living. We are still dreaming of starting to live. Our neighbours have started building. That will lead to the wazua threads of "my neighbour has bought a range rover"

I would be very interested to hear a different opinion. Including laptops and 6% economic growth as MP's increase the wage bill would also add spice to the topic.


What @Limanika doesnt know is that the rail connecting djibouti and ssudan are an extension of Lappset so why shouldnt kenya build its own rail?

The defeatist attitude is starting to take over i see, just because TZ has stated they will build a port, baridi imeingia and yet they have not even started working on it on paper. The construction of the first 3 berths in Lamu has started should we stop building because our neighbors think they can also do it? Who is really dreaming?

I come from the school of thought where you aim at making your competition irrelevant. Let them go ahead, has Daresalaam port ever outshined Msa even with its inefficiencies?

Ethiopians are performers no doubt about it but those who think that the Lamu port only exists to serve Ethiopia and SSudan are completely wrong. Some homework, As an Ethiopian or S.sudanese aiming to export to China, which would be your ideal route....refer to your maps

Well, they've just heard your opinion now....smile smile
wanyee
#14 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:31:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
The corridor also targets the larger hinterland ..Chad, CAR..even Mali..a surge in Intra-Africa trade is in the offing ..better rise to to the occassion
limanika
#15 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 11:55:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
murchr wrote:
alma wrote:
murchr what limanika is saying is we need to prioritize something and fast. We have had a lot of funfair and media publicity on these grand lapsetts and konza's.

As we were holding press conferences, our neighbours have been working.

Your analogy is assuming that we are living. We are still dreaming of starting to live. Our neighbours have started building. That will lead to the wazua threads of "my neighbour has bought a range rover"

I would be very interested to hear a different opinion. Including laptops and 6% economic growth as MP's increase the wage bill would also add spice to the topic.


What @Limanika doesnt know is that the rail connecting djibouti and ssudan are an extension of Lappset so why shouldnt kenya build its own rail?

The defeatist attitude is starting to take over i see, just because TZ has stated they will build a port, baridi imeingia and yet they have not even started working on it on paper. The construction of the first 3 berths in Lamu has started should we stop building because our neighbors think they can also do it? Who is really dreaming?

I come from the school of thought where you aim at making your competition irrelevant. Let them go ahead, has Daresalaam port ever outshined Msa even with its inefficiencies?

Ethiopians are performers no doubt about it but those who think that the Lamu port only exists to serve Ethiopia and SSudan are completely wrong. Some homework, As an Ethiopian or S.sudanese aiming to export to China, which would be your ideal route....refer to your maps

Read my post again. Nobody is objecting to Lamu port. This should have been built the day before yesterday. What we are saying is that the new Lamu port should be linked to existing Mombasa-Kampala line at Voi for instance. The Mombasa – Kampala existing line should be upgraded to standard gauge YESTERDAY. Cargo volumes to Southern Sudan, Moyale and Southern Ethiopia are not massive and can do with road for now. Railway links can be done in future after we have fixed what is urgent.
Many times when writing feasibility reports, basic fundamentals are ignored because corporations want to get approval of project, attract World Bank funding and make money quick. Indeed feasibility reports are usually tweaked to conceal weaknesses. For instance, the Ethiopia’s GIBE III feasibility report did not even mention Lake Turkana!
Njung'e
#16 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:17:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
I like your thinking.Prioritise doesn't mean do away with.....But again,i am seeing the same old gaament.Probably even worse than Baks as it seems they will spend the best of their time fighting off ICC......and you can't bet on anything else.KR is 50B in the red while RV concessioning meant,"Get yourself a giant blanket"....Bure Kabisa!
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
alma
#17 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:25:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
very interesting. Can anyone in the know please explain to me why the extremely slow movement to upgrading the Mombasa railway line? It seems every time someone mentions railway on this forum there is a giant sucking sound of silence.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
mkonomtupu
#18 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:43:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
alma wrote:
very interesting. Can anyone in the know please explain to me why the extremely slow movement to upgrading the Mombasa railway line? It seems every time someone mentions railway on this forum there is a giant sucking sound of silence.


You build infrastructure to cater for national strategic interest just like the US Interstate highway system was primarily built to enable quick evacuation and dispersal of americans from the cities in case of a soviet attack. The mombasa railway line was built to enable the British control east africa all the way to eastern congo. Now in the 1960's to 1970's Uganda was more powerful military wise and unless you are an idiot you wouldn't upgrade that line you will be overrun within hours because 70% of the kenya population lives along the railway line. Upgrading that line is national suicide unless you can defend it. That's why lapsset is more strategically viable it can be easily protected in the northern plains and opens a whole part of the country.

mibbz
#19 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:51:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Allow me to say,i have had the privilege of working and touring some of the marginal regions to be covered by the LAPPSET more specifically the arid and semi arid regions of this country. This project is more that the Ethiopia and Sudan aspect; Its about opening up the most marginalised parts of our country,like Kula Mawe in Isiolo county or Lokichar in Turkana county or even Kisima and Archers Post in Samburu county plus Sololo in Marsabit county. The people in these areas shall benefit from this project in terms of improved infrastructure and access to basics and i assure you Kenyas undiscovered mineral and oil wealth lies in these regions....with or without our neighburing countries we stand to benefit as a country much much much more
alma
#20 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 12:53:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
thanks mkono
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
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