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Kenya Economy Watch
obiero
#1921 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2018 10:02:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
Bamburi revenues to sink deeper https://www.businessdail...850334-d4d2h0/index.html

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#1922 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2018 10:15:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI
[quote=obiero]Bamburi revenues to sink deeper https://www.businessdail...50334-d4d2h0/index.html[/quote]

Na bado iko mtu denying that the kenyan economy is not in recession
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Fyatu
#1923 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 8:34:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
obiero wrote:


Not to be a party pooper, but i think this data is wrong. I am witnessing daily the amount of cement being consumed in my current remote location and can tell you for a fact that cement consumption is higher than the last 5 years.
Yellow cranes are dotted everywhere in this country even in erstwhile small towns.Some progressive governors(not those in central province) are building storeyed hospitals from ground up...stadiums etc. Muhindis in Westlands and the Chinese are using huge volumes of simiti etc..Clinker storage yards for imported clinker are being commisioned every other day in Mariakani(area za Mombasani).
There is even a new haulage(ROCHE)firm with hundreds and hundreds of brand new 23 tonne trucks specifically for the hot cement/clinker importation that is going on in this nation. Kenyan government itself has even proposed a storage yard for cement raw materials in ICD Nairobi.

Lamu...lets me just stop there
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
kayhara
#1924 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 8:42:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/5/2011
Posts: 1,059
Fyatu wrote:
obiero wrote:


Not to be a party pooper, but i think this data is wrong. I am witnessing daily the amount of cement being consumed in my current remote location and can tell you for a fact that cement consumption is higher than the last 5 years.
Yellow cranes are dotted everywhere in this country.Clinker storage yards for imported clinker are being commisioned every other day in Mariakani(area za Mombasani).
There is even a new haulage(ROCHE)firm with hundreds of brand new 23 tonne trucks specifically for the hot cement/clinker importation that is going on in this nation. Kenyan government itself has even proposed a storage yard for cement raw materials in ICD Nairobi.
Lamu...lets me just stop there

Your way of looking at it is wrong, for example there has been huge jams of late but Kenya Bureau of statistics show that overall consumption of fuel is down 25% since the tax increase, same way
some areas are experiencing a construction boom but counties are broke so no cabro roads no offices etc being built, your area might be doing fine but the country as a whole construction is on a decline.
The big projects you mention are past the cement (concrete stage eg the SGR pillars and T beams are already mostly cast, same for Lamu port, the rest of our projects are not cement intensive.
To Each His Own
Fyatu
#1925 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 9:27:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
kayhara wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
obiero wrote:


Not to be a party pooper, but i think this data is wrong. I am witnessing daily the amount of cement being consumed in my current remote location and can tell you for a fact that cement consumption is higher than the last 5 years.
Yellow cranes are dotted everywhere in this country.Clinker storage yards for imported clinker are being commisioned every other day in Mariakani(area za Mombasani).
There is even a new haulage(ROCHE)firm with hundreds of brand new 23 tonne trucks specifically for the hot cement/clinker importation that is going on in this nation. Kenyan government itself has even proposed a storage yard for cement raw materials in ICD Nairobi.
Lamu...lets me just stop there

Your way of looking at it is wrong, for example there has been huge jams of late but Kenya Bureau of statistics show that overall consumption of fuel is down 25% since the tax increase, same way
some areas are experiencing a construction boom but counties are broke so no cabro roads no offices etc being built, your area might be doing fine but the country as a whole construction is on a decline.
The big projects you mention are past the cement (concrete stage eg the SGR pillars and T beams are already mostly cast, same for Lamu port, the rest of our projects are not cement intensive.



I wish to disagree with you my brother especially on the point that major projects are past concrete stage and that counties are not building.For example, what is happening in Lamu is some sort of land reclamation where the Chinese are building berths inside the sea.Here, they are bringing-in tonnes and tonnes of rocks(what people call hardcore) in ferries(sea vessels) on a daily basis and pouring into the sea. Once the rocks are say a few meters above the highest tide level truckloads and truckloads of ready mix(bamburi heavy duty cement) are driven in.This is a daily affair. If you stand on Manda bay and view the upcoming port, you will notice that 10 lorries of ready mix are nothing...akin to a thigiriri(ant in Gikuyu).

Look at this image

LINK

Notice the ready mix lorries? What size is that lorry compared to the behemouth that is clearly 95% pure simiti? It looks like a thigiriri right? Now think of over 100 acres of reclaimed sea which is > 50% simiti

I wish there was a better picture for progress in amu.In the meantime you can indulge in this:

Link

and even this other one for better perspective

LINK

I wish someone else will bear me witness on developments and constructions going on in the counties. In conclusion, i advice serious wazua investors not to rely on lazy journalism by githeri media(sana sana Business daily and the sub-standard newspaper). Be driving around and observe. Befriend thos fundis,welders,truck drivers and even a random Chinese guy. You will not believe what you have been missing/overlooking
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
obiero
#1926 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 1:41:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
kayhara wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
obiero wrote:


Not to be a party pooper, but i think this data is wrong. I am witnessing daily the amount of cement being consumed in my current remote location and can tell you for a fact that cement consumption is higher than the last 5 years.
Yellow cranes are dotted everywhere in this country.Clinker storage yards for imported clinker are being commisioned every other day in Mariakani(area za Mombasani).
There is even a new haulage(ROCHE)firm with hundreds of brand new 23 tonne trucks specifically for the hot cement/clinker importation that is going on in this nation. Kenyan government itself has even proposed a storage yard for cement raw materials in ICD Nairobi.
Lamu...lets me just stop there

Your way of looking at it is wrong, for example there has been huge jams of late but Kenya Bureau of statistics show that overall consumption of fuel is down 25% since the tax increase, same way
some areas are experiencing a construction boom but counties are broke so no cabro roads no offices etc being built, your area might be doing fine but the country as a whole construction is on a decline.
The big projects you mention are past the cement (concrete stage eg the SGR pillars and T beams are already mostly cast, same for Lamu port, the rest of our projects are not cement intensive.



I wish to disagree with you my brother especially on the point that major projects are past concrete stage and that counties are not building.For example, what is happening in Lamu is some sort of land reclamation where the Chinese are building berths inside the sea.Here, they are bringing-in tonnes and tonnes of rocks(what people call hardcore) in ferries(sea vessels) on a daily basis and pouring into the sea. Once the rocks are say a few meters above the highest tide level truckloads and truckloads of ready mix(bamburi heavy duty cement) are driven in.This is a daily affair. If you stand on Manda bay and view the upcoming port, you will notice that 10 lorries of ready mix are nothing...akin to a thigiriri(ant in Gikuyu).

Look at this image

LINK

Notice the ready mix lorries? What size is that lorry compared to the behemouth that is clearly 95% pure simiti? It looks like a thigiriri right? Now think of over 100 acres of reclaimed sea which is > 50% simiti

I wish there was a better picture for progress in amu.In the meantime you can indulge in this:

Link

and even this other one for better perspective

LINK

I wish someone else will bear me witness on developments and constructions going on in the counties. In conclusion, i advice serious wazua investors not to rely on lazy journalism by githeri media(sana sana Business daily and the sub-standard newspaper). Be driving around and observe. Befriend thos fundis,welders,truck drivers and even a random Chinese guy. You will not believe what you have been missing/overlooking

What I learned in statistics is that data can never be disputed unless contrary data is available.. Not hearsay or emotions

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Fyatu
#1927 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 2:04:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
obiero wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
kayhara wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
obiero wrote:


Not to be a party pooper, but i think this data is wrong. I am witnessing daily the amount of cement being consumed in my current remote location and can tell you for a fact that cement consumption is higher than the last 5 years.
Yellow cranes are dotted everywhere in this country.Clinker storage yards for imported clinker are being commisioned every other day in Mariakani(area za Mombasani).
There is even a new haulage(ROCHE)firm with hundreds of brand new 23 tonne trucks specifically for the hot cement/clinker importation that is going on in this nation. Kenyan government itself has even proposed a storage yard for cement raw materials in ICD Nairobi.
Lamu...lets me just stop there

Your way of looking at it is wrong, for example there has been huge jams of late but Kenya Bureau of statistics show that overall consumption of fuel is down 25% since the tax increase, same way
some areas are experiencing a construction boom but counties are broke so no cabro roads no offices etc being built, your area might be doing fine but the country as a whole construction is on a decline.
The big projects you mention are past the cement (concrete stage eg the SGR pillars and T beams are already mostly cast, same for Lamu port, the rest of our projects are not cement intensive.



I wish to disagree with you my brother especially on the point that major projects are past concrete stage and that counties are not building.For example, what is happening in Lamu is some sort of land reclamation where the Chinese are building berths inside the sea.Here, they are bringing-in tonnes and tonnes of rocks(what people call hardcore) in ferries(sea vessels) on a daily basis and pouring into the sea. Once the rocks are say a few meters above the highest tide level truckloads and truckloads of ready mix(bamburi heavy duty cement) are driven in.This is a daily affair. If you stand on Manda bay and view the upcoming port, you will notice that 10 lorries of ready mix are nothing...akin to a thigiriri(ant in Gikuyu).

Look at this image

LINK

Notice the ready mix lorries? What size is that lorry compared to the behemouth that is clearly 95% pure simiti? It looks like a thigiriri right? Now think of over 100 acres of reclaimed sea which is > 50% simiti

I wish there was a better picture for progress in amu.In the meantime you can indulge in this:

Link

and even this other one for better perspective

LINK

I wish someone else will bear me witness on developments and constructions going on in the counties. In conclusion, i advice serious wazua investors not to rely on lazy journalism by githeri media(sana sana Business daily and the sub-standard newspaper). Be driving around and observe. Befriend thos fundis,welders,truck drivers and even a random Chinese guy. You will not believe what you have been missing/overlooking

What I learned in statistics is that data can never be disputed unless contrary data is available.. Not hearsay or emotions


Sawa boss. Hiyo data ya armchair statisticians mimi hapana tambua
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
FRM2011
#1928 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 2:19:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,459
[quote=obiero]Bamburi revenues to sink deeper https://www.businessdail...50334-d4d2h0/index.html[/quote]


Removing the stupid interest capping law would help the ssituation but we love politics too much and right now we can blame banks for our misdeeds.
obiero
#1929 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 6:56:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
FRM2011 wrote:
obiero wrote:



Removing the stupid interest capping law would help the ssituation but we love politics too much and right now we can blame banks for our misdeeds.

Right now it's too late. With inflation approaching 6%, cost of living and mad layoffs.. No ability will be present among the population to purchase or build houses.. Unless the affordable housing becomes reality via GoK subsidy, a person earning less than KES 110,000 monthly will struggle to get a mortgage at any Kenyan bank

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
jgithige
#1930 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 8:57:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/10/2014
Posts: 145
Location: Nairobi
FRM2011 wrote:
[quote=obiero]Bamburi revenues to sink deeper https://www.businessdail...50334-d4d2h0/index.html[/quote]


Removing the stupid interest capping law would help the ssituation but we love politics too much and right now we can blame banks for our misdeeds.


Bamburi should wake up and smell the coffee. Wanjiku is busy constructing using Simba and Mombasa cement.
"Blowing out someone else candle won't make yours shine brighter"-Anonymous
obiero
#1931 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 9:11:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
jgithige wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:
[quote=obiero]Bamburi revenues to sink deeper https://www.businessdail...50334-d4d2h0/index.html[/quote]


Removing the stupid interest capping law would help the ssituation but we love politics too much and right now we can blame banks for our misdeeds.


Bamburi should wake up and smell the coffee. Wanjiku is busy constructing using Simba and Mombasa cement.

The report says cement consumption as a whole went down. Bamburi is still leading among the pack, but treading in dangerous waters

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Wororo
#1932 Posted : Wednesday, November 14, 2018 9:50:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 207
COST OF petrol up Sh2.38 to Sh118.11, diesel up Sh3.11 to Sh112.83 while kerosene to cost Sh2.99 more per litre in Nairobi in latest ERC review.

Fuel prices link...
KulaRaha
#1933 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 7:54:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
KES depreciation is gonna hurt everyone...given how we are reliant on imports.

Also, I think our foreign debt has gone up by around 50B from this move to 102.80.

Kumira kumira....
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Angelica _ann
#1934 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 8:09:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
KulaRaha wrote:
KES depreciation is gonna hurt everyone...given how we are reliant on imports.

Also, I think our foreign debt has gone up by around 50B from this move to 102.80.

Kumira kumira....


No more kumira kumira, we are one nation Kenya working towards the Big 4 agenda for PORK UMK to secure a legacy. Economy is also red hot growing at +5% qoq. Oil iko, sgr iko, galana kulalu iko, LTWP coming online soon etc.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
KulaRaha
#1935 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 8:29:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Angelica _ann wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
KES depreciation is gonna hurt everyone...given how we are reliant on imports.

Also, I think our foreign debt has gone up by around 50B from this move to 102.80.

Kumira kumira....


No more kumira kumira, we are one nation Kenya working towards the Big 4 agenda for PORK UMK to secure a legacy. Economy is also red hot growing at +5% qoq. Oil iko, sgr iko, galana kulalu iko, LTWP coming online soon etc.


I wouldnt support the big faux too loudly publicly, lest you get branded an idiot when the whole thing unravels....smile smile smile smile smile
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Ericsson
#1936 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 8:50:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI
KulaRaha wrote:
KES depreciation is gonna hurt everyone...given how we are reliant on imports.

Also, I think our foreign debt has gone up by around 50B from this move to 102.80.

Kumira kumira....


We are now at 103
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
MugundaMan
#1937 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 8:56:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Kenyan economy red hawtt! In just a weeks's time:

Big four kicks off with a huge 519b boost!
https://www.capitalfm.co...ort-of-big-four-agenda/

Loyangalani on tap!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvAKNLziKZc

and Kalonzo handshaked!

In an economy growing at 6.3% this quarter and picking pace:
https://www.theeastafric...3356-t3y24gz/index.html

We are on a roll, friends. Naysayers must be VERY upset! Laughing out loudly God bless Kenya!
MugundaMan
#1938 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 8:59:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
KulaRaha wrote:
KES depreciation is gonna hurt everyone...given how we are reliant on imports.

Also, I think our foreign debt has gone up by around 50B from this move to 102.80.

Kumira kumira....


This is peni mbili thinking Laughing out loudly
Pray tell, will KES "depreciation" affect exporters negatively? smile This will actual HELP the economy by making consumer imports that do not add to the productive capacity of the country (eg luxury cars) more expensive.
Swenani
#1939 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 10:42:36 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,236
Location: Vacuum
MugundaMan wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
KES depreciation is gonna hurt everyone...given how we are reliant on imports.

Also, I think our foreign debt has gone up by around 50B from this move to 102.80.

Kumira kumira....


This is peni mbili thinking Laughing out loudly
Pray tell, will KES "depreciation" affect exporters negatively? smile This will actual HELP the economy by making consumer imports that do not add to the productive capacity of the country (eg luxury cars) more expensive.

If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
julianaray
#1940 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 12:35:26 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 11/7/2018
Posts: 2
Location: Tokyo
Based on World Bank In Kenya:

Kenya has made significant political, structural and economic reforms that have largely driven sustained economic growth, social development and political gains over the past decade. However, its key development challenges still include poverty, inequality, climate change and the vulnerability of the economy to internal and external shocks.

Kenya’s recent political reform stemmed from the passage of a new constitution in 2010 that introduced a bicameral legislative house, devolved county government, a constitutionally tenured Judiciary and electoral body. The first election was in 2013. The August 8, 2017 presidential elections were nullified on September 1, 2017 by the Supreme Court, and a new presidential election is scheduled for October 17, 2017.

Devolution remains the biggest gain from the August 2010 constitution, which ushered in a new political and economic governance system. It is transformative and has strengthened accountability and public service delivery at local levels.

While economic activity faltered following the 2008 global economic recession, growth resumed in the last three years reaching 5.8% in 2016 placing Kenya as one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. The economic expansion has been boosted by a stable macroeconomic environment, low oil prices, rebound in tourism, strong remittance inflows and a government led infrastructure development initiative.

Looking ahead, near-term GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 5.5% in 2017 because of ongoing drought, weak credit growth, security concerns and the pick-up in oil prices. Medium-term GDP growth should rebound to 5.8% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019 respectively dependent on completion of ongoing infrastructure projects, resolution of slow credit growth, strengthening of the global economy and tourism.

In the long-term, adoption of prudent macroeconomic policies will help safeguard Kenya’s robust economic performance. This includes implementation of fiscal and monetary prudence and lowering deficit down to 4.3% by FY19/20 as per the Medium Term Fiscal Framework. The fiscal consolidation needs to avoid compromising public investments in critical infrastructure key to unlocking the economy’s productive capacity.

In addition to aligning fostering economic development through the country’s development agenda to the long-term development plan; Vision 2030, the President in December outlined the “Big Four” development priority areas for his final term as President. The Big Four will prioritize manufacturing, universal healthcare, affordable housing and food security. Social Development

Kenya has met some Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) targets, including reduced child mortality, near universal primary school enrolment, and narrowed gender gaps in education. Interventions and increased spending on health and education are paying dividends. While the healthcare system has faced challenges recently, devolved health care and free maternal health care at all public health facilities will improve health care outcomes and develop a more equitable health care system.

Kenya has the potential to be one of Africa’s success stories from its growing youthful population, a dynamic private sector, highly skilled workforce, improved infrastructure, a new constitution, and its pivotal role in East Africa. Addressing the challenges of poverty, inequality, governance, the skills gap between market requirements and the education curriculum, climate change, low investment and low firm productivity to achieve rapid, sustained growth rates that will transform lives of ordinary citizens, will be a major goal for Kenya.
In the end some of your weakness become your current greatest strength.
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