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Kenya Economy Watch
MugundaMan
#2261 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 9:31:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Laughing out loudly

Dont run like a coward bradza.
- you didnt have to say it, you have implied that you HATE chinese imports.
- oooo imports are from china
- oooo no local companies because of Chinese companies
- oooo the import export ratio favours China,


My braddah we CANNOT develop without China's expertise and imports.
Look at your friend Ndii. Went alllllll the way to Oxford and instead of bringing home technology to build factories and cars from Britain he came back with miwani ya kamba tu na stori mingi kwa gazeti worth zero.

BURE GHABISA!!!!
Horton
#2262 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 10:30:24 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
MugundaMan wrote:
Laughing out loudly

Dont run like a coward bradza.
- you didnt have to say it, you have implied that you HATE chinese imports.
- oooo imports are from china
- oooo no local companies because of Chinese companies
- oooo the import export ratio favours China,


My braddah we CANNOT develop without China's expertise and imports.
Look at your friend Ndii. Went alllllll the way to Oxford and instead of bringing home technology to build factories and cars from Britain he came back with miwani ya kamba tu na stori mingi kwa gazeti worth zero.

BURE GHABISA!!!!


This chap reminds me of QW
obiero
#2263 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 10:56:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
Horton wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
Laughing out loudly

Dont run like a coward bradza.
- you didnt have to say it, you have implied that you HATE chinese imports.
- oooo imports are from china
- oooo no local companies because of Chinese companies
- oooo the import export ratio favours China,


My braddah we CANNOT develop without China's expertise and imports.
Look at your friend Ndii. Went alllllll the way to Oxford and instead of bringing home technology to build factories and cars from Britain he came back with miwani ya kamba tu na stori mingi kwa gazeti worth zero.

BURE GHABISA!!!!


This chap reminds me of QW

It is QW for sure

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Conquestador
#2264 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 11:21:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 110
Location: Nairobi
MugundaMan wrote:
Conquestador wrote:


You are the best. Let me leave this link here to add spice to your desertations.
https://youtu.be/f5SE47Xjx2Q

When will you open a satire school? I will be your 1st student.



What planet are you living on my mbuloddah?
This is a thread about the RED HAWTT Kenyan economy. Dancing
With an annual housing deficit of 250k homes, surely you must be hallucinating to think that scenario in China is replicating itself in Kenya, no?


It is red hot chinese economy, not Kenyan. Having heated their GDP conveyor belt through needless construction, they now exporting it and finding partaking fools; I do not want to say like you because I still believe yours is all satire.

Buying china cement in Kitengela is the clearest sign yet of a dead kenyan economy and where were you taught that meeting housing deficit using imported everything including labor is an economic force multiplier? 85% of all construction in Kenya (in value terms) is been undertaken by foreign firms.

In any case the so called housing deficit being preached by greedy politicians and real estate cons is a fallacy. We left houses in shags to bats and spiders chasing after the urban lifestyles; then you gave us kitengela?


MugundaMan
#2265 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 12:07:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Conquestador,
You are the MOST ECONOMICALLY ILLITERATE person on Wazoo. Were you a Being Around in campo?
cordially,
MM
Horton
#2266 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 7:35:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi

For a difference of opinion is this all really necessary? 🤦🏽‍♂️
MugundaMan
#2267 Posted : Sunday, September 29, 2019 8:48:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Horton wrote:

For a difference of opinion is this all really necessary? 🤦🏽‍♂️


But if the tunjamaa cannot even tell the difference between supply and demand or an import and and export let alone higher principles, yet wants to have a debate on the economics of the same, what other response is befitting? Laughing out loudly
The most annoying thing on earth is an illiterate trying to debate on matters far beyond his or her ken. Economy si mandazi wala mchuzi ya mbuzi that you just teremsha unthinkingly praaa. Give us sensible people with at least a BASIC grasp of economics who we can debate with. Or send them back to school. Hata VVS is not as ignorant as this chap!
young
#2268 Posted : Monday, September 30, 2019 1:00:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,036
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Horton wrote:

For a difference of opinion is this all really necessary? 🤦🏽‍♂️


I concur very unnecessary , terrible waste of time and energy.

Differences in opinion should be respected.

Even with facts nobody can be convinced by force or calling derogatory names as facts explained can either be accepted or rejected may be with contrary opinions (whether valid or invalid, accepted or unaccepted ) .

Folks exhibit maturity and mutual respect to each other.

We should respect our differences in opinions , decisions and choices.
This ideal profits a lot and prevent us from raising our adrenalin level unnecessarily on non trivial issues .
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Ericsson
#2269 Posted : Monday, September 30, 2019 1:57:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI


very uncalled for MugundaMan.
Respect other people's opinions and avoid derogatory and abusive names and statements
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
nairobby
#2270 Posted : Monday, September 30, 2019 9:44:30 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/18/2019
Posts: 185
Location: kenya
MugundaMan wrote:
vvs wrote:

Let's start with #1
Ndii does say in an interview that SGR has missed on both the financial and economic fronts.
Financial means turning a profit. It's still Year 2 so it may be early to hope for a profit but it does not seem optimistic. I hope we can see some audited statements soon.

In 2014, he suggested we choose the much cheaper option of rehabilitating the NGR.

Jobs - The 40k jobs were a short-term boost. How many of those involved skills other than mtu-ya-mkono?
The question is how many permanent jobs did the SGR create?
Then ask how many NET permanent jobs did the SGR create?
Forcing freight from road transport and NGR also caused a loss of jobs in those sectors/entities/firms.

IMHO, a dual road combined with an upgraded NGR would have been a better option for us.

I have no info on Uhuru Highway, Sasamua Dam, etc. All projects should have a thorough cost-benefit analysis done. Mistakes will happen but IMHO the unviability of the SGR wasn't a mistake but deliberate.

2) Debt by itself is neither bad nor good. What can be problematic is debt that is unsustainable.
Debt service for a public project that does not cover its financial or economic cost means it will be funded from the public purse which means something else gets under-funded be it education or a road.

Was building the SGR (vs a dual highway + NGR) the best course of action for Kenya?
IMHO, no.

3) What happens in other countries should be looked at but merely as a guide. Rather than the USA, I prefer we look at Singapore or other Asian countries which were also "poor" in the 60s.

Regarding KCB opening a branch in the US. It's an economic decision. Unless KCB can attract large numbers of the diaspora, a US branch/subsidiary may not make sense given the level of competition.
Mizuho/Sumitomo/MFUG from Japan catering to Japanese businesses eg Toyota, Honda, etc
Societe General/Natixis/Credit Agricole to the French
Bank Leumi of Israel has a presence in the USA but there's a large Israeli/Jewish population it can tap into.
State Bank of India has a presence catering to the Indian diaspora and businesses.

https://www.baruch.cuny....reignbanks-domestic.htm

"Foreign banking institutions, which include foreign bank branches, agencies, and U.S.-chartered bank subsidiaries, hold approximately one-fourth of all commercial banking assets in the United States." https://www.newyorkfed.o...fed/fedpoint/fed26.html

As for what other countries subsidize or not is generally not relevant to this discussion. If you were comparing KQ to Air Tanzania or Ethihad or Ethiopia then we could discuss subsidies.

This is not a discussion about capitalism or socialism either. Even if it was, it would be prudent for any economy to get the best (financial, economic, social) value for any project.

OBOR - This is a China led project primarily designed to benefit them. If others benefit then so be it but that's not the primary aim.

Finally, Kisangani. You said the SGR will reach Kisangani in 10 years so I am holding you to it. Laughing out loudly

As I said, I am more interested in discussing facts and having a mature discussion that enlightens all that participate in it.



Ha ha ha ha ha, are these your SERIOUS responsesLaughing out loudly ?

My fren you are very funny!
1. You STILL do no seem to have wrapped your mind around what public goods are (Economics 101)
2. You seem not to understand very basic economic concepts like spillover costs and spillover benefits, the multiplier effect and why infra led growth - the Chinese model- has lifted well over 500 million people out of poverty in China at the fastest rate of any economy in human history. And why said model is working beautifully for Africa as our GDP growth rates have shown.
3. You still do not understand how the US economy and banking system works. Ati KCB is not in NYC because there are no customers there? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly . My friend there are over 1 m Kenyans in USA!! Where do you think our largest source of forex comes from? Ati pointing to obscure tiny shell banks and b2b banks as examples..LOL!TELL US how many ORDINARAY AMERICANS ..over 300 milllion of them ..bank with any of those banks. The US banking system is as good as a CLOSED MONOPOLY so please do not tell us GARBAGE about SGR should not have rules about cargo deliveries!

This the problem with debating someone with little formal economics training. Those are the fellows Oxford Ndii loves to be on his bandwagon. So he can bamboozle them.with laughable falsities ati SGR must turn a a cash profit in our lifetime, without asking for the same from public goods like Thika Superhighway, Nyali Bridge and Outer ring road Laughing out loudly


7.1.2 Costs - The costs taken into account are the Road Agency costs in the “with” and
“without” project scenarios which include both the cost of maintenance and the investment
costs of upgrading the project road to a higher standard facility. These costs include the base
cost for civil works plus the physical contingencies, consulting services for supervision and
project audit. The financial contingencies are not taken into account, as they do not constitute
consumption of economic resources. The economic investment cost has been estimated at
KES 11.028 billion and would be disbursed over three years from 2008 to 2010. Residual value
at the end of project life has been assumed at about 10% of original economic investment cost.
7.1.3 Benefits - The main project benefits in the economic evaluation include vehicle
operating cost savings, travel time savings for passenger and cargo, and road maintenance
savings. Accident costs savings have not been quantified due to lack of valuation parameters
for accidents. Nevertheless, accident cost savings would be substantial given current high
accident and fatality rates. Savings in motorized vehicle operating cost over the project’s
operating life of 2011 to 2030 at 2007 prices have been estimated at KES 27.055 billion while
the savings in passenger and cargo travel time costs have been estimated at KES 57.571
billion. About 84 percent of the project benefit is due to time savings for passengers and cargo
while only 16 percent of the benefits are due to savings in vehicle operating costs.
7.1.4 Results of Cost-Benefit Analysis - The results of the economic evaluation using the
HDM-IV has resulted in an Economic Internal Rate of Return of 30.4% which is higher than the
current opportunity cost of capital in Kenya of 12.0%, agreed between Government and Kenyan
Development Partners for admission of projects in the Road Sector Investment Program
currently under finalization. Project investment worth in the base case scenario of NPV at KES
18.670 billion also confirms the viability of the intervention in the project (see Annex 4).

Cost benefit analysis in the appraisal report for Thika Superhighway. Where is SGR's?

https://www.afdb.org/fil..._-_Appraisal_Report.PDF
MugundaMan
#2271 Posted : Monday, September 30, 2019 10:12:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Nairobby,
Oxford Ndii does not want to hear such long stories braddah!! He wants to see a CASH PROFIT from TICKET SALES AND CARGO/FREIGHT!
How much has Thika Superhighway generated in CASH SALES!!!
nairobby
#2272 Posted : Monday, September 30, 2019 10:59:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/18/2019
Posts: 185
Location: kenya
MugundaMan wrote:
Nairobby,
Oxford Ndii does not want to hear such long stories braddah!! He wants to see a CASH PROFIT from TICKET SALES AND CARGO/FREIGHT!
How much has Thika Superhighway generated in CASH SALES!!!


Ndii says that because that is how the project was sold, providing an excerpt from the feasibility study which has somehow never been made public: https://twitter.com/Davi...011876204457218048?s=20

If the project was sold to us on it's high profitability why are we still subsidising it? The operation can't even sustain itself if not for forcing importers to use it, yet we spent hundreds of billions on itBrick wall

MugundaMan
#2273 Posted : Monday, September 30, 2019 12:16:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
nairobby wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
Nairobby,
Oxford Ndii does not want to hear such long stories braddah!! He wants to see a CASH PROFIT from TICKET SALES AND CARGO/FREIGHT!
How much has Thika Superhighway generated in CASH SALES!!!


Ndii says that because that is how the project was sold, providing an excerpt from the feasibility study which has somehow never been made public: https://twitter.com/Davi...011876204457218048?s=20

If the project was sold to us on it's high profitability why are we still subsidising it? The operation can't even sustain itself if not for forcing importers to use it, yet we spent hundreds of billions on itBrick wall



Again I repeat. Politicians can promise anything, even laptops that fly you to the moon. If Oxford Ndii has an issue with Jubilee, let him not bring economic conmanship into his arguments to fool the people that public goods are supposed to turn a cash profit. If we were to calculate the economywide spillover benefits of SGR it would be in the trillions of shillings, much like Thika Superhighway has completely transformed that corridor yet has not collected ONE SINGLE COIN in cash income.











We can go on and on and on!


pops
#2274 Posted : Thursday, October 03, 2019 7:28:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/13/2006
Posts: 122
What rubbish, you just have to look around to judge how well this economy of ours is doing:
- there is growing unemployment, firms are shutting shop to unconducive government policies.
- people are dying of hunger in at least 10 of our counties, due to poor planning and leaving strategic agriculture sectors to be run by cartels
- the KRA is struggling to raise collections and is having to harass Wanjiku to raise money to pay for loans and wasteful government expenditure
- there is nothing to show for the immense amounts of cash spent on major infrastructure i.e. konza, galana, lamu.
- the interest rate cap is sucking capital from the vital sme sector so they are unable to grow

I'm just a layman, but I am very worried. I cannot see the supposed economic growth translating into prosperity for me. perhaps its only reserved for the small clique who rule this country.
Conquestador
#2275 Posted : Friday, October 04, 2019 1:14:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 110
Location: Nairobi
MugundaMan wrote:
Conquestador,
You are the MOST ECONOMICALLY ILLITERATE person on Wazoo.

...can only be the 2nd most, at least.

Were you a Being Around in campo? No. doctorate in computer science.

cordially,
MM



kenyan2019
#2276 Posted : Saturday, October 05, 2019 9:56:53 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2018
Posts: 94
World Bank report calls for more transparency over Kenyan debt https://www.businessdail...98624-ni5lbt/index.html via @BD_Africa
Lolest!
#2277 Posted : Saturday, October 05, 2019 3:31:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
obiero wrote:
Horton wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
Laughing out loudly

Dont run like a coward bradza.
- you didnt have to say it, you have implied that you HATE chinese imports.
- oooo imports are from china
- oooo no local companies because of Chinese companies
- oooo the import export ratio favours China,


My braddah we CANNOT develop without China's expertise and imports.
Look at your friend Ndii. Went alllllll the way to Oxford and instead of bringing home technology to build factories and cars from Britain he came back with miwani ya kamba tu na stori mingi kwa gazeti worth zero.

BURE GHABISA!!!!


This chap reminds me of QW

It is QW for sure

Qw didn't have proper punctuation
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
obiero
#2278 Posted : Sunday, October 06, 2019 6:57:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
Let me leave this here https://www.capitalfm.co...artening-end-to-tax-row/

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Balaa
#2279 Posted : Sunday, October 06, 2019 7:53:36 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2018
Posts: 175
Location: Kinshasa
[quote=obiero]Let me leave this here https://www.capitalfm.co...rtening-end-to-tax-row/[/quote]

Sad I keep saying Gok/KRA is continually biting the hand that feeds them. They forget that as investors we don't owe the government a living and are looking for the best return on investment. It's Gok's business to create a conducive business environment. Investors ain't charity missionaries. They(Gok) just don't get it, do they?
If it don't make dollars, it don't make sense
Extraterrestrial
#2280 Posted : Monday, October 07, 2019 8:56:24 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 173
Location: Mars
The Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI jumped to 54.1 in September 2019 from 52.9 in the previous month, signalling a solid improvement in the health of the Kenyan private sector. Sales growth accelerated to a 13-month high, leading firms to expand their output at a quicker pace. Employment also increased, as firms remained highly optimistic for future activity. At the same time, cost pressures weakened to a near two-year low, while output price inflation also eased.

https://tradingeconomics.../kenya/manufacturing-pmi
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