[quote=obiero]Palipo na moshi http://www.businessdaily...10732-46gos4/index.html[/quote]


Let panic reign so that we buy cheap.The foreigners will definitely sell in huge volumes.And i will be happy to buy cheap.

Assuming the theory that price reflects information available: Then is the current KCB price fully reflecting?
1) Effects from possible purchase of NBK
2) Effects of Interest rate capping
3) Effects of poor first half results
4) Election jitters

Seems to me that Simba is riding these effects well...so far.

[quote=obiero]Palipo na moshi http://www.businessdaily...10732-46gos4/index.html[/quote]

For now nothing can happen till after elections

im also wondering why election jitters have refused to affect the market.I was waiting to pounce but have not succeeded yet.It could be a ploy by market makers.Lets see how the market behaves after election assuming its settled peacefully.

Going back,NSE started in 1954.Kenya attained independence in 1963.There were general elections in 1962,1969,1974,1979,1983,1988,1992,1997,2002,2007,2013.
How did NSE performed shortly before and after those elections?
Out of those elections,its only 2007 that was hit with violence.
This site was probably created in 2005 or 2006? as stocks kenya? if its so,then we might have guys with clues on what happened shortly before and after 2007 and 2013.
@Vvs,@pesa nane,@obiero,@ericson might have some insight and will they probably share with the johnnie come lately like us?
According to my little knowledge gathered here,my opinion is that this thing has been caused by market makers.Because everybody was expecting the price to fall,they decided to hoodwink everyone so that they will reap shortly after elections.They decided to work the price up so that shortly after elections they sell.

I did some research and NSE is quite a barometer of the social mood. The NSE index was calculated from 1966 starting at 100

From 1956-1961 share prices collapsed losing half their value. Reason political change of regime.

From 1966-1979 the NSE did not perform well. It was largely flat. Very little trading activity took place especially from 1974-1979.
Reason: 1. To stop capital flight the market was controlled by Capital Issues Committee a bunch of bureaucrats that approved any listings.
2.Capital gains tax killed the market very little trading took place.
3. Change of political regime saw the index end on a high note of 416 in 1979

From 1980-1984 impact of high oil prices saw index fall to 349 in 1983. Market was flat in 1984 moving only 383 to 386 due to impact of drought, capital gains

From 1985 there were reforms which abolished the Capital Issues Committee(these idiots took 6 years to approve BBK IPO), capital gains were removed.

In 1988 the index moved from 732-856. Voter apathy

Bull run in 1990-91

In 1992 the index rallied from 954-1246 in anticipation of regime change.The index collapsed to 1165 in January 1993 before starting a parabolic climb to 5400 Reasons 1. the runaway inflation run.
2. Loosening of exchange controls coming of foreign investors
3. Economic reforms SAPS privatization and liberalization

In 1997 the index moved from 3476-3115. The index went down all the way to almost 1000 in August 2002
-Reasons slow-down in economic reforms, constitutional reforms, succession politics

In 2003 index took off after regime change to 6000 before retreating shortly before the 2007 polls. In 2008 the index collapsed due to PEV and GFC crisis. At some point during PEV trading was halted.

I hope that helps.

H1 forecast by the exchange bar already released www.winda.co.ke

When the interest rates cap law is repealed or reviewed share price shouldn't be trading at less than 80.

@wukan and @ebenyo...thanks

@Obiero Winda.co.ke is a great idea, but as with everything, presentation is key. I am offering to style your site and boost user experience thus enabling winda.co.ke to make a lasting impression. I am representing http://distinctive.co.ke/. Talk to us. Should you decide to, say that Moses referred you.