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Madness at the NSE
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Madness at the moment. KCB and Equity printing 40+ and doing +20% gains in a week as the economy limps  There's lot of liquidity around. My bank reduced my fixed depo rate to 6.5%. It made no sense better to take risk on 10% yield on KCB and some capital gains. There will tears at some point but for now madness is back
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,636 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Madness at the moment. KCB and Equity printing 40+ and doing +20% gains in a week as the economy limps There's lot of liquidity around. My bank reduced my fixed depo rate to 6.5%. It made no sense better to take risk on 10% yield on KCB and some capital gains. There will tears at some point but for now madness is back It won't end well for some people Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,636 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Madness at the moment. KCB and Equity printing 40+ and doing +20% gains in a week as the economy limps There's lot of liquidity around. My bank reduced my fixed depo rate to 6.5%. It made no sense better to take risk on 10% yield on KCB and some capital gains. There will tears at some point but for now madness is back Turnover in equity bank is nearly ksh.500mn BAT is doing a turnover of ksh.384mn Total turnover today in the NSE today might hit a bn shillings Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,472 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Madness at the moment. KCB and Equity printing 40+ and doing +20% gains in a week as the economy limps There's lot of liquidity around. My bank reduced my fixed depo rate to 6.5%. It made no sense better to take risk on 10% yield on KCB and some capital gains. There will tears at some point but for now madness is back Turnover in equity bank is nearly ksh.500mn BAT is doing a turnover of ksh.384mn Total turnover today in the NSE today might hit a bn shillings @wukan interest rate for a FIXED deposit can be reduced prior to maturity?
HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Madness at the moment. KCB and Equity printing 40+ and doing +20% gains in a week as the economy limps There's lot of liquidity around. My bank reduced my fixed depo rate to 6.5%. It made no sense better to take risk on 10% yield on KCB and some capital gains. There will tears at some point but for now madness is back Turnover in equity bank is nearly ksh.500mn BAT is doing a turnover of ksh.384mn Total turnover today in the NSE today might hit a bn shillings @wukan interest rate for a FIXED deposit can be reduced prior to maturity? @obiero it was renewal after maturity.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,049 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Madness at the moment. KCB and Equity printing 40+ and doing +20% gains in a week as the economy limps There's lot of liquidity around. My bank reduced my fixed depo rate to 6.5%. It made no sense better to take risk on 10% yield on KCB and some capital gains. There will tears at some point but for now madness is back Turnover in equity bank is nearly ksh.500mn BAT is doing a turnover of ksh.384mn Total turnover today in the NSE today might hit a bn shillings @wukan interest rate for a FIXED deposit can be reduced prior to maturity? @obiero it was renewal after maturity. Look at T-Bills though you need to open an account at CBK. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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VituVingiSana wrote: Look at T-Bills though you need to open an account at CBK.
No thanks. GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services Quote:First, the fact that the National Treasury is warming up to such an idea exposes a dire state of public finances, which could easily spook investors and probably trigger a sovereign credit ratings downgrade. But most importantly, it amounts to a reverse default by the Kenyan government, and introduces an element of credit risk on all government debt, which, in turn, will mean that financial institutions must now hold capital against any exposures. I don’t think they are ready for such a scenario. Quote:Somehow, the Government will need to print itself out of current crisis, and this is just one side of the coin. The other side of the coin, captured in my article titled “Virus calls for extraordinary monetary rescue initiatives”, lays out a case for the central bank role in bailing out the fiscus to the tune of Sh150 billion.
Section 46 of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Act allows the apex bank to make direct advances to the national government for offsetting fluctuations between receipts from the budgeted revenue and payments of the government. https://www.businessdail...545684-57qpr0/index.html
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: Look at T-Bills though you need to open an account at CBK.
No thanks. GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services Quote:First, the fact that the National Treasury is warming up to such an idea exposes a dire state of public finances, which could easily spook investors and probably trigger a sovereign credit ratings downgrade. But most importantly, it amounts to a reverse default by the Kenyan government, and introduces an element of credit risk on all government debt, which, in turn, will mean that financial institutions must now hold capital against any exposures. I don’t think they are ready for such a scenario. Quote:Somehow, the Government will need to print itself out of current crisis, and this is just one side of the coin. The other side of the coin, captured in my article titled “Virus calls for extraordinary monetary rescue initiatives”, lays out a case for the central bank role in bailing out the fiscus to the tune of Sh150 billion.
Section 46 of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Act allows the apex bank to make direct advances to the national government for offsetting fluctuations between receipts from the budgeted revenue and payments of the government. https://www.businessdail...45684-57qpr0/index.html I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come. With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess. That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
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lochaz-index wrote:I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come.
With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess.
That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. First, without your permission or consent, I am stealing the line: "GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services"Second, woooiiiee would you be so kind and point out the banking stocks that are "high exposure to sovereign debt"? Woooiiieee please.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2009 Posts: 246
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aemathenge wrote:lochaz-index wrote:I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come.
With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess.
That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. First, without your permission or consent, I am stealing the line: "GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services"Second, woooiiiee would you be so kind and point out the banking stocks that are "high exposure to sovereign debt"? Woooiiieee please. I imagine most of them. Recently released 2019 financials by KCB and SCBK.... https://kcbgroup.com/wp-...ation-published-min.pdf
https://av.sc.com/ke/con...esults-presentation.pdf
...unless between December 2019 and now, they've significantly reduced their government paper holdings, following the rate cap repeal.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2009 Posts: 246
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Monk wrote:aemathenge wrote:lochaz-index wrote:I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come.
With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess.
That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. First, without your permission or consent, I am stealing the line: "GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services"Second, woooiiiee would you be so kind and point out the banking stocks that are "high exposure to sovereign debt"? Woooiiieee please. I imagine most of them. Recently released 2019 financials by KCB and SCBK.... https://kcbgroup.com/wp-...ation-published-min.pdf
https://av.sc.com/ke/con...esults-presentation.pdf
...unless between December 2019 and now, they've significantly reduced their government paper holdings, following the rate cap repeal. ABSA Gov securities holdings (Dec2019) - Ksh 123B https://www.absabank.co....ement-december-2019.pdf
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,636 Location: NAIROBI
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Monk wrote:aemathenge wrote:lochaz-index wrote:I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come.
With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess.
That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. First, without your permission or consent, I am stealing the line: "GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services"Second, woooiiiee would you be so kind and point out the banking stocks that are "high exposure to sovereign debt"? Woooiiieee please. I imagine most of them. Recently released 2019 financials by KCB and SCBK.... https://kcbgroup.com/wp-...ation-published-min.pdf
https://av.sc.com/ke/con...esults-presentation.pdf
...unless between December 2019 and now, they've significantly reduced their government paper holdings, following the rate cap repeal. Equity bank has the highest Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,472 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Monk wrote:aemathenge wrote:lochaz-index wrote:I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come.
With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess.
That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. First, without your permission or consent, I am stealing the line: "GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services"Second, woooiiiee would you be so kind and point out the banking stocks that are "high exposure to sovereign debt"? Woooiiieee please. I imagine most of them. Recently released 2019 financials by KCB and SCBK.... https://kcbgroup.com/wp-...ation-published-min.pdf
https://av.sc.com/ke/con...esults-presentation.pdf
...unless between December 2019 and now, they've significantly reduced their government paper holdings, following the rate cap repeal. Equity bank has the highest Massive holding by Equity
HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/28/2019 Posts: 88 Location: Talai
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Havent seen this level of Greed since 2006.
Truly peace haa the greatest returns.
Tomorrow we hit 5,000pts,whether or not MPC hikes CBR.
God bless Kenya!!! a New week... Iam imagining if we were hitting 5000pts. what could we be seeing in the markets today
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/18/2019 Posts: 185 Location: kenya
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Monk wrote:aemathenge wrote:lochaz-index wrote:I wouldn't touch any government paper in KE or elsewhere for a long time to come.
With this pandemic, governments have overplayed their hand and the chickens will come home to roost either in the short, medium or long term - perhaps all three in some cases - and I wouldn't want to be caught anywhere near that mess.
That also implies re-evaluating stock holdings like banks with high exposure to sovereign debt. First, without your permission or consent, I am stealing the line: "GoK treasury has too many problems like the PYTs I date. Living large and providing pathetic services"Second, woooiiiee would you be so kind and point out the banking stocks that are "high exposure to sovereign debt"? Woooiiieee please. I imagine most of them. Recently released 2019 financials by KCB and SCBK.... https://kcbgroup.com/wp-...ation-published-min.pdf
https://av.sc.com/ke/con...esults-presentation.pdf
...unless between December 2019 and now, they've significantly reduced their government paper holdings, following the rate cap repeal. Equity bank has the highest Massive holding by Equity Can be easily liquidated no?
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/16/2019 Posts: 313
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CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominanceQuote:
The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.
Quote:The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.
SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,049 Location: Nairobi
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kmucheke wrote:CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominanceQuote:
The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.
Quote:The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.
SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation. CMA should stop bothering about the other 4  SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. And 3 of the 4 are banks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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VituVingiSana wrote:kmucheke wrote:CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominanceQuote:
The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.
Quote:The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.
SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation. CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. And 3 of the 4 are banks. Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook  Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/16/2019 Posts: 313
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slick wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:kmucheke wrote:CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominanceQuote:
The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.
Quote:The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.
SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation. CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. And 3 of the 4 are banks. Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb. Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks?
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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kmucheke wrote:slick wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:kmucheke wrote:CMA raises red flag over top five firms’ dominanceQuote:
The CMA has flagged the dominance of five companies — including SCOM — in the 65-stock Nairobi bourse as a big risk, with the performance of their shares dictating whether the market goes up or down on any given day.
Quote:The combined market value of SCOM, EQTY, EABL, KCB and COOP now stands at Sh1.669 trillion, compared to the total NSE market cap of Sh2.183 trillion.
SCOM alone is worth more than all the other listed firms combined, with its valuation of Sh1.181 trillion accounting for 54.1 percent of the NSE’s market capitalisation. CMA should stop bothering about the other 4 SCOM is 54%!!! The other 4 COMBINED come nowhere close. And 3 of the 4 are banks. Market dominance by a few stocks is also an issue in the US.Over 20% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ is dominated by just 5 stocks ie the Microsoft,Apple,Amazon,Google,Facebook I didn't know that. This is a ticking time bomb. Do you foresee another tech bubble burst in the near future that will affect the FANMAG stocks? I didnt want to go off on a tangent since this thread is dedicated to NSE but to respond yes I agree its a ticking and another tech bubble burst is very possible?When will this burst occur is something one cannot predict as the Fed always seems to "salvage" the market via its money printing schemes.The rampant speculation in the general market and in particular these 5 tech stocks (including Netflix) is unprecedented and even more extreme than in the dotcom bubble.Currently the market is in its biggest bubble in history even bigger than the dotcom one.The NASDAQ had hit over 10,000 a few days ago which is ridiculous.Sure these tech giants are highly innovative but it doesnt justify their extreme stock valuations.Tesla is definitely the worst in the speculative frenzy. Most of the market rally since the March 2020 collapse has been fuelled by these FANMAG (FANMAG stands for Facebook,Amazon,Microsoft,Netflix,Apple,Google) stocks and NASDAQ hit its all time highs over 10,000 a few days ago due to these 6 stocks.Retail speculation coupled with money managers passive investing strategies ie investing in a broader ETF like the QQQs (QQQ is the biggest ETF for the NASDAQ) where money managers prefer to buy the broader QQQ ETF as opposed to buying individual stocks thus there is an over-concentration in these 6 stocks that the QQQ ETF almost predominantly buys.Microsoft,Amazon,Apple have already surpassed the 1 trillion USD market cap.To emphasize the mad speculation by retail investors that supersedes the dotcom madness,retail are piling into companies like Hertz that have already filed for bankruptcy which is stupid to say the least. As I said,its impossible to predict when this mad speculation will end in tears as the Fed keeps printing trillions to pump the market.During the dotcom bubble the Fed was hardly printing money so that collapse (over 80% decline of the NASDAQ in the dotcom burst)occurred but in the current environment there is almost no limits to what the Fed can do.Could the NASDAQ hit even 12,000 or even 15,000 due to Fed money printing?Sure thats possible.Could the tech frenzy collapse also.Yeah thats possible too.Lets see how this insanity plays out Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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