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Mutahi Ngunyi on the Opinion Polls
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washiku
#1 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 8:16:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
@MutahiNgunyi: I crunched the IEBC numbers and I think the polls are cheating Raila deliberately, maybe a scheme. Watch my arguement http://t.co/HHI2punw


Your take?
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  | | Edit by moderator: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 11:26 AM | Reason: tweet updated for user
jamplu
#2 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 8:28:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2010
Posts: 939
Location: Nai
washiku wrote:
@MutahiNgunyi: I crunched the IEBC numbers and I think the polls are cheating Raila deliberately, maybe a scheme. Watch my arguement http://t.co/HHI2punw


Your take?



Watu wakutane kwa debe
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McReggae
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 8:48:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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TAZ
#4 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 9:25:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/14/2007
Posts: 4,152
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????
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McReggae
#5 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 9:33:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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story teller
#6 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 9:34:04 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 415
washiku wrote:
@MutahiNgunyi: I crunched the IEBC numbers and I think the polls are cheating Raila deliberately, maybe a scheme. Watch my arguement http://t.co/HHI2punw


Your take?


His scenario is scary but quite logical...6.2 million headstart for chupilee without breaking a sweat...ati almost a million voters registered in kiambu county alone...whaaat?

No wonder Ruto keeps reminding Cord that they must be willing to concede come march 5th if they lose regardless of the poll ratings.
It's not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 9:41 AM | Reason: Not specified
jyo
#7 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:05:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/5/2009
Posts: 119
Location: nairobi, dolnhom
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???

me thinks Mutahi is growing too old for analysis he anlyses with a locked mind
Your work will form a large part of your life the only way to be trully satisfied is to love what you do.
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poundfoolish
#8 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:12:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
jyo wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???

me thinks Mutahi is growing too old for analysis he anlyses with a locked mind


Mutahi is pointing out the mere truths..
Dont forget to add 50% of Nairobi's votes to Jubilee

The problem as i've pointed out before is that Jubillee are already stretched to the maximum.. any wins from the other areas of Kenya are nothing more than 5% of that vote..

In the same breath CORD has to work on voter turn out but can still maneuver and make inroads elsewhere .eg the RV vote, the Western Vote (minus one plus one arithmetics).. but can still raid Rift valley.. Western... etc etc..

Its a tight race and the winner will be by a 'phewks' whisker.. The lose will be a bitter one
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Amores
#9 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:16:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/25/2011
Posts: 2,103
Location: Nrb
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.





I am happy
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McReggae
#10 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:19:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.






Nope, he gives CORD other votes but Amani remains with Western, check again!!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:21 AM | Reason: Not specified
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