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download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
a4architect.com
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 4:30:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
By factoring in the % turnout, the excel documents give a pretty good idea of who will win the elections. Download here below

http://www.a4architect.c...ic/elections-2013-excel/
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Amores
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 4:52:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/25/2011
Posts: 2,103
Location: Nrb
[quote=a4architect.com]By factoring in the % turnout, the excel documents give a pretty good idea of who will win the elections. Download here below

http://www.a4architect.c...c/elections-2013-excel/[/quote]


Jubille oyee!

Where are those ODM die-hards? Utawaona saa hii.
I am happy
Kirika
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 4:55:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/26/2011
Posts: 211
Location: Nairobi

I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...

a4architect.com
#4 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 4:56:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@amores. The pollstars do not factor in % turnout and also 47 counties. With turnout and counties in the mix, this is how things will pan out. You can tweak the docs to reflect your assumptions to see the overall winner.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
a4architect.com
#5 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:04:15 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
Kirika wrote:

I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...



@kirika. Change it to 70 from your end and see the results. This turnout estimate is as per 2007 voter turnout .
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
madollar
#6 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:04:29 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
Kirika wrote:

I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...


kiambu county will cancel out nairobi being home ground of UK turnout will be over 90%smile
a4architect.com
#7 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:12:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@madollar. You can download and change the % from your end. With 70% nairobi turnout, Jubilee still wins. Counties such as Kisii are at 5% Jubilee vs 95 % Cord in the excel doc.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Angelica _ann
#8 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:24:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,941
I agree Jubilee will win round 1 but not with 50+1 as this excel worksheet portrays. there are instances where the potential candidates between OAR and UMK will lose votes to the smaller guys thereby shrinking their overall percentage. tik tok tik tok 4th March here we come to end this debate!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
digitek1
#9 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:26:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/3/2010
Posts: 1,797
Location: Kenya
I hate to pop the party but no one will get 51% round one. Round 2 is tricky for jubilates

Also these figures assume farasi ni wawili...na kuna punda. even a 3% deduction of figures gonna be significant
I may be wrong..but then I could be right
muganda
#10 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:35:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@a4architect, no doubt where your vote leans because your spreadsheet RANDOMLY:

1) gives average of 80% voter turnout in zones where Jubilee carries favour as opposed to 64% for CORD

2) gives Jubilee a majority tally in 42% of the counties in Kenya

3) in the counties where Jubilee leads, you've skewed the vote difference an average 67 percentage points as compared to only 56 points where CORD leads

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