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Home About Me Uhuru Kenyatta Emerges as 1st Round Favorite in Kenya’s March 4th Poll
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washiku
#1 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 11:22:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
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Liv
#2 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 12:24:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
washiku wrote:
According to this blogger:

http://kenopalo.com/2013...-kenyas-march-4th-poll/

Discuss


Ken, You have understimated the GEMA registered voters by about 500k. Central has 2.2million, Meru & Embu has 866k, Nakuru, Laikipia, Narok and Kajiado have another 700k (Minimum); Nairobi has about 700k (Minimum Gema registered voters). This makes a total GEMA base of about 4.4million against your estimate of 3.9 million. Uhuru might not only lead in the first round but actually get 50%+1 votes in that first round depending on voter turnout.
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harrydre
#3 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 1:13:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
I did a similar analysis using % popularity of a candidate by region using the registered voters assuming an even 80% turnout and Uhuru tops by a margin of kindu 400k votes.
i.am.back!!!!
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Lolest!
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 7:57:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
I agree with most of what Opalo has to say. I also see Uhuru winning round 1 and losing round 2. The loss in round 2 is given because Musalia, PK n Karua people are mostly anti-Uhuru. That is how Amolo will end up in State Hse and Steve in Karen.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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Amores
#5 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 8:49:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/25/2011
Posts: 2,103
Location: Nrb
Lolest! wrote:
I agree with most of what Opalo has to say. I also see Uhuru winning round 1 and losing round 2. The loss in round 2 is given because Musalia, PK n Karua people are mostly anti-Uhuru. That is how Amolo will end up in State Hse and Steve in Karen.



In the unlikely event that RAO wins,it is not because ati votes za Karua na PK,no,it is because of Mudavadi's votes.


Uhuru ndiye Rais watu wazoee.

It is Chupillee year !
I am happy
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kimiri
#6 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 3:25:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/12/2008
Posts: 215
The analysis by Opalo is quite realistic and a UHURUTO win is indeed a possibility. Many Kenyans however do not realize this as pollsters have been projecting an outright OAR win. My worry therefore is what might be the consequences if the ODM loses. It is possible that OAR will first allege that the BVRs were tampered with and then call for mass action. I think the country needs to institute some quality controls on the way these opinion polls are conducted to avert a recurrence of what happened in 2007.
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KulaRaha
#7 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 3:30:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Say Uhuru loses, will there be trouble given his closeness to the incumbent? Will they swear him in against wishes of the people? The incumbent has a bad precedence regarding such tabias.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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ZZE123
#8 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 3:54:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/21/2008
Posts: 2,490
kimiri wrote:
The analysis by Opalo is quite realistic and a UHURUTO win is indeed a possibility. Many Kenyans however do not realize this as pollsters have been projecting an outright OAR win. My worry therefore is what might be the consequences if the ODM loses. It is possible that OAR will first allege that the BVRs were tampered with and then call for mass action. I think the country needs to institute some quality controls on the way these opinion polls are conducted to avert a recurrence of what happened in 2007.

If COARD losses I guarantee you skirmishes in certain parts of this country
He who pays the piper calls the tune!
The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
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Njung'e
#9 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 4:01:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
If i were OAR,this are the kind of realist chaps i would wish to have around.Those who will point out when the King is naked.....and fire all those busybodies who are not telling him reality as is on the ground.......i would give this blogger 90%.

@Chair,
Uhuru will concede and the country will move on.My fear is what happens some other candidate loses.Did i say sometimes back watu waanze gym?Pray
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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harrydre
#10 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 4:19:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
KulaRaha wrote:
Say Uhuru loses, will there be trouble given his closeness to the incumbent? Will they swear him in against wishes of the people? The incumbent has a bad precedence regarding such tabias.


Uhuru has a history of conceding defeat unlike some other candidates.
i.am.back!!!!
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