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Presidential poll uncertainties - walk-over!
Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/29/2008 Posts: 1,566
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Less than two Months into the General elections, we remain politically groping in the dark. If for example, the Presidential poll were to go to a run off, what would be course of action given that Uhuru and Ruto have a case to answer in March 10&11!!!! Supposing they are held up at the Hague, will their supposed rival Candidate be declared elected unopposed, or will the second runners up occupy the void for the run off! We are unnecessarily walking a political tight rope, though we still await the eligibility case determination on account of Integrity requirements of the Constitution !! Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,930
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It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. 36% ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. Umepotea. Luhyas have only one rule: Mutafati or Raira. Kwisha! TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/29/2008 Posts: 1,566
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McReggae wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. 36% @ Mcreggae Thats my view actually. Uhuru Candidature isnt getting past thirties in percentage points! @ Angelica Where did you get it from that sitting Presidents are not to be prosecuted at the ICC!! Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. I love this fantasy football...you actually think that by running away from the Hague, these guys are helping Kenyans? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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KulaRaha wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. I love this fantasy football...you actually think that by running away from the Hague, these guys are helping Kenyans? Hague is inevitable. The accusers are Kenyans, the people seeking justice are Kenyans and not Europeans and Americans. Let's never forget that. Vote wisely.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2010 Posts: 1,797 Location: Kenya
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All the same CORD should campaign properly and not depend on a thro pass in the name of hague. Being in the hague doesnt mean you cant be voted for, so long as the name is on the ballot voting will happen. Presidency doest offer immunity from prosecution but they can use it to have the cases postponed I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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digitek1 wrote:Presidency doest offer immunity from prosecution but they can use it to have the cases postponed Now, where did you get that from? ICC can allow you to postpone justice?
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/5/2010 Posts: 2,061 Location: Nairobi
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digitek1 wrote:All the same CORD should campaign properly and not depend on a thro pass in the name of hague.
Being in the hague doesnt mean you cant be voted for, so long as the name is on the ballot voting will happen.
Presidency doest offer immunity from prosecution but they can use it to have the cases postponed There is some immunity from criminal prosecution, but it is curtailed by this clause: (4) The immunity of the President under this Article shall not extend to a crime for which the President may be prosecuted under any treaty to which Kenya is party and which prohibits such immunity. .. UHURUTO can and might be voted in, if the Supreme Court interprets Chapter 6 weakly, but I am quite confident if they get elected someone will swiftly move for removal of PORK by impeachment ...esp if they jump attending trial, as they probably are planning to do. It will be a difficult ship to run till 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,930
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Uhuruto has locked in 1. Central with high registration and likely high voter turn out. 2. Central and North Rift courtesy of Ruto. 3. Nairobi they are doing 53.5% 4. Patrolists, they are ahead of OAR with their nose makers in Duale, Kaparo,et all 5. Coast is 50/50 6. See how hard they are working on Kuria and Kisii/Nyamira areas over the last 2 days. Things are looking for Jubilee alliance in the year of Jubilee celebrations. I will come back with country by county figures, we are still crunching the numbers. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,330 Location: Masada
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Angelica _ann wrote:Uhuruto has locked in
1. Central with high registration and likely high voter turn out.
2. Central and North Rift courtesy of Ruto.
3. Nairobi they are doing 53.5%
4. Patrolists, they are ahead of OAR with their nose makers in Duale, Kaparo,et all
5. Coast is 50/50
6. See how hard they are working on Kuria and Kisii/Nyamira areas over the last 2 days.
Things are looking for Jubilee alliance in the year of Jubilee celebrations.
I will come back with country by county figures, we are still crunching the numbers.
Wishful numbers. Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2010 Posts: 1,797 Location: Kenya
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2012 wrote:digitek1 wrote:Presidency doest offer immunity from prosecution but they can use it to have the cases postponed Now, where did you get that from? ICC can allow you to postpone justice? ICC doesnt operate in a vaccum. it is very much alive to the political economy. Remember it voluntarily postponed the cases to allow for elections I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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2012 wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. I love this fantasy football...you actually think that by running away from the Hague, these guys are helping Kenyans? Hague is inevitable. The accusers are Kenyans, the people seeking justice are Kenyans and not Europeans and Americans. Let's never forget that. Vote wisely. Justice must not only be served but seen to be served. We aren't that foolish. There is no justice where some charges are pressed on some and others left out. And God isn't foolish either! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:2012 wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. I love this fantasy football...you actually think that by running away from the Hague, these guys are helping Kenyans? Hague is inevitable. The accusers are Kenyans, the people seeking justice are Kenyans and not Europeans and Americans. Let's never forget that. Vote wisely. Justice must not only be served but seen to be served. We aren't that foolish. There is no justice where some charges are pressed on some and others left out. And God isn't foolish either! ...according to your intel who has been left out? possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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I thought @angelica_ann is a cordee! Uhuruto getting 36%? Hiyo haitahappen. Uhuruto did their math and saw the math would push them into the 40s. Then they saw it fit to kick Musalia. 2nd rnd ndiyo hawawesmake. I imagine voters who picked PK, Musalia Kiyiapi and Karua. They wouldn't go for Uhuruto. It would be better to do Railonzo. Do the 2 have to be in Kenya? They don't. Round 2 is automatic between no1 and 2. For me this is a non issue but still Cord will win when it goes round 2. Peni zangu mbili za Tanzania.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Angelica _ann wrote:It wont get to that. With MM in the mix, UHURUTO are guaranteed 1st round win of 52%. they would have been soon in by the time Hague comes and therefore cannot be prosecuted - sitting president. @Angelica,
Yours is the closest to the reality on the ground.
36% is for CORD if they really do well. Some people are still basing their numbers on the flawed population census figures here.
People will vote according to tribes...middle class thinking has no effect in this election.
It is estimated that:
GEMA has 30% of registered voters
Kalenjin has 13% of registered voters
The total of this is 43%. (given a national voters turn out of 70% (10 million voters will turn out), the contribution of GEMA and Kalenjin will be 48% (Historically they have the highest voter turnout). This excludes any votes from the Somali, Kisii, Maasai, Mijikenda communities to Jubilee.
It will take a miracle for CORD to lead in the 1st round of voting with Musalia taking the Western Kenya.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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@Liv, but still they will lose round 2. Jubilee must win round 1 or lose kabisa. Cord can afford to lose 1st round so long as Jubilee doesnt get 50%
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Lolest! wrote:I thought @angelica_ann is a cordee!
Uhuruto getting 36%? Hiyo haitahappen. Uhuruto did their math and saw the math would push them into the 40s. Then they saw it fit to kick Musalia.
2nd rnd ndiyo hawawesmake. I imagine voters who picked PK, Musalia Kiyiapi and Karua. They wouldn't go for Uhuruto. It would be better to do Railonzo.
Do the 2 have to be in Kenya? They don't. Round 2 is automatic between no1 and 2. For me this is a non issue but still Cord will win when it goes round 2.
Peni zangu mbili za Tanzania. Haiya,i thought @ Angelica was soo corded! @Angelica,when did you see the light  After all,it's the year of jubilee  Keep crunching those numbers for us! @SufficientlyP
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