C&P
Final update by IEBC
R. VALLEY: 3,373,853-------
assume 100% UHURU
CENTRAL: 2,190,477---------
ASSUME 100% UHURU
EASTERN: 2,092,883---------
ASSUME 10% Uhuru REST
RAILA
NYANZA: 1,954,756----------
Assume 3% Uhuru ''
NAIROBI: 1,778,903 --------
Assume 50% Uhuru ''
WESTERN: 1,434,987-------
Assume 5% UHURU ''
COAST: 1,164,083----------
Assume 10% Uhuru ''
NORTH EAST:347,457-------
Assume 5% Uhuru ''
TOTAL: 14,337,399
>>>>>>>>>>>>UHURU =6.9M
''
n/b (This is a PURE
assumption !!)
Lets try this ..ASSUMING ITS
A TWO HORSE RACE
RAILA Vs UHURU MARCH
2013
CASE ONE >>> UHURU
1.R.VALLEY & CENTRAL
VOTING FOR UHURU =5.5M
ADD 50% NAIROBI (889,451)
..ADD 10% EASTERN (209,288)
..ADD 10% COAST (116,408)
..ADD 10% NORTH EASTERN
(34,745)..ADD 5% WESTERN
(71,749)..ADD 3% NYANZA
(97,737)
TOTAL VOTES=6.9M
CASE TWO>>>RAILA
2.14.3M-7M=7M(UHURU)
Approximately...
(((CASE 3>>> OTHER
PRES.CANDIDATES + SPOILT
VOTES =300K)))
Meaning that it will be a tie
and i predict a RE-RUN in June
2013..

Let's discuss.

@simonkabz,you have a valid argument but turnout in luhyaland will be low,remember their candidate will have lost in round one and anyway they rarely impress in turnout despite their huge numbers,same to coast.

i have also done my calculations constituency by constituency (for all 290) and have seen in Round 1;
-CORD Alliance.......... 45.67 percent
- Jubillee Alliance..... 44.10 percent
- Others .................... 9.23 percent
- Spoilt n no show .... 1.00 percent

ditto!!! Who gains from the voter apathy from the swing tribes?I think Jubilee.

Another CnP

Janeth Cheruiyot
HAVE SEEN THIS
MATHEMATICS SOMEWHERE
AND I
THINK IT MAKES SOME SENSE
Final update by IEBC
R. VALLEY: 3,373,853
CENTRAL: 2,190,477
EASTERN: 2,092,883
NYANZA: 1,954,756
NAIROBI: 1,778,903
WESTERN: 1,434,987
COAST: 1,164,083
NORTH EAST:347,457
TOTAL: 14,337,399 Now i
understand why the
CORD
leadership is asking for more
time for
registration. They have looked
at the
numbers and they are
panicking. The
numbers do not simply add up
on their
favor. TNA/URP alliance has
the numbers to win
in first round. There is NO way
under the
sun politically, arithmetically
or otherwise
the figures can be changed or
cooked in
their favor. If you doubt take a
calculator.....
1.Donate ALL Western and
Nyanza votes
to ODM which is an
impossibility since we
have Kisii , kikuyus, and
Kalenjins living in
Nyanza and western. 2.
Donate HALF of Nairobi,
Eastern and
North Eastern and three
quarters of coast
to ODM which is still too
generous
because Nairobi is TNA zone
that's why
ODM wants to directly
nominate Bishop
Wanjiru to split the Kikuyu
votes. Coast is also
turning out to be a Jubilee
zone they
don't want to be left out in
government.
But for the purpose of this we
shall not
include Mombasa, Lamu, Taita
Taveta and
Kilifi which are highly
cosmopolitan t in
favor of Jubilee.. We have not
also factored Ngilu's
contribution and the fact
that on our own We are going
to get
substantial Eastern votes.
3.Donate about 400k
votes to ODM from
Rift valley though as Ruto said
the
Achicha goons are not more
than thirty in
Rift valley. If Tinga Gets half a
million
votes in Rift valley, i will buy
free lunch to
ten People who are willing to
bet. Franklin Bett did
not quite the race forFun. The
ground is highly
hostile to
anything ODM. He avoided
writing his
own political obituary. Rift
valley is highly
a URP zone with Towns being
TNA like
Nakuru, Naivasha etc 4.
Donate about 90k votes to
Odm from
central though Mungiki are not
that
many in central.Last time
Tinga got a
paltry 34K. if the figure
doubles i will be
shocked! 5. Add the remaining
votes not donated
2.97m rift valley+2.1m central
+0 votes
Nyanza+1m Eastern+889k
Nairobi+0
votes western+300k votes
coast+173k
North eastern=7.5Million
votes for TNA/
URP which is about 52%.
CORD is running
desperate
they are using
the courts to try and block
UHURUTO
from running via the civil
society. I
believe the sovereign power of
the
people of Kenya vests with
the people
themselves.
22 December at
17:35 · · Like · Share · Report
328 people like this.

Another psychoanalysis...

Either way, Pyrrhic victory follows.

...is this why we gained independence?so that every election year we behave like fools and galvanize each other we continue propagating hatred,making otherz seem of less value as compared to others...a majority of us r jst screwed up.

Good analysis except that Western(where the swing votes are) will let him down by lower voter turnout and of these,some will go to mudavadi.
Final verdict: Uhuruto wins with +50% coz of high turnout in their strongholds!!!
Source:History!

@Obi, Nairobi is 50-50, though you have done a good/fair analysis. I have never imagined an ODMer can see facts as you have seen.

ION, how will my Tuju fair? Apart from my vote and his immediate family, iko zingine kweli?

cord cannot beat Jubilee in Eastern. You can take that to the Bank.Any bank