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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
obiero
#1661 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2017 4:42:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
muandiwambeu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Another counter to delete from my list of investible firms until a thorough forensic audit is performed and appropriate NPLs taken. Perhaps it is time for a new broom?

@obiero, wewe baki ndani ya hii tumbili. I know you got them steel balls to see you through the bumpy ride ahead. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Someone asked how much loss can you stomach, for this one, not any other cent on top. Full stop. Too bad that hii maneno inakaa ndio mistari hapa dani.

Definitely not buying more but the stake I hold is not money, loose change actually.. Won't lose and sleep over its collapse or lack thereof.. At least dividend is assured..

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Kausha
#1662 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2017 10:27:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.
obiero
#1663 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2017 10:54:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Kausha wrote:
What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...74094-1162lnc/index.html

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#1664 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 12:53:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#1665 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 4:50:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#1666 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:56:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.

@sparkly agreed.. only the mentally blind cannot see through Isika's smoke screen..
@vvs who is the chairman at Equity.. James Mwangi works for P M who by Britam proxy indirectly owns over 25% of HF.. Learn more about institutions and the owners

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#1667 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 8:59:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.

@sparkly agreed.. only the mentally blind cannot see through Isika's smoke screen..
@vvs who is the chairman at Equity.. James Mwangi works for P M who by Britam proxy indirectly owns over 25% of HF.. Learn more about institutions and the owners


@Obiero - Stop being vague. Spell it out for us, like you do for KQ (with disastrous results), O Great Fountain of Knowledge.

@Sparkly - Where there is smoke there is (possibly) fire. For the sake of HF [& the industry] I hope all this blows over but I need to see the 4Q 2016 and the 1Q 2017 numbers before I remove HFCK from my list of non-investable firms. [BTW, most banks will have an "interesting" 1Q 2017 with a full quarter under Interest Caps and enhanced NPLs under the new governor]

Good luck!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#1668 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 9:36:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.

@sparkly agreed.. only the mentally blind cannot see through Isika's smoke screen..
@vvs who is the chairman at Equity.. James Mwangi works for P M who by Britam proxy indirectly owns over 25% of HF.. Learn more about institutions and the owners


@Obiero - Stop being vague. Spell it out for us, like you do for KQ (with disastrous results), O Great Fountain of Knowledge.

@Sparkly - Where there is smoke there is (possibly) fire. For the sake of HF [& the industry] I hope all this blows over but I need to see the 4Q 2016 and the 1Q 2017 numbers before I remove HFCK from my list of non-investable firms. [BTW, most banks will have an "interesting" 1Q 2017 with a full quarter under Interest Caps and enhanced NPLs under the new governor]

Good luck!


@VVS I agree there is probably a fire but regardless of the management dirt dished out in the courtroom, the labour court cannot make a determination whether there is fraud or impropriety on the part of senior HF management. The court can only make a determination whether on a balance of probability, Isika's right to continue his employment with HF was infringed.
Life is short. Live passionately.
FRM2011
#1669 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 9:39:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,459
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.


Thought there is that small matter of guys living in glass houses not throwing stones.

From what is coming out, this isika is one of those proud and difficult-to-work-with guys.

But no one has accused him of failing to protect shareholder interests. He seems to have discovered these shenanigans with the top mgt and that put them on a collision course.

To us as investors, the fraud drama is really the issue.

Let me repeat an analogy that was given here a while back by @maichblack. A truant kid runs away from school and finds the dad and the house girl in a compromising situation. When he reports what he saw at the dinner table with the mother around, the dad insists that the main issue at hand is why he had ran away from school.
sparkly
#1670 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 10:26:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
FRM2011 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.


Thought there is that small matter of guys living in glass houses not throwing stones.

From what is coming out, this isika is one of those proud and difficult-to-work-with guys.

But no one has accused him of failing to protect shareholder interests. He seems to have discovered these shenanigans with the top mgt and that put them on a collision course.

To us as investors, the fraud drama is really the issue.

Let me repeat an analogy that was given here a while back by @maichblack. A truant kid runs away from school and finds the dad and the house girl in a compromising situation. When he reports what he saw at the dinner table with the mother around, the dad insists that the main issue at hand is why he had ran away from school.


If a kid is being punished for running away from school, what is the relevance of the father's infidelity? The issue of infidelity belongs to the divorce court or the marriage counselor.

If he was really fired for blowing the whistle on management impropriety, I am sure shareholders like @Obiero will defend and reward him.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#1671 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 11:32:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.

@sparkly agreed.. only the mentally blind cannot see through Isika's smoke screen..
@vvs who is the chairman at Equity.. James Mwangi works for P M who by Britam proxy indirectly owns over 25% of HF.. Learn more about institutions and the owners


@Obiero - Stop being vague. Spell it out for us, like you do for KQ (with disastrous results), O Great Fountain of Knowledge.

@Sparkly - Where there is smoke there is (possibly) fire. For the sake of HF [& the industry] I hope all this blows over but I need to see the 4Q 2016 and the 1Q 2017 numbers before I remove HFCK from my list of non-investable firms. [BTW, most banks will have an "interesting" 1Q 2017 with a full quarter under Interest Caps and enhanced NPLs under the new governor]

Good luck!


@VVS I agree there is probably a fire but regardless of the management dirt dished out in the courtroom, the labour court cannot make a determination whether there is fraud or impropriety on the part of senior HF management. The court can only make a determination whether on a balance of probability, Isika's right to continue his employment with HF was infringed.

I agree. Isika is trying to "prove" that he was sacked coz he didn't play along. My question is: Is there any truth to what Isika is alleging [regardless whether his rants are irrelevant to the court case]?
We saw how NPLs [poorly documented loans, personal loans, poor corporate governance] screwed over KCB in the 90s & early 2000s. Same with NBK. Then there was Imperial and Chase. Also add many other KE banks.

Anyway, good luck to you. I hope it works out for HFCK coz a stumble at HFCK will affect the entire (jittery) sector including my shares in I&M, DTB, NIC and Equity.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1672 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 11:37:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Kausha]What will the majority shareholder do? Watch management cock up the investment or take matters by the scruff of the neck? The latter looks very plausible. Bet the year won't end without a corporate action hapo.

Bulk of the same alleged insider borrowers happen to just be part of the largest HF shareholders. P M, Benson and T K should be put under doctors watch.. Meanwhile, more evidence exists that Ireri could not be a person with propensity to digging his own grave http://www.businessdaily...4094-1162lnc/index.html[/quote]


Seeing all the drama on HFCK reminds me of one smart James Mwangi, who had Equity dump its stake in HFCK. They must have known what was likely to happen.


The fraud drama is really unnecessary in a suit for unfair dismissal.

The issue at trial should be whether the employee was dismissed through the right procedure. If not, he can be awarded up to 12 months pay as compensation.

This is very personal between Isika and the HF establishment.


Thought there is that small matter of guys living in glass houses not throwing stones.

From what is coming out, this isika is one of those proud and difficult-to-work-with guys.

But no one has accused him of failing to protect shareholder interests. He seems to have discovered these shenanigans with the top mgt and that put them on a collision course.

To us as investors, the fraud drama is really the issue.

Let me repeat an analogy that was given here a while back by @maichblack. A truant kid runs away from school and finds the dad and the house girl in a compromising situation. When he reports what he saw at the dinner table with the mother around, the dad insists that the main issue at hand is why he had ran away from school.


If a kid is being punished for running away from school, what is the relevance of the father's infidelity? The issue of infidelity belongs to the divorce court or the marriage counselor.

If he was really fired for blowing the whistle on management impropriety, I am sure shareholders like @Obiero will defend and reward him.


The drama (& cost) of the divorce/counseling will outweigh all else. All will suffer. The kid. The couple. The other kids. Even the maid. The kid will be blamed by the father for opening his mouth. The mother blames the maid. The maid blames the father. The other kids blame the truant.

Was the kid acting out coz he knew/felt something wasn't right between the parents?

Nasty situation coz the father couldn't keep it in his pants.

Again, good luck. A fallout at HFCK will negatively affect the other (mid-sized/small) banks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Metasploit
#1673 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 11:37:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
I have been buying..

Human psychology..People forget soo quickly


“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
obiero
#1674 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 1:44:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Metasploit wrote:
I have been buying..

Human psychology..People forget soo quickly


@metaspoilt Our good Lord just like in the case of David-Goliath, favors the brave.. Price is up today

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
MaichBlack
#1675 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 2:35:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
obiero wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
I have been buying..

Human psychology..People forget soo quickly


@metaspoilt Our good Lord just like in the case of David-Goliath, favors the brave.. Price is up today

Truth be told, Warren Buffet's mantra of "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" and Baron Rothschild's "Buy when there is blood on the street - even if the blood is yours!" are very easy to quote but very difficult to implement.

This is a buyer's market. But even the kawaida players are scared sh!tless!! Then in 2018 onwards, people will start talking about the low prices of 2016 - 2017 and how they should have bought bla bla bla.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#1676 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 2:38:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
The 1973-74 bear market gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to purchase a stake in the Washington Post Company - an investment that has subsequently increased by more than 100-times the purchase price - that's before dividends are included.

At the time, Buffett said he was buying shares in the company at a deep discount, as evidenced by the fact that the company could have "… sold the (Post's) assets to any one of 10 buyers for not less than $400 million, probably appreciably more." Meanwhile, the Washington Post Company had only an $80 million
market cap at the time.



Tafakari hayo ya Babu!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
sparkly
#1677 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 2:49:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
MaichBlack wrote:
The 1973-74 bear market gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to purchase a stake in the Washington Post Company - an investment that has subsequently increased by more than 100-times the purchase price - that's before dividends are included.

At the time, Buffett said he was buying shares in the company at a deep discount, as evidenced by the fact that the company could have "… sold the (Post's) assets to any one of 10 buyers for not less than $400 million, probably appreciably more." Meanwhile, the Washington Post Company had only an $80 million
market cap at the time.



Tafakari hayo ya Babu!!!


You and I disagree on many issues but here we are in agreement.

When counters trade at PE of 5 and DY of 10%, its time to buy.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#1678 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 3:48:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
obiero wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
I have been buying..

Human psychology..People forget soo quickly


@metaspoilt Our good Lord just like in the case of David-Goliath, favors the brave.. Price is up today

Truth be told, Warren Buffet's mantra of "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" and Baron Rothschild's "Buy when there is blood on the street - even if the blood is yours!" are very easy to quote but very difficult to implement.

This is a buyer's market. But even the kawaida players are scared sh!tless!! Then in 2018 onwards, people will start talking about the low prices of 2016 - 2017 and how they should have bought bla bla bla.

Not buying and not selling as at today, but in 3 weeks time

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
actuarywahisa
#1679 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 4:39:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/21/2014
Posts: 184
I am still stuck on the allegation of KES 4B hidden NPLs.
There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
obiero
#1680 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:13:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
actuarywahisa wrote:
I am still stuck on the allegation of KES 4B hidden NPLs.

Get unstuck my friend.. That's a theory

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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