It never ceases to amaze me how much things go his way, even when the situation seems most helpless. When he announced his candidacy in Feb 2007, I admit nikiwa na aibu I was one of those who never believed he had a chance.

Here's why:

He was polling 50-plus percentage points behind Clinton @ that point.

He hadn't finished a single term in the US senate (by the way, his senate win is a story in itself of things falling in his favor).

He was very young, just barely into his mid 40s.

He had no national profile.

In Feb 2007, he had no money.

And of course, whisper, whisper, ni mweusi, jameni.

Well, we know how that story ended. He was Political Superman to me by Nov 2008. Nothing this guy couldn't do.

Yet just 6 months ago, he was left for dead. A badly limping economy, a hugely unpopular healthcare bill and high unemployment. A one-term president? Republicans were salivating. BHO was out. I was in the dumps.

Funny thing is, the economy is turning around, strongly. Watu wana ajiriwa, unemployment has fallen, people are optimistic and Obama is getting some credit for the economic recovery. Every week, poll numbers show the gap between him and the Republicans increasing.

What has me shaking my head is how at JUST THE RIGHT MOMENT, the economy started improving. If this improvement had started just 3 months later, the sense that things are improving might not have caught up with the electorate in time to give Obama the boost he needs. It would have sucked big- time for the economy to start improving too late to save Obama's job, only for the Republicans to take credit for his recovery.

Funny how the same thing could happen hap a nyumbani. Kibaki struggles mightily to lay the infrastructure and other public goods that facilitate rapid growth but divisive politics holds us back - not saying Kibaki was innocent, just so I'm clear. Then the next president inherits a much more functional state and goes on to achieve 6 - 7% annual growth for 10 years and in doing so doubles the size of the Kenyan economy.

At the end of his 2nd term, he is declared the Greatest President in Kenya's History. Dunia kweli wakati mwingine haina haki.

@Sirikali, I was thinking the same the other day. That if things hold up, this time next year Obama will have a new name: Lucky Barrack.

You forgot something else playing into Obama's luck. The Republicans are competing to hand him the most beatable candidate they can find find in their ranks. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are so toxic they could not win if they were running against themselves. Mitt 'robot' Romney is not much better. Obama must be salivating.

It is true that Republicans are presenting such a weak field, a fact made even more remarkable in that they have stronger candidates among their ranks. Still, the election might not be a rout for Obama. Assuming Mitt is the Republican nominee, he will be backed by sponsors raising unlimited funds and is well placed to match Obama's fundraising. McCain couldn't in 2008, and that was a decisive disadvantage. Lakini Barack more than likely wins (I hope) but not with the 10% margin some polls are showing. More like the typical 4%, improving economy and all. I'll even settle for 1%.

@Sirikali1
Look at who's giving political analysis! Did you find that in your new I pad?