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EAC intergration; comon currency, are we ready yet?
kaifastus
#1 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 2:06:41 PM
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Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Its believed that comon curency worsened euro debt crisis... is e.afrika ready..
Jamani
#2 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 2:33:32 PM
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Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
What would you say of Britain which is in europe and had economic issues of their own, without being part of the euro..
slykat
#3 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 2:40:14 PM
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Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
If I was Kenya, I would stay clear of monetary union way the UK did.

Even though the EU consists of members with;

1. Far more stable politics

2. Far better fiscal discipline

3. Grand corruption of the Goldenberg or Triton scale is unheard of.

and, the EU itself enforces fiscal discipline seriously; it still had member states defaulting on fiscal rules from time to time, and finally some members almost going bust, dragging all down.

Now, in E.A member states, where fiscal discipline goes out the window every election year, you can imagine what will be happening to the rest of the region financially when one state is messing about to print or raise campaign funds or to go to war or to extend term of office against popular will (M7 - never mind general insecurity and political instability or our cyclic famines.

I would stay clear of monetary union. There will be no effective way of enforcing adherence to rules...as seen in the EU, exposing every member to risks caused by one another's financial cum political shenanigans. With all the members, every yr wud be election year....which is economic, political and even security trouble.

Eg. With single currency, Patni and his Goldenberg would have messed all the economies involved because of official corruption in one member state.

slykat
#4 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 3:23:44 PM
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Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
Jamani wrote:
What would you say of Britain which is in europe and had economic issues of their own, without being part of the euro..


Eish eish! Jamani, think!

Distinguish between the global economic recession and the euro-crisis - clearly two different things that nobody said are mutually exclusive at any time. Current issue, the former may have contributed to or worsened the latter since it started first and now the latter is worsening the former.
Jamani
#5 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 3:45:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
@Slykat.. does it mean if i asked a simple question i wasn't thinking? and you clearly state that ...... clearly two different things that nobody said are mutually exclusive at any time..... i
kaifastus
#6 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 4:57:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
slykat wrote:
If I was Kenya, I would stay clear of monetary union way the UK did.

Even though the EU consists of members with;

1. Far more stable politics

2. Far better fiscal discipline

3. Grand corruption of the Goldenberg or Triton scale is unheard of.

and, the EU itself enforces fiscal discipline seriously; it still had member states defaulting on fiscal rules from time to time, and finally some members almost going bust, dragging all down.

Now, in E.A member states, where fiscal discipline goes out the window every election year, you can imagine what will be happening to the rest of the region financially when one state is messing about to print or raise campaign funds or to go to war or to extend term of office against popular will (M7 - never mind general insecurity and political instability or our cyclic famines.

I would stay clear of monetary union. There will be no effective way of enforcing adherence to rules...as seen in the EU, exposing every member to risks caused by one another's financial cum political shenanigans. With all the members, every yr wud be election year....which is economic, political and even security trouble.

Eg. With single currency, Patni and his Goldenberg would have messed all the economies involved because of official corruption in one member state.



I can imagine.. but EA currencies by themselves have become too vulnerable and unpredictable. its a political issue aimed at integrating countries but still who gets seiginorage income countries will relinquish control over their respective Monetary Policy.
Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 11:32:48 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Surprised @hisah is yet to comment here smile
slykat
#8 Posted : Tuesday, February 07, 2012 3:19:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
Jamani wrote:
@Slykat.. does it mean if i asked a simple question i wasn't thinking? and you clearly state that ...... clearly two different things that nobody said are mutually exclusive at any time..... i


Pole Jamani,

Maybe I was a little harsh. I just found ur question a leading one i.e. suggestive of an (fallacious) answer to itself; that since the UK is not in the Euro-zone, then it shoud not be in the current economic stagnation. Maybe that's not how you meant it.

UK's economy was in trouble even before many European economies. The Euro-crisis was a result not a cause. But now is a post-facto cause. Now, the Euro-crisis has not affected UK directly because UK banks are not exposed in Greece/Spain/Italy. But Europe's trade with Britain is over 50% (imports and eports) so if Europe bleeds, UK bleeds too.

Disclaimer: Am not an economist.
hisah
#9 Posted : Tuesday, February 07, 2012 5:26:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Slykat - The UK treasury will say their banks are owed X billions while BIS says its almost 3-4 times more than UK's treasury estimates. The real issue is not the hellenic bonds value exposure, but the insurance on those bonds called CDS. If they get triggered (this is why the EU & ISDA are fighting off a greece credit event) since the CDS rates would rocket immediately across euroland bonds. All PIIGS would immediately get nailed with the rocketing insurance costs on their bonds. That spiral effect would then throw the main insurers under the bus hence dragging down several eurobanks with them. This would also send the shockwaves to US banks. Unfortunately since the GFC, the CDS market is still a blackhole - murky regulation! So estimating the money spiral would be tricky with billions or trillions of dollars getting wiped off in a few hours! My worry with euroland is not greece defaulting silently, but disordely (most likely). When the disorderly happens the PIIGS CDS will be unbearable making Lehman's event look like child's play!
http://www.dailymail.co....risis-cost-UK-335bn.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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