wazua Sat, Apr 11, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

3 Pages123>
Kengen Bond vs Select Stocks
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
ecstacy
#1 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 7:43:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
The KGen bond has a guaranteed return of 12.5% p.a. which is a 6.25% semi-annual return. Acceptable and guaranteed rate of return as we help build our Nation.

However,given inflationary concerns,a relatively young SK crowd that can take on higher risk,I ask -

Which stocks do you anticipate to beat this rate of return as at:

1. 'Short-term' - by 30 April 2010 when first interest payment is made and why?
2. 'Mid-term' - by 30 April 2013 when Kenya has had its General Election and why?
3. 'Long-term' - by 30 April 2019 when this bond will be heading to history and why?

Your objective views pls. I'll offer mine as we go along.
Back to top
  |
mukiha
#2 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 10:54:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
If bond is taken up in full,elec supply will improve. Thus I would go with heavy power consumers who are suffering as a result of interruptions. Bamburi comes to mind immediately.

KPLC will also benefit from this bond....they will have the elec to sell to their one million customers.

EA Cables will benefit on the third level....

Perhaps a more interesting discussion would be,should I put my 100k in the bond or in the company?

Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Back to top
  |
sheep
#3 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 12:02:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
NMG,NBK,NIC,KPLC,ARM,DTB etc etc
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
Back to top
  |
Agra
#4 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 1:40:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/22/2007
Posts: 96
Location: Agra, India
I would go for stocks if i would invest 100k i would get 12k @ the end of the year.suppose i buy mumias @ 6.5 i would hv 15000 shares with 0.40 dividends giving me a dividend of 6000k plus potential of hitting 8 bob before ex div raising my capital to by 30k so if i decide to sell i would be much far ahead.
thats wat i think.

NAMASTE !Don't be unrealistic with your expectations
It's easy for investors to get emotional and prejudiced when trading, but computers don't
Back to top
  |
racheal09
#5 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 2:43:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/1/2009
Posts: 21
100,000kept to generate 12,000yearly? that makes it only 6000shs after 6months,unless the intrest was higher,i think my money can do much more elsewhere.i am of course talking on the minimum level,but even so......i think 100000shs can make you more than 12000shs happier after a year...just my thinking.

kujaribu ndio kupata
Back to top
  |
jaheim
#6 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 4:04:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/11/2008
Posts: 134
12k less with holding tax ama?

Life is like an onion; you peel off one layer at a time and sometimes you weep. Carl Sandburg
Back to top
  |
mukwano
#7 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 9:26:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/15/2006
Posts: 44
what inflation rate do you imagine for the Kenyan economy for this and next yr?

seeing AUG 09 inflation was over 18 % ..
Back to top
  |
Ali Baba
#8 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 11:50:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 573
Bonds in general (like the KenGen bond) are good for people with large amounts of cash-not shs100,000 investors.And they invest in them coz they need their money back in the short to medium term.That's why it defeats logic to argue what stock is better than a bond.By the way,bond investors also have equities in their portfolio.

Ali Baba
Back to top
  |
Mainat
#9 Posted : Saturday, September 12, 2009 12:56:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
IF its a bond vs shares debate,then over an economic cycle,you may find that the bond outperforms the share. It just depends on when you invest in that cycle.
If its KenGen bond vs Kengen share,I'd be tempted to go for the bond.
If its KenGen vs other NSE shares,shares win hands down over whatever period.

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Back to top
  |
bmaster
#10 Posted : Sunday, September 13, 2009 3:55:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/6/2009
Posts: 2
I've worked out the future cash flows from the bond assuming i put in 1 million now and considering they will start ammortizing the bond after 3 years and I didn't like what I saw. My last interest payment in 2019 would be Kes. 3,906.00. If u discount that to its present value even with the conservative T-bill rate of 8%,it comes to a paltry Kes. 1,809.00. Now consider an underperfoming counter like Co-op bank who stood out by giving us half yr results headed north while everyone else was headed south. In ten years time,a divided payout of 2.00 sounds reasonable to me plus a market value in the region of 30.00 thats a capital gain of 200%. My take is that there are many other stocks that can outperform the kengen bond.

Its not your aptitude but your attitude that determines your altitude in life.
Back to top
  |
3 Pages123>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.