Good people, I need your advise. CBK's efforts to tame the run away shilling depreciation seem to have born fruits or are bearing fruits as the shilling continues to slide. My dilemma is whether to take a loan now in USD at the current exchange rate which i will use in Kshs sometime next year or i wait and take the loan sometime in March/April next year depending on the expert opinion of Wazuans on where the trend of this love-hate KSH/$ relationship is headed. The timing is important for me. Do you think the slide will continue and where do you see it in say April when i intend to start my project? Is it safer to take out the loan now, hold until then if today's rate is the best i can get in the next 6 months? Basically, where do you see this shilling thing in March/April next year? Any analysis/links will be appreciated. was also thinking, i could take the loan and buy the 90-day tbills.... does this make financial sense? - Am going through the t-bill thread.

all i can say is that the shilling is headed for the 80's range ...@ 93 level its at 50% fib level since the time the great slide began so i will expect it at that level...question is will it reamin there ???

That too but its important to learn from other people..... otherwise, we wouldnt be in Wazua.... see, you just gave me something that will help.

Fundamentally nothing has changed, so its all dependant on when Nd'ung'u is prevailed upon to start lowering CBR. I however would say that we won't Ksh107 for a while unless the combination that got us occurs again. I also don't see going to Ksh80 before year end. In short, go ahead and borrow the USDs now and stick them into t-bills.

@ Wendz let me wrap my head around what you are trying to do. You are probably the few people who earn in dollars( good for you) and you want to take a dollar loan and pay it off in dollars. The dollar rate is usually lower than the ksh rate I think now it is probably at 8%-10% depending on your bank. So your plan is to borrow in USD convert it to KSH and put it in the tbills. Continue to pay back in USDs from your salo, I think, and pay it back probably at a lumpsum later when the USD to KSH is much better. Okay some advice. You will definitely make money. The shilling is definitely going to strengthen and in an years time might probably be at upper 80s. If you really want to know how much you will make just use excels and ignore QW technical guess work. He can not tell you anything beyond a few days using his technical guesswork. Use the loan amortizer in excel and make 2 loan schedules one for the USD which you will be repaying in USD and the other for the Kenya shilling and you can convert to USD with various exchange rates depending on how much you think the rate will be in time X versus times Y etc. I hope you get my drift! Great idea though. I will discuss with my factory supervisor to start paying me in USD.