Pardon me, I wasn't the smartest in the class..but just suffer me this once.

Now.. forex is actually an auction, right?

Now... traders..importers transact using US Dollars?

..and these US Dollars are obtained from commercial banks and forex bureaus?

..so, supply of the US dollars..to common "mwananichi" trader/importer is technically controlled by bureaus and commercial banks?

(I know CBK is the motherload, but technically...)

..if these bureaus and commercial banks work in concerto to withhold on US Dollars stocks they have.. and the traders/importers..desperate for business targets will keep offering higher rate to get em US Dollars..isn't what is happening the most feasible outcome?

..Now, these banks..with quarterly profits in the billions..thanx to Gvt thirst for cash and high interest rates..if the CBK actually managed to float a Euro Bond at rate less than 6 % over a term of 30-50 years..it means banks will lose biggest customer..hence >10% interest income on bonds... right? ..especially the 45Billion Kenya is seeking for to bridge budget deficit by Jan 2012

..and for treasury to float that Euro Bond..it is a requirement that our forex market be free of Gvt intervention right?

..so..it is possible..banks could be manipulating US Dollar...to force CBK to intervene..hence disqualify probability of Euro Bond?

. ThiEVes!! worse than mungiki. NKT! Pthuu!

this Geoffrey Irungu..who seems to have been more attentive in class than I was has this link..
http://allafrica.com/stories/201106291436.html

what do u know! the Irungu dude does write in the business daily!



seems my thoughts aren't so far off.

LOL I see you are back Proverb...this time with a consipirancy...on which one can write a thesis on...i think Euro bond is a tall order now..if u look at the deteriorating Kenyan finances I.e widening deficit...worsening debt to gdp..slowing economy...etc...who r the culprits??? I think CBK is main culprit here...first they misread the economic cycle and kept interest rates very low I.e whats the logic in keeping CBR at 6.25% while inflation is 13%??? Then CBK started chasing demoms...ati speculators...drought (the weather man said there will be drought in Kenya long time ago)...then CBK engaged in a futile liquidity battle...hehehe look at the latest pressor from CBK then u will realise theyr useless..also check my articles on the Shilling/CBK...banks are in the business to make money and make their shareholders happy....thats all!!

Just see how much the import bill is overtaking exports...that may shed some light...the gap is huge.

Kenya’s spending on oil imports has increased 29.38 per cent in the 12 months to November 2010, making it the single biggest import item, according to a report by the banking sector regulator.

The oil import bill soared by Sh50.5 billion ($608 million) to Sh224.1 billion ($2.7 billion), only second to the total spending on machinery and transport equipment which went up by Sh51.8 billion ($624 million) to $3.7 billion.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK’s) monthly economic review dated December shows total imports increased by $1.8 billion to $12 billion in the one year to November 2010.

http://www.businessdaily.../-/5p3hfqz/-/index.html

Dont believe all the hogwash out there...someone somewhere didn't do his job and is looking to share blame.

I see your point.As pointed out..we import more than we export..always.. nothing special about that.

CASE: if the proposed 45Billion Euro Bond is floated..at a rate less than 6%...which is about half what Treasury is able to afford in domestic debt..potential impact on profits of banks that are really enjoying the money hungry treasury's thirst for cash?

if Treasury found an alternative source of funds... interests fall overnight..to detriment of banks

As deal points out...its just business. If you were a bank.. you would not mind the euro bond idea staying dead.. if you could contribute in some way..eg..get CBK to intervene in liberalized FOREX market..thereby disqualifying the possibility of the Euro bond indefinitely..you would exercise that option won't you?

wow... shilling actually has actually touched a low of 120 this morning!!!..... sasa hio ndio trend beating coz projections were set at 110 by the weekend.

We could get there at the rate the shilling is falling and a clueless CBK,but 120 today??.

Courtesy of Larry Madowo.. PM Live... going on currently... interestingly they seem to think the on going trade fare is more important.

well.. waiting for clarification. i think instead i'm learning all about business opportunities in agriculture!!..wish there was a way to get the forex ticker!