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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Something about these fx rates doesn’t make sense especially given general election is just round the corner. Yesterday $/Ksh and £/Ksh rates at 92 and 150 were the lowest since time immemorial. Since ’94, we have had Goldenberg (okay this reached its zenith in 94); a PEV; several general elections; several severe droughts/famines and yet the rates haven’t touched these lows. Yes interest rates are mismatched to the fundamentals; yes we are financing a drought, but kuna kitu ingine. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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The story I was told is that the politicians who control the finances are 'importing' forex at these (artificially) high levels then parking it in (high) 10% TBs so they are ready for 2012... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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What goes up will come down. With better management at macro economic level with the future regimes this can be reversed to some extent to circa 70 bob to 1 USD. In 2004 during my debut in NSE it was 80 KSH to 1 USD. Mid way in 2005 it was as good aas 58 Ksh to 1 USD. At the moment it is 92. There is hope provided there is better govt. to continue and improve on the out going regime policies. Eddy Njoroge of Kengen said recently when questioned in the parliament that Kenya will switch to thermal Energy in 2014. If he make good his promise then or a few years later it will impact positively on Kenyan econmy. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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UGX also gone to the dogs! http://www.businessdaily...54/-/ed8o89/-/index.htmlGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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[quote=VituVingiSana]UGX also gone to the dogs! http://www.businessdaily...4/-/ed8o89/-/index.html[/quote] No news, you have said that before ! The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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My friend, it is still falling even AFTER the BoU intervened. I wonder how bad it will get. I am this close to bringing my money home! Or convert to US$ or Yen. BTW, did you see dfcu's results? +23% but the gains in PAT in UGX wiped out by devaluation. I am glad you bought the land which should appreciate as UGX depreciates. The way it is going, I might ask you for a room to stay in rent free!  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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VituVingiSana wrote:My friend, it is still falling even AFTER the BoU intervened. I wonder how bad it will get. I am this close to bringing my money home! Or convert to US$ or Yen. BTW, did you see dfcu's results? +23% but the gains in PAT in UGX wiped out by devaluation. I am glad you bought the land which should appreciate as UGX depreciates. The way it is going, I might ask you for a room to stay in rent free! Your investment strategy in UG or any other smaller country should be for long term gains (10 years) minimum. Quite unlike you I am rather sending more few USD to translate to plenty UGX to invest at the time you are scared, because on the long term things will be very good in UG I tell you. Are you no longer a WB follower, why do you want to run away when everyone is scared ? This is the best time for foreigners like me to take positions in Kenya and small UG, as small USD translates to a basket full of money in local currency. You are welcome anytime to my propsed house in Akright Satelite City Kakungulu Estate, I will finish paying for it in 2013 (after Kenya Election). Luckily for me it was priced in UGX so when I send USD it balloons to a lot of money and they cannot increase the price as I have started paying so the agreement is binding. I have been told future pricing of their houses and land will be in USD. Afterall Ghana is doing that. So that means my rent in future will be in USD ? Capitalism per excellent! If I am a Kenyan I would take more interest in Uganda during this temporary confusion because post M7 regime plus petroleum will transform Ugandan Economy in future. Kenyan Banks (KCB, Equity, DTB) are already there, Uchumi, Nakumatt, Textbook Centre (of sarit center) are already there. West African banks (UBA, Ecobank) are already there. Nigerian Insurance company IGI, bought a controlling stake in NIC Uganda. If they are making stupid investment decision, yours trully @young is happy to join them to be stupid. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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@young - Just frustrated! Compare Ghana vs Uganda & I see better prospects there. My Ghana investments have done very well for me. It even pays for my flights there [& those are EXPENSIVE flights!] Uganda - My profits have turned to losses. I agree with the long-term perspective BUT: WB also invests in Management i.e. if Uganda had good leadership (Rwanda, Mauritius, Botswana) but got hurt by other factors e.g. Global Financial Crisis then buy, buy, buy... since those will abate museveni buys $750mn warplanes instead of paying electricity firms. Now Uganda faces severe power rationing. My 'problem' is that he will refuse to leave. Most 'bad/poor/pathetic/thieving' African presidents live very, very long lives. See moi, mugabe, mubarak, etc until they are killed or overthrown. And museveni is physically very fit & unlikely to leave the seat! Ghana: Non-violent change from Kufuor to Atta-Mills (who was in the opposition). Oil production is running well & increasing monthly. Also the cash is being 'stored' for the future & for infrastructure. The oil is off-shore & easy to export. Also potential on-shore finds. Uganda: Oil is 4-5 years away & it cannot be transported to Mombasa by an unheated pipeline. A decent sized refinery would take 5-7 years to be built. So in my own way, I am comparing Uganda to Ghana. I pray I make the right choice when I do! BTW, as always, thanks for you input & views. The UGX land investment was in retrospect very smart! You will get it much cheaper than you thought!!! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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@young - BTW, Uganda is a tough place. Equity Bank made HUGE losses in Uganda for 2 years. Finally they have tuned around. NIC (Nigeria Insurance) was scammed! They ended up paying billions in claims they did not expect to! Something about Makerere Pensions. KCB barely makes a profit from Uganda after 4 years of struggles! DTB is smart. They make money everywhere! I love investing in any & all Aga Khan firms. I have never lost money with them. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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In early 2012 UG expects to atleast start fuelling its thermal power using their own oil. 2ndly, by mid-2012 the 250MW Bujagali Hydro will be fully operational. The rest of the thinking I leave to all of you.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@VVS, Be aware the only time you make a loss is when you sell so if you had a long term view of Uganda why do you worry yourself ? I heard you mention cost of air ticket to Ghana, be aware there is a cheaper to travel to any of these destinations in Africa :- Kenya Ghana RSA/Botswana Egypt. Join a good tourist company and pay up the dues to become a diamond member. In Nigeria the dues is as high as 500,000 KSH equivilent which can be paid over 5 years, there after you pay next to nothing Like 5% for LIFE for air ticket and accomodation for couple + up to 4 kids below 18 years. That is what I use. I expect there is something similar in Kenya, otherwise it will be very expensive to travel to invest. @Cde do not listen to this because you are a young man, you can burn your money for now as you are young until you become old like me. ! The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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VituVingiSana wrote:@young - BTW, Uganda is a tough place.
Equity Bank made HUGE losses in Uganda for 2 years. Finally they have tuned around.
NIC (Nigeria Insurance) was scammed! They ended up paying billions in claims they did not expect to! Something about Makerere Pensions.
KCB barely makes a profit from Uganda after 4 years of struggles!
DTB is smart. They make money everywhere! I love investing in any & all Aga Khan firms. I have never lost money with them. What of Nakumatt and Uchumi ? UBA , ECOBANK, made losses in the first year and profits thereafter. What does Textbook Center want in UG. Any new terrain is always tough even your favourite Rwanda. Your greatest bias against UG is because of M7. I fully agreee with you, but I believe one day M7 will leave the stage and UG will get a breather. That is the reasoning of foreigners . Think ahead do not be b0ogged down by M7 mismanagement. Be aware some foreigners (including me) prefer UG to KE as they find the place cheaper and the people more warm and unique sceneric landscape. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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@young - Link please. I will look for equivalent firms/deals in Kenya. Thanks for the idea. On KQ I pay $900-$1,100 return to Accra. One of the reasons I like KQ as an investment is those flights are almost FULL even after the new 737-800s came in! Even EBB is $350-450 on KQ. I prefer it over the rest since I can get 3-4 choices of flights daily. Wow! I would be very happy with a deal like that you mentioned because my Accra ticket can be paid for + I get free accommodation as well! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@young. Thanks  I am indeed pleased with the SSA positions I hold. Nevertheless, my next investment destination will be the US when they are 80% through the recession
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@VVS check up www.hemingwaysafarinigeria.comYou should have something similar in Kenya. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The forex losses are huge my friend...but the money is sweet...the Shilling can go to Sh100 since I spend most of my time in Kenya...the money is sweet...just the other day I received N$10000...it balooned to over Sh130K on conversion...life is sweet for me...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Investment strategy is to have exposure to all that is causing pain to human beings i.e forex,food,oil,energy,metals. That way u r a net victor of events
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@vvs Also check out www.rvi.co.zaBut I use the Hemingsways Nigeria one I sent earlier. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Investment strategy is to have exposure to all that is causing pain to human beings i.e forex,energy,food,oil,metals. That way u r a net victor of events In the event of the reverse i.e pain turning to pleasure, the above items will still make U wealthier in the long run.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Investment strategy is to have exposure to all that is causing pain to human beings i.e forex,energy,food,oil,metals. That way u r a net victor of events In the event of the reverse i.e pain turning to pleasure, the above items will still make U wealthier in the long run. @CDe do not forget roof over your head or at least plot to stand on because of gravitational force. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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