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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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wukan wrote:wukan wrote:My 2 cents wrote:If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now. Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments. Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up Last week was fun  Too bad the sellers got exhausted on some counters It is too early to call it. Wait until Christmas.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 359
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T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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shocks wrote:T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking. When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843% 2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462% 2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012 Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 496
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wukan wrote:shocks wrote:T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking. When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843% 2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462% 2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012 Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers. So your argument is... context doesn't matter?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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deadpoet wrote:wukan wrote:shocks wrote:T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking. When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843% 2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462% 2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012 Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers. So your argument is... context doesn't matter? At the risk of speaking for Wukan, I guess his point is that context is not predictive.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 359
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wukan wrote:shocks wrote:T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking. When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843% 2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462% 2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012 Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers. I didn't say wait till it bottoms out, just untill a downtrend is confirmed
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Signals are there. Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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shocks wrote:wukan wrote:shocks wrote:T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking. When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843% 2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462% 2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012 Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers. I didn't say wait till it bottoms out, just untill a downtrend is confirmed The downtrend signalQuote:The infrastructure bonds (IFBs) sold by the government this year are trading at a premium in the secondary market at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on elevated demand from retail buyers chasing the high, interest-free interest rates on the two papers.
The 17-year IFB sold in March, the 7-year one floated in June, and the 6.5-year paper sold earlier this month are the only three active bonds that traded above their par, or face value, in Friday’s session.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:
Hail Mary pass
Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling. The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:
Hail Mary pass
Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling. The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings. Atleast tbills are guaranteed to head North
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Ericsson wrote:
Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.
How now? If the devaluation from 100-150 didn't help boost exports what will? I have argued on this forum on kenya's economy having a structural problem. It didn't respond that much to 2021 rate cut stimulus(which is what the monk was trying to achieve) and now did't respond to a competitive devaluation. Quote:“The point we want to make is that we have been losing competitiveness. Our level of exports to GDP has been declining consistently, we are not getting as much tourism receipts as our neighbouring countries, and our FDI has also declined,” said CBK governor Kamau Thugge on Wednesday. So we are now to the 2011 playbook which is to catch the portfolio inflows by hiking rates to match the Fed. US Tbond yields are coming down. Our lazy fund managers have refused to take advantage of low equity prices so let's see if foreign buyers will awaken them Quote:n their August 2023 review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) noted that the market dividend yield stood at 8.63 percent, significantly outperforming the peer average group of stock exchanges in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, which had a yield of 4.28 percent. I expect the market will be reverting to the mean(to get to the frontier market yield) so doubling of market which is much better returns than what you will get from the T-bills. Same reason that in 2011 the market ignored T-bills at 20% Market turnover yesterday was quite robust
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:
Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.
How now? If the devaluation from 100-150 didn't help boost exports what will? I have argued on this forum on kenya's economy having a structural problem. It didn't respond that much to 2021 rate cut stimulus(which is what the monk was trying to achieve) and now did't respond to a competitive devaluation. Quote:“The point we want to make is that we have been losing competitiveness. Our level of exports to GDP has been declining consistently, we are not getting as much tourism receipts as our neighbouring countries, and our FDI has also declined,” said CBK governor Kamau Thugge on Wednesday. So we are now to the 2011 playbook which is to catch the portfolio inflows by hiking rates to match the Fed. US Tbond yields are coming down. Our lazy fund managers have refused to take advantage of low equity prices so let's see if foreign buyers will awaken them Quote:n their August 2023 review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) noted that the market dividend yield stood at 8.63 percent, significantly outperforming the peer average group of stock exchanges in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, which had a yield of 4.28 percent. I expect the market will be reverting to the mean(to get to the frontier market yield) so doubling of market which is much better returns than what you will get from the T-bills. Same reason that in 2011 the market ignored T-bills at 20% Market turnover yesterday was quite robust I agree with you that Kenya's export to GDP ratio has worsened, indicating that as a country we are losing competitiveness. However, a devaluation of a country's currency in the short term worsens the balance of payment. after some time the balance of payments/current account should improve. (J-curve phenomenon in economics). I saw from the mpc report that the balance of payments position in Kenya has deteriorated marginally.I suspect it should improve with time.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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I have built decent cash reserves this year, hoping to profit from market distortions like i did around 2011. However, unlike last time, TBIlls and bonds have not excited me. a lot of uncertainty on whether the WB and IMF will bail out Kenya next yr. Of course, if these 2 institutions fail to lend us the moneys we default.we can't raise the 2b dollars required. Am asking mysef why couldn't imf/WB bail out Ghana, Zambia and now Ethiopia. What's so special about Kenya? I have passed over the 18% sumptuous bonds on offer with a few regrets
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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kaifastus wrote:
I agree with you that Kenya's export to GDP ratio has worsened, indicating that as a country we are losing competitiveness. However, a devaluation of a country's currency in the short term worsens the balance of payment. after some time the balance of payments/current account should improve. (J-curve phenomenon in economics). I saw from the mpc report that the balance of payments position in Kenya has deteriorated marginally.I suspect it should improve with time.
J-curve phenomenon manenos...starving to keep fit
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:wukan wrote:My 2 cents wrote:If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now. Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments. Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up Last week was fun Too bad the sellers got exhausted on some counters Earnings reporting season coming up means only one thing
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Prices on 7th Nov 23 when NSE bottomed out
Absa touched 10.6
KCB at 15
Coop 10.2
SCBK 150
LBTY 3.63
Safcom 11.8
Bears make money
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:Prices on 7th Nov 23 when NSE bottomed out
Absa touched 10.6
KCB at 15
Coop 10.2
SCBK 150
LBTY 3.63
Safcom 11.8
Bears make money Please post EABL and BAT prices as of 7th Nov 2023 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:Prices on 7th Nov 23 when NSE bottomed out
Absa touched 10.6
KCB at 15
Coop 10.2
SCBK 150
LBTY 3.63
Safcom 11.8
Bears make money Please post EABL and BAT prices as of 7th Nov 2023 EABL 120 low 115 BAT 407.5 low 405
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Is it dividend season optimism or we are back to life? These forums were very vibrant, will we ever rise again? You could see a crowd of participants.. Are you still alive guys? 😄 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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