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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Thiong'o wrote:Xymalos wrote:wukan wrote:Market turnover was a measly 55 million. Sellers are getting exhausted...fumes really. IFB should drain liquidity next week then break some kneecaps on some stocks. NSE 20 at 1444 must bend the knee and go below 1400. Good times  NSE 20 PerformanceNSE 20 recent trading peak was Feb 2015 at 5373. Now it's at 1444, down 73%. Can we realistically expect NSE 20 to gain 73% to get back to Feb, 2015 peak? at these levels  and then privatization of state corporations Like recovery from alcoholism, it will be a long drawn out process
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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Xymalos wrote:wukan wrote:Market turnover was a measly 55 million. Sellers are getting exhausted...fumes really. IFB should drain liquidity next week then break some kneecaps on some stocks. NSE 20 at 1444 must bend the knee and go below 1400. Good times NSE 20 PerformanceNSE 20 recent trading peak was Feb 2015 at 5373. Now it's at 1444, down 73%. Can we realistically expect NSE 20 to gain 73% to get back to Feb, 2015 peak? Your math is like Nabii's math. -73% from 5373 = 1444 1444 x 173% = is not 5373 From 1444 it has to increase 300% or so to get to 5373 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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Damn! Those lows are now highs!  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/14/2015 Posts: 97 Location: Kenya
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My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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Xymalos wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65 Presumably investors bought shares not only at 2015 market tops but rather across a range of dates. For instance, I have safaricom shares I bought at 5, 2.5, 27,33, etc. NSE will come back, we just dont know when. Even the NYSE and the stocks you quote were cut in half at some point. Microsoft was cut by more than 70% during the dot com crash and only recovered after 16 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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My 2 cents wrote:Xymalos wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65 Presumably investors bought shares not only at 2015 market tops but rather across a range of dates. For instance, I have safaricom shares I bought at 5, 2.5, 27,33, etc. NSE will come back, we just dont know when. Even the NYSE and the stocks you quote were cut in half at some point. Microsoft was cut by more than 70% during the dot com crash and only recovered after 16 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NCBA wasn't listed in 2015 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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Xymalos wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65 You should adjust for bonuses/splits for some but the general point still remains valid. Invested in the NSE has destroyed wealth since 2015. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Xymalos wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65 Presumably investors bought shares not only at 2015 market tops but rather across a range of dates. For instance, I have safaricom shares I bought at 5, 2.5, 27,33, etc. NSE will come back, we just dont know when. Even the NYSE and the stocks you quote were cut in half at some point. Microsoft was cut by more than 70% during the dot com crash and only recovered after 16 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NCBA wasn't listed in 2015 He is not wrong in the sense that NIC was listed, and for holders of NIC in 2015, they still hold the same shares now known as NCBA. Perhaps a bonus or 2 were issued. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:Xymalos wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65 Presumably investors bought shares not only at 2015 market tops but rather across a range of dates. For instance, I have safaricom shares I bought at 5, 2.5, 27,33, etc. NSE will come back, we just dont know when. Even the NYSE and the stocks you quote were cut in half at some point. Microsoft was cut by more than 70% during the dot com crash and only recovered after 16 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's say we have to wait for 16 years. That at 14% on IFBs would mean the bondholder is far, far better off. Let's take the 16 years from 1 Jan 2015 then we will have done 9 years (31 Dec 2023) and have 7 more to go. The 6.5 year IFB is expected to yield a minimum of 16% which is about a 200% gain in interest income. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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VituVingiSana wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Xymalos wrote:My 2 cents wrote:Question is what do you do with this knowledge. Does one buy more at current lows or bail out? The stock exchange is the only market where buyers flee from low prices. Under normal circumstances, low prices of great companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta etc.) would be great opportunity to buy. For NSE, you have to determine which are the great companies that are low priced to buy. Sample these price changes: KCB in Jan 2015 was 58; now 16.35 NCBA in Jan 2015 was 64; now 37.15 StanChart in Jan 2015 was 339; now 155.75 Britam in Jan 2015 was 29; now 4.97 Centum in Jan 2015 was 65; now 8.35 I&M in Jan 2015 was 125; now 17.35 EQTY in Jan 2015 was 51; now 37 Absa in Jan 2015 was 16.25; now 11.45 EABL in Jan 2015 was 304; now 126 SCOM in Jan 2015 was 14; now 11.65 Presumably investors bought shares not only at 2015 market tops but rather across a range of dates. For instance, I have safaricom shares I bought at 5, 2.5, 27,33, etc. NSE will come back, we just dont know when. Even the NYSE and the stocks you quote were cut in half at some point. Microsoft was cut by more than 70% during the dot com crash and only recovered after 16 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's say we have to wait for 16 years. That at 14% on IFBs would mean the bondholder is far, far better off. Let's take the 16 years from 1 Jan 2015 then we will have done 9 years (31 Dec 2023) and have 7 more to go. The 6.5 year IFB is expected to yield a minimum of 16% which is about a 200% gain in interest income. Take it all the way back to 2009, NSE never fully recovered from GFC. We have done 14 years already. Maybe we do another 5 bear years. If most stocks double in 5 years that is 14% per year; and then add on another 10% dividends. 24% sure beats IFB. The caveat is that stocks have to double in 5 years.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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NSE 20 index at 1428...how long before we see trading halts?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:NSE 20 index at 1428...how long before we see trading halts?
Hi Wukan. Halted by who, and why
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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obiero wrote:wukan wrote:NSE 20 index at 1428...how long before we see trading halts?
Hi Wukan. Halted by who, and why Plunge protection team aka PPT used to be active before the uhuruto era/error. The good old days
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:NSE 20 index at 1428...how long before we see trading halts?
Hi Wukan. Halted by who, and why Plunge protection team aka PPT used to be active before the uhuruto era/error. The good old days Probably only on small caps. The large caps have a mind of their own
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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My 2 cents wrote:If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now. Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments. Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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wukan wrote:My 2 cents wrote:If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now. Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments. Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up I was not referring to myself. I will never sell. I would lose too much.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:wukan wrote:My 2 cents wrote:If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now. Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments. Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up I was not referring to myself. I will never sell. I would lose too much. It is time to buy
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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wukan wrote:My 2 cents wrote:If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now. Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments. Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up Last week was fun  Too bad the sellers got exhausted on some counters
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