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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Guys, i know what most of you are feeling....like shares will continue to sink forever so you are afraid to buy, right?
Well, fear not. Let's not forget the NSE 20 is at 3,500 points. 3,500! The NSE 20 was at 5400 less than 2 years ago, lets not forget that. In the previous bear market of 2011 it hit a low of about 3100. In 2008/9 it hit about 2800. If this is not the bottom it's not very far. It may take long it terms of time but in terms of further sinking we can't expect say another 50% drop.
But buying has to be selective. Take the leap of faith and buy your undervalued stocks.
The only time this feeling will go away is when it's clear to everyone that we found a bottom a while back and by then it might be too late or u will have missed some good low entry points.
#bear survival tactics It hit 2360 during the GFC. I am expecting a 50% drop from current levels...but that is no reason not to buy. Everyone has his/her own style and that is what as investors we should be refining/focusing on coz bottom fishing is not a science. In addition, all stocks wont hit the bottom at the same time. Choose your battles wisely. you beat me in pessimism, 50% further from today, a miracle. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Guys, i know what most of you are feeling....like shares will continue to sink forever so you are afraid to buy, right?
Well, fear not. Let's not forget the NSE 20 is at 3,500 points. 3,500! The NSE 20 was at 5400 less than 2 years ago, lets not forget that. In the previous bear market of 2011 it hit a low of about 3100. In 2008/9 it hit about 2800. If this is not the bottom it's not very far. It may take long it terms of time but in terms of further sinking we can't expect say another 50% drop.
But buying has to be selective. Take the leap of faith and buy your undervalued stocks.
The only time this feeling will go away is when it's clear to everyone that we found a bottom a while back and by then it might be too late or u will have missed some good low entry points.
#bear survival tactics It hit 2360 during the GFC. I am expecting a 50% drop from current levels...but that is no reason not to buy. Everyone has his/her own style and that is what as investors we should be refining/focusing on coz bottom fishing is not a science. In addition, all stocks wont hit the bottom at the same time. Choose your battles wisely. you beat me in pessimism, 50% further from today, a miracle. In deed battles are to be chosen wisely
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mlennyma wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Guys, i know what most of you are feeling....like shares will continue to sink forever so you are afraid to buy, right?
Well, fear not. Let's not forget the NSE 20 is at 3,500 points. 3,500! The NSE 20 was at 5400 less than 2 years ago, lets not forget that. In the previous bear market of 2011 it hit a low of about 3100. In 2008/9 it hit about 2800. If this is not the bottom it's not very far. It may take long it terms of time but in terms of further sinking we can't expect say another 50% drop.
But buying has to be selective. Take the leap of faith and buy your undervalued stocks.
The only time this feeling will go away is when it's clear to everyone that we found a bottom a while back and by then it might be too late or u will have missed some good low entry points.
#bear survival tactics It hit 2360 during the GFC. I am expecting a 50% drop from current levels...but that is no reason not to buy. Everyone has his/her own style and that is what as investors we should be refining/focusing on coz bottom fishing is not a science. In addition, all stocks wont hit the bottom at the same time. Choose your battles wisely. you beat me in pessimism, 50% further from today, a miracle. 50% drop is just another way of saying sub 2000. The market is going to be a very exciting place for those who keep up without despair. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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lochaz-index wrote:mlennyma wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Guys, i know what most of you are feeling....like shares will continue to sink forever so you are afraid to buy, right?
Well, fear not. Let's not forget the NSE 20 is at 3,500 points. 3,500! The NSE 20 was at 5400 less than 2 years ago, lets not forget that. In the previous bear market of 2011 it hit a low of about 3100. In 2008/9 it hit about 2800. If this is not the bottom it's not very far. It may take long it terms of time but in terms of further sinking we can't expect say another 50% drop.
But buying has to be selective. Take the leap of faith and buy your undervalued stocks.
The only time this feeling will go away is when it's clear to everyone that we found a bottom a while back and by then it might be too late or u will have missed some good low entry points.
#bear survival tactics It hit 2360 during the GFC. I am expecting a 50% drop from current levels...but that is no reason not to buy. Everyone has his/her own style and that is what as investors we should be refining/focusing on coz bottom fishing is not a science. In addition, all stocks wont hit the bottom at the same time. Choose your battles wisely. you beat me in pessimism, 50% further from today, a miracle. 50% drop is just another way of saying sub 2000. The market is going to be a very exciting place for those who keep up without despair. Kwani what will the prices be like then???  Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Othelo wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mlennyma wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Guys, i know what most of you are feeling....like shares will continue to sink forever so you are afraid to buy, right?
Well, fear not. Let's not forget the NSE 20 is at 3,500 points. 3,500! The NSE 20 was at 5400 less than 2 years ago, lets not forget that. In the previous bear market of 2011 it hit a low of about 3100. In 2008/9 it hit about 2800. If this is not the bottom it's not very far. It may take long it terms of time but in terms of further sinking we can't expect say another 50% drop.
But buying has to be selective. Take the leap of faith and buy your undervalued stocks.
The only time this feeling will go away is when it's clear to everyone that we found a bottom a while back and by then it might be too late or u will have missed some good low entry points.
#bear survival tactics It hit 2360 during the GFC. I am expecting a 50% drop from current levels...but that is no reason not to buy. Everyone has his/her own style and that is what as investors we should be refining/focusing on coz bottom fishing is not a science. In addition, all stocks wont hit the bottom at the same time. Choose your battles wisely. you beat me in pessimism, 50% further from today, a miracle. 50% drop is just another way of saying sub 2000. The market is going to be a very exciting place for those who keep up without despair. Kwani what will the prices be like then??? its will so sweet, you will ur entire clan to bankroll you into buying binge ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Guys, i know what most of you are feeling....like shares will continue to sink forever so you are afraid to buy, right?
Well, fear not. Let's not forget the NSE 20 is at 3,500 points. 3,500! The NSE 20 was at 5400 less than 2 years ago, lets not forget that. In the previous bear market of 2011 it hit a low of about 3100. In 2008/9 it hit about 2800. If this is not the bottom it's not very far. It may take long it terms of time but in terms of further sinking we can't expect say another 50% drop.
But buying has to be selective. Take the leap of faith and buy your undervalued stocks.
The only time this feeling will go away is when it's clear to everyone that we found a bottom a while back and by then it might be too late or u will have missed some good low entry points.
#bear survival tactics It hit 2360 during the GFC. I am expecting a 50% drop from current levels...but that is no reason not to buy. Everyone has his/her own style and that is what as investors we should be refining/focusing on coz bottom fishing is not a science. Besides, all stocks wont hit the bottom at the same time. Choose your battles wisely. I like that "choose your battles wisely" Very true they don't bottom at the same time. Wow 2000 even sub 3000 would be breathtaking to see. I'm targeting +200% gains next bull whenever that will be the longer bear last the longer I can buy and the rich I'll eventually be. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Interest rate cap bill signed. Perfect! Time to revive this thread... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 303
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Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant Forget about dawn,a new normal has been established with this government,chini kwa chini is the new trend so adjust accordingly.I was in denial for sometime but I have now accepted.Even seemingly good,strong and reliable stocks will plunge.At the moment you might not know why,but be guaranteed it will happen this clueless government will do something. The current events remind me of the last years of the Moi regime when the NSE was in a coma.Everything was just down it didn't matter what a company did. All these changed with the entry of Kibaki and it was like a light bulb had been switched on.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Interest rate cap bill signed. Perfect!
Time to revive this thread... When will the Interest Cap be effected? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:Interest rate cap bill signed. Perfect!
Time to revive this thread... When will the Interest Cap be effected?
Max 21 days from 24th August 2016. According to the constitution any undated act must take maximum 21 days. Within 7 days it must be gazetted and after 14 days from gazettement it becomes operational.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant Forget about dawn,a new normal has been established with this government,chini kwa chini is the new trend so adjust accordingly.I was in denial for sometime but I have now accepted.Even seemingly good,strong and reliable stocks will plunge.At the moment you might not know why,but be guaranteed it will happen this clueless government will do something. The current events remind me of the last years of the Moi regime when the NSE was in a coma.Everything was just down it didn't matter what a company did. All these changed with the entry of Kibaki and it was like a light bulb had been switched on. It is tough to stay level headed when everything else seems to be crumbling but to despair is the wrong reaction. Adapt and put every single detail into your analysis prism otherwise you will lose focus. The rate bill cap and elections are not game changers. They will definitely have an impact but they can only accelerate/put on hold what is already in play. The fairy banking tale was coming to an end whether the bill was signed or not. The same applies to real estate. The final straw is yet to land on the camel's back by way of unsustainable debt levels. Discount season is here...recalibrate accordingly. The bigger the discounts the better, time to reap will come. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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And so NSE gets its Brexit moment... This is how GFC days felt like for those that were not in the market then. Utter hopelessness as the market tanked in a bidless sea in what felt like forever! Waiting for the volume language in the next few weeks to show what the market magicians are up to. Sit tight  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 303
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lochaz-index wrote:moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant Forget about dawn,a new normal has been established with this government,chini kwa chini is the new trend so adjust accordingly.I was in denial for sometime but I have now accepted.Even seemingly good,strong and reliable stocks will plunge.At the moment you might not know why,but be guaranteed it will happen this clueless government will do something. The current events remind me of the last years of the Moi regime when the NSE was in a coma.Everything was just down it didn't matter what a company did. All these changed with the entry of Kibaki and it was like a light bulb had been switched on. It is tough to stay level headed when everything else seems to be crumbling but to despair is the wrong reaction. Adapt and put every single detail into your analysis prism otherwise you will lose focus. The rate bill cap and elections are not game changers. They will definitely have an impact but they can only accelerate/put on hold what is already in play. The fairy banking tale was coming to an end whether the bill was signed or not. The same applies to real estate. The final straw is yet to land on the camel's back by way of unsustainable debt levels. Discount season is here...recalibrate accordingly. The bigger the discounts the better, time to reap will come. Time to reap will come but not with this government.We have been talking of discounts for the last year or so,anybody who bought into this argument is probably, now, crying in the toilet.What money can be made if foreign investors are leaving the market in droves.It was already bad before the interest capping bill,with the bill we are on a different paradaigm. The basic premese of the NSE as a place to make money has changed.All we have now is chaos,uncertainty,gloom and despair affecting all categories of investors ie foreigners,local institutions,high networth individual,smalltime investor etc.For me I have recalibrated my mind and thoughts to the new normal.This trend is too powerful to ignore. IGNORE AT YOUR OWN PERIL!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant Forget about dawn,a new normal has been established with this government,chini kwa chini is the new trend so adjust accordingly.I was in denial for sometime but I have now accepted.Even seemingly good,strong and reliable stocks will plunge.At the moment you might not know why,but be guaranteed it will happen this clueless government will do something. The current events remind me of the last years of the Moi regime when the NSE was in a coma.Everything was just down it didn't matter what a company did. All these changed with the entry of Kibaki and it was like a light bulb had been switched on. It is tough to stay level headed when everything else seems to be crumbling but to despair is the wrong reaction. Adapt and put every single detail into your analysis prism otherwise you will lose focus. The rate bill cap and elections are not game changers. They will definitely have an impact but they can only accelerate/put on hold what is already in play. The fairy banking tale was coming to an end whether the bill was signed or not. The same applies to real estate. The final straw is yet to land on the camel's back by way of unsustainable debt levels. Discount season is here...recalibrate accordingly. The bigger the discounts the better, time to reap will come. Time to reap will come but not with this government.We have been talking of discounts for the last year or so,anybody who bought into this argument is probably, now, crying in the toilet.What money can be made if foreign investors are leaving the market in droves.It was already bad before the interest capping bill,with the bill we are on a different paradaigm. The basic premese of the NSE as a place to make money has changed.All we have now is chaos,uncertainty,gloom and despair affecting all categories of investors ie foreigners,local institutions,high networth individual,smalltime investor etc.For me I have recalibrated my mind and thoughts to the new normal.This trend is too powerful to ignore. IGNORE AT YOUR OWN PERIL!!! I agree. This law will trigger a domino effect across the economy. When USDKES start shooting upwards as foreigners buy back dollars those forex losses will hit hard on companies earnings that were already struggling with the high rates. CBK only has enough muscle to shore up the liquidity then we revisit those days of rise in diesel prices and matatu fares etc etc. when kamwana listens to Waititu, Duale and co. over his well learned appointees at treasury and cbk, you have a recipe for disaster brewing in the economy KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mkate_nusu wrote:moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant Forget about dawn,a new normal has been established with this government,chini kwa chini is the new trend so adjust accordingly.I was in denial for sometime but I have now accepted.Even seemingly good,strong and reliable stocks will plunge.At the moment you might not know why,but be guaranteed it will happen this clueless government will do something. The current events remind me of the last years of the Moi regime when the NSE was in a coma.Everything was just down it didn't matter what a company did. All these changed with the entry of Kibaki and it was like a light bulb had been switched on. It is tough to stay level headed when everything else seems to be crumbling but to despair is the wrong reaction. Adapt and put every single detail into your analysis prism otherwise you will lose focus. The rate bill cap and elections are not game changers. They will definitely have an impact but they can only accelerate/put on hold what is already in play. The fairy banking tale was coming to an end whether the bill was signed or not. The same applies to real estate. The final straw is yet to land on the camel's back by way of unsustainable debt levels. Discount season is here...recalibrate accordingly. The bigger the discounts the better, time to reap will come. Time to reap will come but not with this government.We have been talking of discounts for the last year or so,anybody who bought into this argument is probably, now, crying in the toilet.What money can be made if foreign investors are leaving the market in droves.It was already bad before the interest capping bill,with the bill we are on a different paradaigm. The basic premese of the NSE as a place to make money has changed.All we have now is chaos,uncertainty,gloom and despair affecting all categories of investors ie foreigners,local institutions,high networth individual,smalltime investor etc.For me I have recalibrated my mind and thoughts to the new normal.This trend is too powerful to ignore. IGNORE AT YOUR OWN PERIL!!! I agree. This law will trigger a domino effect across the economy. When USDKES start shooting upwards as foreigners buy back dollars those forex losses will hit hard on companies earnings that were already struggling with the high rates. CBK only has enough muscle to shore up the liquidity then we revisit those days of rise in diesel prices and matatu fares etc etc. when kamwana listens to Waititu, Duale and co. over his well learned appointees at treasury and cbk, you have a recipe for disaster brewing in the economy Those effects of KE shilling depreciation will not hold for long. The economy is set to stabilize faster as banking stocks keep bleeding. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:No no, we are not feeling like shares will never stop sinking. We are feeling like we are sinking into a dark hole. Have heard of the Bermuda triangle Take heart brother, it's darkest before the dawn. Plan to plant Forget about dawn,a new normal has been established with this government,chini kwa chini is the new trend so adjust accordingly.I was in denial for sometime but I have now accepted.Even seemingly good,strong and reliable stocks will plunge.At the moment you might not know why,but be guaranteed it will happen this clueless government will do something. The current events remind me of the last years of the Moi regime when the NSE was in a coma.Everything was just down it didn't matter what a company did. All these changed with the entry of Kibaki and it was like a light bulb had been switched on. It is tough to stay level headed when everything else seems to be crumbling but to despair is the wrong reaction. Adapt and put every single detail into your analysis prism otherwise you will lose focus. The rate bill cap and elections are not game changers. They will definitely have an impact but they can only accelerate/put on hold what is already in play. The fairy banking tale was coming to an end whether the bill was signed or not. The same applies to real estate. The final straw is yet to land on the camel's back by way of unsustainable debt levels. Discount season is here...recalibrate accordingly. The bigger the discounts the better, time to reap will come. Time to reap will come but not with this government.We have been talking of discounts for the last year or so,anybody who bought into this argument is probably, now, crying in the toilet.What money can be made if foreign investors are leaving the market in droves.It was already bad before the interest capping bill,with the bill we are on a different paradaigm. The basic premese of the NSE as a place to make money has changed.All we have now is chaos,uncertainty,gloom and despair affecting all categories of investors ie foreigners,local institutions,high networth individual,smalltime investor etc.For me I have recalibrated my mind and thoughts to the new normal.This trend is too powerful to ignore. IGNORE AT YOUR OWN PERIL!!! I must say I love the current market/social mood. Been waiting for it. Wanjiku is baying for the bankers' blood...if the same plays out vs the govt then we are going to have a party. It is imperative to work with the worst case scenario. That way nothing catches you by surprise. Those who dived in headlong without a plan got their fingers burnt. My take is this will go all the way to sub 2000 as I have stated repeatedly. A stealth bear is all the more devastating. Change of government will not stem the tide. The wash out has to complete and afford the economy a squeaky clean foundation. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Liv wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:Interest rate cap bill signed. Perfect!
Time to revive this thread... When will the Interest Cap be effected?
Max 21 days from 24th August 2016. According to the constitution any undated act must take maximum 21 days. Within 7 days it must be gazetted and after 14 days from gazettement it becomes operational. Asante! Should I expect to start paying the lower rate from 15 Sep? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:Liv wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:Interest rate cap bill signed. Perfect!
Time to revive this thread... When will the Interest Cap be effected?
Max 21 days from 24th August 2016. According to the constitution any undated act must take maximum 21 days. Within 7 days it must be gazetted and after 14 days from gazettement it becomes operational. Asante! Should I expect to start paying the lower rate from 15 Sep? That Lehman bros lights out date... Spooky  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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