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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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That is to say, how to know that the bear is about to go into hibernation after having its fill. 1. When all the media both print and TV don't bother reporting anything on the business news. 2. When media & wanjiku concentrate on the bearish bluechips especially KQ, Safcom, Equity and EABL. 3. When politics hits fever pitch. Then and only then, start getting in slowly... And watch the volume spikes start to build up as the smart money buys the fear and blood on the streets... However, if we get another GFC and the whole world feels like it is ending, wait for the Fed banks signal to re-inflate aka print the dollars like a wild hog. This should work out like March 2009... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Soon there will be a convergence that things are cheap, "then fools rush in"
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 970 Location: Home
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2010 Posts: 519 Location: nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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@Hisah, maybe a could add some............ 4) When the market is forced to open late or close early because of a "technical error in the ATS" - This happened in Jan 2009! 5) When brokers take it upon themselves to call their clients/emailing them buy proposals of some specific stocks and urging them to take the plunge citing IT'S TIME TO BUY! 6) When a day passes and not a single thread or post has been made here in Wazua! 7) When u visit the brokers office and you are the only client. - I saw this in Oct 2008 and Mar 2009 when the index sank to 3,300 and 2,300 respectively! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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@Hisah, maybe a could add some............ 4) When the market is forced to open late or close early because of a "technical error in the ATS" - This happened in Jan 2009! 5) When brokers take it upon themselves to call their clients/emailing them buy proposals of some specific stocks and urging them to take the plunge citing IT'S TIME TO BUY! 6) When a day passes and not a single thread or post has been made here in Wazua! 7) When u visit the brokers office and you are the only client. - I saw this in Oct 2008 and Mar 2009 when the index sank to 3,300 and 2,300 respectively! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. So true. When the media reports things like, 'stocks as no longer good investment' 'n.s.e no longer profitable' The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,050 Location: Nairobi
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When (not if) the property market slows down... the cash will look for a new place... where do you think that will be? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:@Hisah, maybe a could add some............
4) When the market is forced to open late or
close early because of a "technical error in
the ATS"
- This happened in Jan 2009!
5) When brokers take it upon themselves to call
their clients/emailing them buy proposals of
some specific stocks and urging them to take
the plunge citing IT'S TIME TO BUY!
6) When a day passes and not a single thread or
post has been made here in Wazua!
7) When u visit the brokers office and you are
the only client.
- I saw this in Oct 2008 and Mar 2009 when the
index sank to 3,300 and 2,300 respectively!
Ah, you bring back the memories of ATS running out of gas during 10% across market falls. Those were the days in early 2009. Ulcers central kabisa...
And the best point 7 then 5. Being a buyer then & brokers would treat you like a god. And they'd engage you in endless chat since the chances of seeing another client was rare. I called that period the stock market rapture and somehow the broker & myself were left behind 
I'm sure if that dealer reads this part she'll remember that conversation...
Those were good times?! At the risk of being smoked by some wazuans for saying that
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:@Hisah, maybe a could add some............
4) When the market is forced to open late or
close early because of a "technical error in
the ATS"
- This happened in Jan 2009!
5) When brokers take it upon themselves to call
their clients/emailing them buy proposals of
some specific stocks and urging them to take
the plunge citing IT'S TIME TO BUY!
6) When a day passes and not a single thread or
post has been made here in Wazua!
7) When u visit the brokers office and you are
the only client.
- I saw this in Oct 2008 and Mar 2009 when the
index sank to 3,300 and 2,300 respectively!
Ah, you bring back the memories of ATS running out of gas during 10% across market falls. Those were the days in early 2009. Ulcers central kabisa...
And the best point 7 then 5. Being a buyer then & brokers would treat you like a god. And they'd engage you in endless chat since the chances of seeing another client was rare. I called that period the stock market rapture and somehow the broker & myself were left behind
I'm sure if that dealer reads this part she'll remember that conversation...
Those were good times?! At the risk of being smoked by some wazuans for saying that
When inflation stabilises/eases When elections are very near (if no violence occurs ofcourse) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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once a President elect is declared following a peaceful 2012 run-off...
meanwhile double digit inflation, slowed economic growth, lower tax collected & company earnings, Eurozone crisis, weak KSH, ICC indictments, succession politics, famine etc will continue to rear its ugly head on the NSE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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When the number of new lows starts reducing... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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I get worried when the market goes on a ten-day consecutive losing streak. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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@ Sober - Let the half year results start flowing in and we will see the market roaring again.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I'm invested, but i love what is happening to the n.s.e. Why? Its an opportunity to buy, and by 2013, which ever way elections go the market will recover. Like last time, besides, i'm rather optimistic of a peaceful election. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Today I have placed a major bet on a turnaround in the market. My first tranche of funds was deployed as follows:
1.KK @ 10.50
2.Equity Bank @ 23
3.CoopBank @ 14.90
4.East African Cables - between 11.50 & 11.90
The last is purely speculative on account of improved results and the TCL listing. As for the others, I believe they are good counters which have been oversold on account of market pessimism.
Now I wait to see whether this was a foolhardy or an inspired decision.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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mwanahisa wrote:Today I have placed a major bet on a turnaround in the market. My first tranche of funds was deployed as follows:
1.KK @ 10.50
2.Equity Bank @ 23
3.CoopBank @ 14.90
4.East African Cables - between 11.50 & 11.90
The last is purely speculative on account of improved results and the TCL listing. As for the others, I believe they are good counters which have been oversold on account of market pessimism.
Now I wait to see whether this was a foolhardy or an inspired decision. I always envy Carbacid (i don't know why), i am also buying more of safcon (but stepwise i.e. weekly). Now, am never a fan of banks and insurance sectors neither am i in agrics. For me, services and industrial are my stocks! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Carbacid at 111/- today i consider it very cheap. It's a really good buy right now.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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FUNKY wrote:Carbacid at 111/- today i consider it very cheap. It's a really good buy right now. Actually, someone has just scooped it at 110. I tried 3 times to pick it at 121 (4weeks ago) but zote i missed. Labda ni mungu hataki au ananiwekea ninyakue zikiwa 100. Just like Kapchorua, i scooped it at 103, now its at 133, but they are difficult to sell, those agrics are bad! They need to be bought in hundreds not thousands! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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hahaha dunkang...right..some agri shares need to be bought in hundreds only...
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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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