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These NSE shares have the X-Factor
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 3:44:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I was reading the article below:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42974607

In the article, Jim Cramer is quoted saying that just like in Talent Competitions, winning stocks can have the "X-factor" too. Cramer says "There's something that can't be quantified that makes us want to pick this or that stock no matter what and keep paying up for it," He added that this is over and above good numbers and beating earnings estimates, although these are essential. A lot of Tech shares in the U.S. market have certainly enjoyed this e.g. Google, Apple, Amazon & Intel.

This got me thinking that some shares on the NSE have indeed exhibited some of this in the past while others are still in this zone. It is worth noting these shares can however lose the X-Factor and stagnate or plunge.

For those that have done so in the past, I think a good example is East African Cables.

Others that appear to still be enjoying this X-Factor coolness on the NSE include Scangroup, Athi River Mining, & Equity Bank (& CIC although not yet listed is quickly joing this list). What do you guys think and which would be your picks going forward?
Iborian
#2 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 4:12:54 PM
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Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
True dat @Mwanahisa. But JM's shop seems to have lost some of its swag. It is now trading at a similar forward PE with its lesser peers.
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 4:32:26 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Iborian. Many a commentator has counted Equity out only to have the smirk wiped off their faces. In 2011, so far, Equity has reported the highest PBT and PAT plus the fastest growth in profits of the listed banks that have reported.

I suspect that BBK is busy making ammendments to their report to just pip Equity. But they can't keep doing it for ever.

If anything, KCB should the biggest on the profits front but KCB is like a recovering punch drunk heavyweight boxer while Equity is like an ultra fit Middleweight that has been fighting in the Heavyweight division for so long that the real heavyweight contenders forgot just how nimble the "small heavyweight" Equity can be. And BTW, I own both, so I should know!

As a consequence the Equity share price always comes back to a superior PE ratio in comparison to the rest. The market just wants to confirm that Equity will repeat this feat in Q2.
Renegade
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 4:56:11 PM
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Joined: 4/18/2009
Posts: 118
@MH, Looks like none of the value shares guys on this forum talk about are included. I am thinking of such counters like Breweries, Centum, Jubilee, KCB etc. Why?

Also what do you think of the coming new kid kid on the block - Britak, now that James Mwangi is in it?
Obi 1 Kanobi
#5 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 5:49:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
mwanahisa wrote:
@Iborian. Many a commentator has counted Equity out only to have the smirk wiped off their faces. In 2011, so far, Equity has reported the highest PBT and PAT plus the fastest growth in profits of the listed banks that have reported.

I suspect that BBK is busy making ammendments to their report to just pip Equity. But they can't keep doing it for ever.

If anything, KCB should the biggest on the profits front but KCB is like a recovering punch drunk heavyweight boxer while Equity is like an ultra fit Middleweight that has been fighting in the Heavyweight division for so long that the real heavyweight contenders forgot just how nimble the "small heavyweight" Equity can be. And BTW, I own both, so I should know!
As a consequence the Equity share price always comes back to a superior PE ratio in comparison to the rest. The market just wants to confirm that Equity will repeat this feat in Q2.


What are the basis for your conclusions for these two. Reminds me of lie repeated over and over till people start believing it as true. KCB and equity are almost identical in size (consider results, staff numbers and branch networks), however KCB has more assets due to the time it has been around to accumulate it.

Equity is a good bank, but KCB is a steady and proving to be better as time goes by.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
mwanahisa
#6 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 6:12:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
What are the basis for your conclusions for these two. Reminds me of lie repeated over and over till people start believing it as true. KCB and equity are almost identical in size (consider results, staff numbers and branch networks), however KCB has more assets due to the time it has been around to accumulate it.

Equity is a good bank, but KCB is a steady and proving to be better as time goes by.


Indeed KCB is improving but Equity still beats it on most metrics other than total assets and capitalization.

I like KCB for stability and I keep hoping that it will indeed step up to where it should be. But Equity just keeps on getting ahead. Having said that I have done very well by buying into KCB starting with the rights last year. This was for the reason that it was undervalued by the market for a long time.

If we go by the performance trajectory of the two banks in the last 5 years and extrapolate future performance on the basis of the most recent presentations from the two respective CEOs, I would bet on Equity still being ahead of KCB in 5 years time. I stopped adding to my KCB position at about Kshs 23 but now that the market is valuing both KCB and Equity at the Kshs 25 - 26 level, I am now adding on to Equity. Note, this is not however by selling KCB. I may consider selling KCB depending on Q2 numbers and the share price at that point in time.
Mainat
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 6:14:37 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Centum; HFCK
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Iborian
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 6:26:54 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
Mainat wrote:
Centum; HFCK


Kwa nini?

HF lost its swag way back after Trans Century tried and failed in their bid to buy off the CDC shares. The price shot up like it had a torpedo up its backside from about 10 to 70 if I remember right.

No way can it get back on the fast lane. Not on the current evidence. It needs to think a lot BIGGER. May be if the Chinese buy into it....
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 6:34:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mwanahisa. My thoughts exactly bout equity and kcb, id me more comfortable to buy equity now at 25.00 than kcb at 25.00. I plan to buy into both at the right price. Kcb id be comfortable with 23-24, if it will ever come back. The other is co-op which at 17.50-16.60, id be happy to hold for a while.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwanahisa
#10 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 6:46:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Interestingly no one has commented on ARM or on Scangroup. All these shares trade at a premium over most other shares on the NSE when compared on the basis of PEs, profit growth, DPS.

Note that I was trying to bring out those qualities in a share that seem to command a certain "charisma" or some other enigmatic quality that keeps investors focused on them to the exclusion of other shares with somewhat similar qualities.

For a long time KCB certainly didn't fit this bill but that seems to be changing somewhat. As @Aguytrying has noted, KCB has never really filled me with excitement. I buy it but not at a premium unlike say ARM where I would willingly pay 155 again which is a PE of 18 or so and with a dividend of almost nothing. I have also bought Equity in the past at historical PEs of over 20 and made very good returns. I would not dare do on KCB, at least not yet!
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