wazua Fri, Mar 20, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

372 Pages«<9495969798>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
VituVingiSana
#951 Posted : Friday, October 09, 2015 11:30:43 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
kryptonite wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why are folks trying to 'time the market' ... Warren Buffett doesn't believe in timing the market as much as buying value & he has done very well. Timing the market is always attractive when looked at in hindsight.

He is good at what he knows best.We can't all be Warren Buffetts.One has to know what they are in the market for and try find their own best way in navigating it, to achieve their end.

WB advises us lesser mortals not to bother with timing the market. If WB with all his knowledge and market savvy (gathered over 70 years) cannot time the market, how can we? Food for thought.


I like the way he says it doesn't matter whether it's an election year or any other funny signs.
I'm being guided by my valuations.... But it's tempting to time, won't play that game this time round

Yes. WB looks at it from very interesting (& sensible) perspectives.
1) Don't just buy shares, buy a piece of the company i.e. would you buy the entire company at this price? If yes, buy. If no, then do not.
2) Buy shares in a company if you don't mind owning the shares if the market shuts down for 10 years. Even though I hope KK is taken over, I do not mind buying KK at 9/- to hold for the next 10 years.
3) He doesn't look for turnarounds. He buys management i.e. if he doesn't trust the management, he doesn't buy. He doesn't want to try to change the management. He wants a good and trustworthy management. Today, that criterion has eliminated HAFR, OCH, NBK, KQ, Sameer, Eveready, etc from my list.
4) Timing doesn't work for most people. We never get in at the lowest price nor get out at the highest price. Just get in when there's a discount. Socks or stocks are best bought at a discount. He isn't a seller so I don't know what he says about bailing out. Recently, he sold Tesco as well as shares in some oil firms.


He sold Tesco based on Point 3 above, management issues. There was an accounting scandal and a restating of profits.
Yes. He said as much. He doesn't shy away from selling if need be.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
  |
instinct
#952 Posted : Friday, October 09, 2015 3:51:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Today we've definitely hit sub 4000 i believe
Back to top
  |
snipermnoma
#953 Posted : Friday, October 09, 2015 5:06:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
instinct wrote:
Today we've definitely hit sub 4000 i believe


4,017.34 is the close today. All gains from Nov 2012 to date erased, that is 3yrs worth of gains! For the long term guys...ouch!
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Friday, October 09, 2015 5:09 PM | Reason: Not specified
instinct
#954 Posted : Friday, October 09, 2015 6:00:39 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
snipermnoma wrote:
instinct wrote:
Today we've definitely hit sub 4000 i believe


4,017.34 is the close today. All gains from Nov 2012 to date erased, that is 3yrs worth of gains! For the long term guys...ouch!


its crazy i tell you.
Back to top
  |
Angelica _ann
#955 Posted : Friday, October 09, 2015 6:07:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
instinct wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
instinct wrote:
Today we've definitely hit sub 4000 i believe


4,017.34 is the close today. All gains from Nov 2012 to date erased, that is 3yrs worth of gains! For the long term guys...ouch!


its crazy i tell you.

Long long term is normally a tuff affair!!! Lock in gains at dome mid term interval!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Back to top
  |
snipermnoma
#956 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 5:36:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
This thing of number of banks and interest rates is taking another twist. There are two opposing narratives.
About 2 months ago we had this http://www.businessdaily.../-/jwxhioz/-/index.html
which led to this http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/9s458kz/-/index.html
Now we have this http://www.theeastafrica...1/-/4kxtek/-/index.html
So which move will lead to lower rates? Having fewer banks or many banks?
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#957 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 6:33:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
NSE 20 Share Index Elliott Waves

Welcome guys so that we look at the latest Elliott Wave action in the Index.



From our Long Term Chart we can state with confidence that we have a strong resistance (TOP) at 5499.64 marking the end of wave (B). From that Mar.'15 top we have had a drop that labels nicely as an impulse 'green' wave 1. What's more, evidence suggests that the correction for this wave 1 (i.e wave 2) is almost complete and we should brace for another round of selling soon.

Remember we are in October, the month when some of the worst stock market crashes have occurred. I believe it is suicidal holding any long positions in this market.

Discussion for impulse wave 1 (in green) follows shortly.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#958 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 6:51:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


The Impulsive drop in the NSE 20 Share Index. Notice that blue wave [ i ] is extended (meaning it is longer than waves [ iii ] and [ v ]). The five wave subdivisions in wave [ iii ] are quite clear.

Notice also that blue wave [ ii ] retraced a very small portion of wave [ i ]. This is important because as wave 2 develops, we should expect it to similarly retrace a small portion of wave 1. We discuss targets for wave 2 below. Meanwhile, as can be seen from the labelling, wave 2 is likely tracing out an Expanded Flat whereby waves [ a ] and [ b ] should be complete. I expect wave [ c ] to end quite soon and we resume intense selling. If the index does not rise above wave [ a ] and instead continues strongly below 4000 then we'll be having a series waves 1,2 1,2 developing. We'll update as the situation warrants.

A discussion of the flat (Notice the red arrow in the lower right corner of the chart) follows.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#959 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 8:13:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The Expanded Flat Wave 2 in the NSE 20 Share Index



After hitting a low of 4080.83, the Index rose in a clear three wave pattern making 'blue' wave [ a ]. The wave [ a ] is composed of waves (a) (b) and (c). Notice that wave (c) subdivides into five waves as expected of C waves (i.e Up, Down, Up, Down and a final Up move).

'Blue' wave [ b ] is also a three wave affair upto the 4017.34 low. I expect the Index to start rising imediately towards the area marked 'Target' before falling strongly in wave 3.

In an Expanded flat we expect wave [ b ] to end once wave [ b ] is 1.236 X Wave [ a ]. The extreme for wave [ b ] can be 1.382 X wave [ a ]. Below we check if this guideline has been followed.

Wave [ a ] = (4257.27 - 4080.83) = 176.44

1.236 X wave [ a ] = (1.236 X 176.44) = 218.08

1.382 X wave [ a ] = (1.382 X 176.44) = 243.84

Subtracting the above two values from 4257.27 (the end of wave [ a ] ) we'll be able to get the range for the expected end of wave [ b ]. Thus:

(4257.27 - 218.08) = 4039.19

(4257.27 - 243.84) = 4013.43

So at 4017.34 (as on 9th October, 2015) is well within the range for wave [ b ]. This is the reason why I expect the Index to start rising immediately from 12th October.


Using 4017.34 as the end of wave [ b ] we can target the end of 'blue' wave [ c ] which will also mark the end of 'green' wave 2.

[ c ] waves of flats are usually Equal to wave [ a ]; 1.618 X wave [ a ]; Twice wave [ a ] or 2.618 x wave [ a ]. Once we get these values we add them to 4017.34 (our likely end of wave [ b ] to get the end of wave [ c ].

Targets:

1. (4017.34 + (1 X 176.44)) = 4193.78

2. (4017.34 + (1.618 X 176.)) = 4302.82

3. (4017.34 + (2 X 176.44)) = 4370.22

4. (4017.34 + (2.618 X 176.44)) = 4479.26

Option 4 is very likely since that level would also meet the guideline of depth of corrective waves. i.e that is the area of the previous fourth wave (wave [ iv ]) stated as: Corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.

Summary:


NSE 20 share Index should rise imediately to about 4500 and then drop dramatically.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#960 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 8:35:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why are folks trying to 'time the market' ... Warren Buffett doesn't believe in timing the market as much as buying value & he has done very well. Timing the market is always attractive when looked at in hindsight.

He is good at what he knows best.We can't all be Warren Buffetts.One has to know what they are in the market for and try find their own best way in navigating it, to achieve their end.

WB advises us lesser mortals not to bother with timing the market. If WB with all his knowledge and market savvy (gathered over 70 years) cannot time the market, how can we? Food for thought.


I like the way he says it doesn't matter whether it's an election year or any other funny signs.
I'm being guided by my valuations.... But it's tempting to time, won't play that game this time round

Yes. WB looks at it from very interesting (& sensible) perspectives.
1) Don't just buy shares, buy a piece of the company i.e. would you buy the entire company at this price? If yes, buy. If no, then do not.
2) Buy shares in a company if you don't mind owning the shares if the market shuts down for 10 years. Even though I hope KK is taken over, I do not mind buying KK at 9/- to hold for the next 10 years.
3) He doesn't look for turnarounds. He buys management i.e. if he doesn't trust the management, he doesn't buy. He doesn't want to try to change the management. He wants a good and trustworthy management. Today, that criterion has eliminated HAFR, OCH, NBK, KQ, Sameer, Eveready, etc from my list.
4) Timing doesn't work for most people. We never get in at the lowest price nor get out at the highest price. Just get in when there's a discount. Socks or stocks are best bought at a discount. He isn't a seller so I don't know what he says about bailing out. Recently, he sold Tesco as well as shares in some oil firms.


Warren Buffet is the lucky star of a strong bull market in the USA since the 1982 low in the DOW. The prediction for that bull market is found in the 'Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behaviour'. The guy is going to get hurt in the Bear that has started. Simply put, if you are long a market that is trending up, you win. Notice that Warren Buffet's holdings have been long term ( years on the long side). In a strong bull market the majority of stocks rise, so if you hold long enough you win. This is where the crazy idea of buying for the long term comes from.

Even people who bought Safaricom during the IPO and did not sell can be considered savvy investors taken from this perspective. Safcom has started a bear market (I discuss this in a post below). There are two scenarios for those who will hold through the bear. Either they get out at the depths of the bear and lose or they hold for years ahead and they both lose and win simultaneously. They lose because they could Take Profit now, enjoy the proceeds and use some of it to re-enter the market at a bottom. They win because Safcom is expected to rise multiple times the present value. This is where timing is of the essence i.e when do you buy, when do you sell. Elliott Wave Principle is valuable as a timing tool.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
372 Pages«<9495969798>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.