Bigchick wrote:murchr wrote:Why are we taking the US numbers as a weekness? The number just shows the capacity to test patients. The numbers also show that the majority of the patients are in NY and NJ. The 2 cities are major tourist destinations for Chinese and secondly their use of mass transportation accelerated the community spread. They are not struggling but overwhelmed. Also, the US donated most of its PPE to China in February, if only they knew what they know now.
Another thing, if you believe the Chinese numbers you are easily fooled. How countries handle wave 2 will determine everything
Did anybody say or suggest America is weak?No they are not.Its just that they are the mighty America and this was not expected to happen to them.
What is the difference between struggling and being overwhelmed?
What are the actual/near actual numbers in China and why do you believe they lied?How big are the margins of lies?
Looks like you have started your journey towards being a Doomsday Prophet.Now we have a wave 2 to come?
I will help you try to answer yourself with questions.
First let me give you a scenario. Its christmas/holiday time in busy Wuhan City of China. 11million people are busy living their life during the winter of 2019. It is common that during winter respiratory deceases/alergies/flu/common cold are a norm. Actually when one coughs no one cares, its just a cough. Then massive numbers of people start appearing in hospitals...the doctors through their "whatsapp group"(just for drama purposes Whatsapp is not used in China) start discussing of how people from a certain part or town are having symptoms and dropping dead...they inform the govt who ignore them (they all died by the way)...then people continue to go to work etc and the thing spreads and spreads...by the time the national govt takes note, morgues are ordering urns by the 5000s. Then they impose a lockdown after enough cries from Wuhan residents who believe the local (Kanju just like Sonko's govt) doesnt care about them and the National govt takes over. They begin counting those in hospitals. That is dec 31...Those who died prior to that are ignored. Morgues are asked to work 19hrs a day as the rest of the country goes home. Rich wuhan residents have taken their trips europe, to US, some to australia...after all, they want to chop that money, Chinese NY is around the corner. By the way, Americans were waiting for it, Trump may not have believed that the disease was real but Governors knew it would come...PS they kept saying Ebola got to America why not Corona. Subsequent messages here are referring US as weak
1. So given the authoritarian tendencies of China govt ... give us your rough estimate by 31 Dec? Even as late as Jan11 - 17 Wuhan authorities were reporting that there are no new cases...do you believe that? . Compare Wuhan, to Nairobi...what do you think? By the way, according to the websites China reported the first case in Jan 10
2. Struggling = Cannot get tests and people are dropping dead in the streets. Overwhelmed - The number of those termed to be sick is too high such that the govt has to increase capacity eg build a hospital but the sick will still get treatment. If the disease spread to Africa in the same way it did in NY you would understand what struggling means.
3. Be ready for wave 2. China is reporting that those who recovered are getting the disease back. More importantly, Australia will serve as an example as they will be getting to winter soon.
Highlights to expect in US this week....its going to be TOUGH with more people dying - you may ask why are so many dying- lifestyle diseases...a majority of those dying have pre existing conditions esp diabetes which is chronic in the US.
Given what scientist from elsewhere in the world now know transmission rate, the ability for the diseased droplets to be aerosol, the incubation period, and the fact that it takes roughly 2-14 days for symptoms to manifest to chronic, then there's so much that China lied about.
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"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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