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Effective duration and Convexity of bonds
Scooby
#81 Posted : Monday, November 15, 2010 11:16:20 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Polymer1,

I dont think the Kenyan fixed income market is that specialised. The main driving force is the level of budget financing...and the actions by the financing agent for the government, CBK.

CBK has for the past three years tried to encourage retail investors to participate in primary treasury bonds auctions. But all the time I hear their participation in any issue is that retail investors bought less than 5% of the bond....and that was the same with the KenGen PIBO!

I do agree with you that there is some aspects of information that NSE provides regarding bond transactions is either scanty or wrong.

When you have a moment, try to recompute the yields and/or clean prices provided by NSE in their daily trading report. You will notice the numbers don't make sense at all...at least that's what I have seen for the past couple of months.
Scubidu
#82 Posted : Friday, December 17, 2010 10:57:46 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scooby. As expected useless CFC need to raise capital to expand their balance sheet but it's not core capital their raising which makes no sense. They need to have a rights issue.

The want to issue a fixed note, subordinate I think, for four years. Basel II doesn't allow them to do this for capital purposes (refer to post 44). Why has it been approved?

Why not take short term loan capital from Standard Bank SA?

Read more:

http://in.reuters.com/ar...le/idINLDE6BG03220101217
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#83 Posted : Monday, December 20, 2010 5:44:13 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

In coming up with core or Tier I capital, all banks are required to deduct their carrying value of all investments (whether they are subsidiaries or associated companies) in non-bank financial institutions.

For CfCStanbic bank, it means that they have to deduct about Kshs. 410 million as at 30 June 2010 as compared to Kshs. 338 million in December 2009. So, if these investments continue to be profitable, the banks will be required to continually reduce their Tier I capital as the carrying value of their investments will keep rising.

The deductions also mean that the bank is forced to restrict growing its balance sheet (both assets and liabilities) by about Kshs. 5 billion. Hence, it makes sense (at least for me) for the bank to spin off its insurance subsidiary, which I thought was supposed to be concluded sometime in the year.

Correct me if am wrong, but I thought that the rationale for the bank issuing the second tranche is to prevent the bank from breaching the minimum level of Tier I capital to deposits ratio of 8% (as of September 2010, the actual ratio is 8.6%). The proceeds of the bond would then allow the bank to “continue” growing its balance sheet as they limit the level of deposits it can take.

Going forward, if the bank is able to complete the spin off of CfC Insurance Holdings sometime in 2011, there should be no worries about the bank worrying about this and the future impact of the subordinated debt, which I’ll explain below…

Another thing to note is that banks are allowed to recognise their entire amount of subordinated debt (as part of Tier II capital) as if the duration of the bond is greater than or equal to five years. For any bond durations lower than five years are pro rated at 20% intervals. In this case, CfC Stanbic will be required to only recognise Kshs. 2 billion and not Kshs 2.5 billion (assuming the entire issue is fully subscribed) in 2010.

In 2011 and each financial year end thereafter, they will be reducing their Tier II capital by Kshs. 500 million per annum.

Hope this helps
Scubidu
#84 Posted : Tuesday, December 21, 2010 9:52:57 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Thanks Scoobs.

You've cleared up a lot. Yes, I agree with you on Tier 1 deductions and the spinning-off of the insurance business, also on the balance sheet growth (excellent points).

I wondered why Standard Bank SA didn't provide STanbic with temp loan capital when Stanbic inherited CFC's deposit base. If banks like Barclays can raise loan capital at 2.3% instead of 10.3% then it wud sound viable.

The problem I have with the rationale for the issue is that Tier 1 is permanent capital. They already had a surplus of 470bp on capital adequacy but only 60bp on core capital. Term debt whether senior or subordinate isn't permanent (it's a bond that'll mature) so it seems its more motivated for liquidity purposes than capital support.

So I guess it just means that they'll be having some sort of rights issue if they want to expand their balance sheet. But if the priority is not growing deposits then they'll have to incurr higher operating expenses and keep tapping into money markets.

Cheers bro.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#85 Posted : Tuesday, December 21, 2010 4:40:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I read somewhere,about a month ago, that the parent bank (i.e. Standard Bank SA) is having issues of their own...I read recently that they are planning to retrench some staff in South Africa since they are not performing as expected.

So, there is a slim chance that they would have helped CfCStanbic with a direct loan or preference shares. Also, be on the lookout for such restructuring to affect their Kenyan subsidiary.

Your argument about term debt is precisely what Angela Merkel has been saying this year...that debt holders should start bearing some of the risk of financial loss as shareholders. And as a result, Ireland had to take this approach following the IMF bailout.

Also, you are not alone in being confused about capital adequacy and core capital. Basel is hoping that Basel III will address that. It seeks to ensure that majority of the capital is indeed Tier I capital (or core capital as per CBK's definition) and not Tier II or even worse, Tier III capital.

Regards
Scubidu
#86 Posted : Tuesday, January 04, 2011 11:37:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scooby. Trust your doing well bro. Happy 2011. Any chance that subordinate debt will be included in tier 1 capital? A source tells me that might be a proposal ... an amendment to the banking act. It's also the reason I think CFC issued the bond as they did. Although looking at the 2008 financial crisis and the basel reforms to stabilise the banking system; it makes no sense.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#87 Posted : Wednesday, January 05, 2011 7:13:27 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

Happy New Year to you as well!

The way I understand the Kenyan legislative framework is that the Banking Act stipulates the minimum level of capital that banks are required to maintain. The Act is quite vague as to what constitutes core capital of Kshs 350 million which will later increase to Kshs. 1 billion as at 31 December 2012 (I got this details from the Second Schedule of the Act).

Hence, the prudential guidelines that the CBK issued in 2006 provide in detail as to what a bank can state as Tier I (core capital) or Tier II capital (supplementary capital)...see pages 57 or 58 of the link below. Also, remember that the guidelines are in compliance with the current Basel requirements.

So, going as per the CBK/Basel principles, I highly doubt that they would include subordinated debt as part of Tier I capital. However, given the way our MPs are behaving, they could be easily decide to include it in the Act riding on the vagueness of the Act.

And I'll be curious as to how the banking industry will react to such an amendment as it will definitely result in a conflict between our legislation and the Basel principles assuming they are not the ones pushing for this.

Hope this makes sense to you...and let me know if it will ease your confusion.

Regards

Here is the link - http://www.centralbank.g...ial_guidelines_2006.pdf
Scubidu
#88 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 2:28:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Thanks scoobs. As usual I appreciate your patience (you'd make a great lecturer).

From informal conversations ive concluded four reasons for issuing the CFC bond namely:
(1) Liquidity
(2) Capital
(3) Matching Liabilities, and;
(4) Banking sector reform.

All of them don't pan out. If it's banking reforms, as you said, it's unlikely the inconsistencies between banking laws and basel will be torrelated. If it's capital, they have adequate supplementary capital and would be back in the market this year propping up tier 1.

If its liquidity and matching liabilities, equity financing would have achieved that as well. Besides they had liquidity ratios above 40% and cash ratio above 7%. Perhaps they were afraid to test the market for a rights issue, but that seems like a futile effort.

In any case we've come to year end reporting and according to information available to me corp banks like CFC have 65% as HTM bonds (NIC 48% and DTBK 91%). But is there ever a scenario where these banks could be forced to value their HTM portfolio to market? Forced by reporting standards or CBK? I'd assume with all the buyback activity in Q4 the exposure would be low though.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#89 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 9:02:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

Thanks for your complements...am glad to be of assistance whenever I can. That's what we are all here for in this forum i.e. learn and help each other.

For the CfC bond, I do agree that there four reasons are plausible. And I believe that we have already chatted about the capital rationale. Might you have any further queries on that bit...

Thereafter, we could try to figure out the liquidity and liability reasons. FYI, the banks tend to address the two together as they are inter -related.

As for the HTM bit, central banks generally prescribe the applicable accounting standards to be used in their jurisdictions - and am yet to hear of a situation where banks were forced to prepare their financials contrary to the accounting standards.

Regards
jmbada
#90 Posted : Saturday, January 08, 2011 9:55:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
To the 2 Scoobies....ABSOLUTELY love your posts! Extremely well-researched and very logical thinking. I've been reading as a guest for quite a while!
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